Antenna

Wow, the Emmys bump is real. Widow's Bay – this year's Outstanding Comedy Series – had a massive Emmys bump. Widow's Bay Sign-ups to Apple TV following its Emmys win(s), far exceeded those during even its original premiere window back in April.

Major kudos to @eshap for hosting an incredible #MediaUniverseSummit at StreamTV Show. One surprising thing: all of the panelists on the panel I joined agreed on 3 key things when asked, 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘒𝘗𝘐𝘴? 𝟭) 𝗖𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗝𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘆: Most overrated metrics are (a) viewers and (b) subscribers. It's all about the journey. What brought them in? What engaged them? What kept them there? What stole them away? 𝟮) 𝗦𝗲𝗴𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Audiences are not a monolithic group. Different cohorts behave differently. Without segment-specific intelligence, you're flying blind. 𝟯) 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 > 𝗔𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Acquisition is sexy. Big budget titles. New user spikes. But retention is where the money is made. Everyone expected a huge shift in prioritization towards retention within organizations.

When it comes to understanding the value of programming on streaming, Netflix wrote the manual. One of their key metrics is "Adjusted View Share". Do at-risk subscribers overindex as viewers of a given title? If yes, adjust the value of that title upwards. After all, that cohort might have churned without it! With @AntennaData's Subscriber Views offering studios & creatives can now assess Adjusted View Share across the market. Let's look at a couple of my favorite shows of the past year on Apple TV: The Morning Show vs. Pluribus – In the month of its S4 premiere, 17% of The Morning Show Viewers were Light Viewers on Apple TV – In the month of its series premiere, 31% of Pluribus Viewers were Light Viewers on Apple TV Translation: a lot of Pluribus Viewers weren't otherwise engaged on Apple TV (relative to The Morning Show). Of course, TMS was a returning show, so you'd expect a higher returning fan base but, nonetheless, it's likely that Pluribus re-engaged or "saved" a higher proportion of Apple TV Subscribers.

THE RATINGS ERA IS OVER. IT’S TIME TO GO BEYOND RATINGS AND UNDERSTAND WHICH SHOWS DRIVE ACQUISITION, ENGAGEMENT, AND RETENTION. For decades, cable TV has relied on ratings. By knowing how many people watched a show, programmers could build their schedules to create blocks of must-see TV and set advertising prices to reach those audiences. But it’s no longer enough to know how many people watched a show. You need to know which shows draw new viewers, which shows keep them with you, and what else they're watching that might lure them away. Today @AntennaData launches Subscriber Views. Subscriber Views goes beyond ratings to consider not only who watched, but what they did before and after tuning in. It is the same type of sophisticated content analytics that streamers already do on their first-party data, but for the entire market. On a personal level, I’ve spent the past decade focused on helping media brands use data to build healthier, thriving businesses — and I feel like we’re on the cusp of the largest impact yet.

HOT OFF THE PRESS: @AntennaData's latest STATE OF SUBSCRIPTIONS report. My 2 cents: Churn has been a hot topic in the industry. And it's true. Overall Churn Rates have TRIPLED since we started measuring the category in 2019. BUT, there's much more to the story. Where is all this Churn coming from? It's coming from NEWER, more CASUAL users, who have not been Subscribed to a service for years. Subscriber Churn Rate in year 1 is DOUBLE year 2 Churn. That means that new users to your service are much more likely to Churn than users who have been with you for years. When you think about Netflix's lower Churn Rate in this context, it makes all the sense in the world. TWO-THIRDS of Netflix's Subscribers have been Subscribed to the service for 4+ years — and we know that those Subscribers have virtually zero Churn. Whereas, for every other service, most of their Subscribers are much newer. Netflix's competitors are focused on building user trust and winning loyalty with fickle users in a way that Netflix has already done — and it's showing up in overall Churn Rate differential. So, what's the bottom line here? Like every other retail category, it is becoming increasingly clear that streaming services must treat their LOYAL and CASUAL users differently. Rather than thinking about a total Subscriber number, services will differentiate between loyals and casuals. For example, rather than Disney reporting ~150 million global Subscribers across their services, they may report that 25% of those 150 million are loyals with virtually no Churn, while 75% are casuals – and their plan is to maintain the number of total Subscribers while 10x'ing the ARPU of the 25% loyals. Of course, with this reframe, it would likely send the stock soaring as financial analysts back into the requisite increases in revenue & profitability. Out of the ashes of streaming's hyper growth phase, a new HEALTHY growth phase is on the precipice — one that's modeled after all the retail paradigms before streaming.