Lambo 🍌

BTC is now institutional collateral and interconnected with tradfi. The whole concept around selling your crypto at some mystical top and off-ramping to a bank, then waiting an arbitrary length of time to on-ramp again, is flawed concept. Firstly, the risk to keeping money in crypto were related to 3 factors: 1. Fear of Tether exit scamming 2. Fear of exchanges going bankrupt 3. Fear of getting funds stolen 1 and 2 are clearly a non issue in 2025 unless your using some shady small non kyc exchange. 3 is still a very real risk and I always say people should keep majority of their funds in the big 3 exchanges vs in a wallet. I’m not saying don’t off-ramp, but the purpose to do it now is realising gains to change your life at any point in time + psychological benefit to feeling “realised”. Secondly, clearly BTC moved away from the old 4 year cycle template, in 2024 with the introduction of ETF’s. Because no you don’t get to liquid 10x your net worth every few years because of some made up template that even my grandfather is aware of. As an example, if NVDIA runs 500% in 2 years do you see tradfi folk frantically pull all their money out? Ofcourse not because they don’t follow an expected template on how cycles play out. Their expectations around NVDIA are nuanced and multi variant in their approach. They are asking questions like expected growth/revenue, is the governments fiscal spending directly benefitting this company, is there a risk of the economy collapsing, what data should I be looking at to understand these risks? Beyond that, there’s hedging, rolling, rebalancing etc etc. Similarly when assessing BTC, rather than understanding what the asset actually is, they take the non rational approach like arbitrary lengths of time and dates. Let me explain in literal caveman terms: If BTC is a hedge against government printing, and the government is in the process of fiscally printing more than it has in its entire history to grow its way out of debt. While at the same time you are trying to top call the entire industry every 2 weeks then sir, you need to take a long break and reassess how you view the markets. At the very least try and figure out the larger meta at play. This whole concept around demanding certainty on an expected time horizon is asking the wrong question. The real questions would be: what conditions would force marginal sellers or unlock new buyers? I am not saying cycles don’t exist, everything in life is cyclical, but there is no set template to this now. We could run another 1 month or 3 years.