Ansid Capital

#Brazil ETF down 21% post elections. Politics always stays a risk in EMs. Notice how the market is stuck in a range for last 12 years. This is in USD terms. Be cautious of those who say equities always rise. Flat markets are a trend across the world, net of inflation & currency

Never miss an opportunity to make a bad international headline. How can the Govt (RBI) force #TataSons to list? If a company has no public capital, staying private is a choice. Invisible hand of the govt at work. If this can happen to #Tata , foreign capital stands no chance.

Celebrating 5 years of #PolicyBazaar IPO thread. Issue price ~ 1000 listing price- 1200 Your return after 5 years <5% 67% of ownership has been sold to retail & Mutual Funds at perfect prices. Owners have the money today. You carry all the risk. I told you so in 2021.

The legend signs off from #CNBC In a clutter of financial journalism, many speak, but only a few are remembered. There will never be another @RickSantelli

Starbucks hired #Chipotle CEO to undertake a similar turnaround in coffee biz. His solution? Acquire Chipotle! 😀

I speak to #CNBC about the upcoming #RelianceJio IPO. Indian company available at American prices. But you’ll scramble to buy this 3% stake anyway. Why buy ATnT or Verizon when you can get an Airtel or Jio at the same value? What could possibly go wrong? cnbc.com/2026/10/15/india-st…

SHORT POST: #RelianceJio IPO   I haven’t heard a single critique of this IPO from anyone so far. So on the festive season of Dussehra, that stands for the victory of good over evil, I don’t want to be the evil one. Having said this, here are some facts.   The basics The IPO is just a 3% share dilution that wipes off the Rs 30K debt. 3% sale will create a scramble & scarcity premium where people want to grab a share of the story. There is no real price discovery on such low free float. Jio is trying to benchmark Airtel at $110 - 120 BN and add a reliance growth premium to that. The strategy  for IPO pricing seems fine relative to India valuation basket. But the argument look overstretched when we compare to global players. Verizon and AT&T are valued at $177 BN & $154 BN respectively.   Jio at $16 Billion revenue & 14% growth rate (5 year avg), it may take another 20 years to catch up to AT&T revenues (Assume rupee depreciation rate of 4%). But Jio is asking for almost 70% of market cap as of the American peers today. So clearly, asking IPO price is not comparable internationally. But considering Airtel valuations, it seems okay.   The Headwinds: The listing would make Jio one of the top 5 companies in India on market cap. How much future returns do you expect from top 5 company in India for next decade? You decide.The buy case gets weaker when we examine the 14% revenue growth achieved largely on the growth of 530 Million subscribers. Compared to the avg ARPU of $45 for American counterparts, the ARPU for Indian wireless customers has stayed notoriously stagnant below  $2 per month (INR 200) since last 20 years (on nominal basis). So the bull case of rapidly improving ARPU looks like an impossibility given the experience of last 2 decades.   Final take: If this gets a listing pop or appreciation of 30%, we’re looking at the biggest telecom company in the world on market cap. Ready for that. ? In a market devoid of serious technology plays & overstretched valuations, investors would latch on to anything that promises enterprise technology driven future. The IPO market may be underestimating the investments that are needed to be that technology player vs what it is today – a utility telecom services provider. Hope that doesn’t make me the evil one. Enjoy the party. My discussion with NDTV Profit.

India is unique amongst global markets where 75% of the retail money is being invested in the mid and small caps. In every other bull markets most money flows to mkt leaders. This gush of liquidity has distorted Indian valuations to unrealistic levels. An NSE is valued as much as the NASDAQ, imagine that. Some day this distortion has to get corrected. I’m sure the retail investors would soon realise that money is not made just by throwing good money after bad. It may not happen tomorrow but the day of reckoning is coming up. My discussion at @NDTVProfit this morning.

US 10 year yield is about to dip below 5% any moment now. So much for the noise about US debt levels.

“The party is on and everyone is dancing high on mid & small caps. But it’s a party paid by other people’s money. The clock has no hands but we’re getting closer to midnight. Nothing good happens after midnight”. The SMID valuations in India are a joke. This was last week.

Just in : #SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share that values it at $1.75 Trillion. If you were trying to make sense of IPO prices, pls don’t. They just make it up. As long as you buy it.

Buy call on large cap IT: Change of stance Almost everyone in India markets was buying #TCS at 4000 in 2021-22. Even when Tata Sons sold some stake. Funds were happy to accumulate. Today, at 2200, nearly everyone is suggesting a sell. The only sector that’s available at reasonable valuation is a consensus sell by the domestic funds. Some are even talking about chucking IT cos out of #Nifty50 index. Shows how short term momentum trading can grip investors. Buy at 4000 but sell at 2000. All within 3 years. How will domestic long term investors make money when everyone behaves like a short term trader? My take - large cap IT is the only reasonable value sector today followed by large banks. You can buy for superior long term returns and dividends. Everything else is a wealth killer. Just like last few years. Caution- it may still correct by 20%. FIIs may still sell IT as #Accenture & #TCS have same market cap. They hold $100 BN of IT. But that’s the India capital control at work. That will stay. My discussion on @ETNOWlive

CANADA: An illusion of growth? #Canada growth per capita is actually negative for past decade of #Trudeau govt. A lost decade really. More immigration doesn’t make citizens rich. It just improves headline growth. A perfect example of politicians misleading citizens ! #FT

Celebrating 5th anniversary of #SBICard IPO thread You bought a patriotic #IPO at Rs 775 Reality: A widow dressed story Private equity made 9x in 18 months. You made zero in 5 years #SBI FD would have been better. You know that now. I TOLD YOU SO in March 2020 !

#WarrenBuffett ‘s cash call of $325 BN ie ~50% of portfolio does make sense after all. When stocks are pricing too much optimism, all risk lies with the investors Funds won’t teach you this. Markets certainly will ! #BerkshireHathaway

Private Equity Playbook Invest $1 BN just before IPO Create illusion of value at $10 BN Window dress for 18 months List at 3x to 5x of initial cap Exit in next 18 months Retail & #DIIs left holding a bhujiya firm worth $30 to $50 BN. Your Returns? 🤔