Investigative journalism - exposing fraud - information arbitrage nothing I post is financial advice, everything is to the best of my knowledge and belief
Joined June 2023
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Apollo Research retweeted
UPDATE: Remember when Bloom claimed its supply chain is “not dependent on China” after Hunterbrook’s reporting?
New trade records show $BE seems to have quietly restarted a Chinese supply route for scandium-containing fuel cell parts.
Apollo Research retweeted
We Are Short International Games System Co., Ltd.
Profits and Dividends Depend Heavily on Risky, Illegal Southeast Asian Online Gambling Operations
Read our New Report Here: grizzlyreports.com/igs/
Apollo Research retweeted
I’m excited to present tomorrow at @SohnConf San Francisco. We’ll be unveiling the results of many months of investigative work.
Apollo Research retweeted
NEW REPORT: $FRVO
Fervo Energy: Big Tech's Clean Energy Bet Is Unraveling — Hidden Setbacks, A Litany Of Existential Issues & A Commercial Build Out Destined For Failure
Full 50-Page Report -> morpheus-research.com/fervo
(1/x)
Apollo Research retweeted
We are Short Raiffeisen Bank International AG. $RBI $RBI.VI
Our New Report is out Now: Raiffeisen Bank International-Linked Customs Records Show $1.19 Billion in Trade Matching Sanctions and Export-Control Restrictions While €12.6 Billion Remains Trapped in Russia
Read our Report Here: grizzlyreports.com/rbi/
Apollo Research retweeted
$SRAD: someone impersonated @muddywatersre in an attempt to render coverage of our Sportradar report invisible. This person has previously claimed to act on behalf of 1xBet, an illegal gambling behemoth whose founders are fugitives from justice. Why does this matter? 🧵 1/
Someone posed as one short seller to get another short seller's research de-indexed from Google.
We followed the trail. It leads to a gambling operator.
activ8insights.com/betting-o…
Apollo Research retweeted
I didn't realize Serenity deleted his posts; just was looking for a post of my own when I came upon this one... and poof it's gone
He called for a $10B market cap for $LPTH "soon" back in January
That would equate to $185 price per share. The sheep went in... and got sheared soon after.
Be very wary of those who delete their history
Very wary
I can only imagine what else has been deleted. This was a person who claimed they liquidated almost all their common equity and went all in, in crypto in February. But suddenly is in every photonics stock in the world. Never a word about exiting the crypto
It's so much BS
Just for reference reddit lady's $10B market cap would equate to $185 per share at current share count. $LPTH
I am more bullish than probably anyone on this planet on the stonk but... yeah.
$300Mish revenue towards end of decade x 12 price to sales is $3.6B mkt cap. That's my moving target that will be adjusted every interview, conference call, conference, investor presentation as need be.
$400M revenue is $4.8B
Also there is another $140M in the ATM for future dilution so these #s will morph. Share count will increase due to acquisitions and rewarding new execs, current execs, there is still dilution for G5 performance markers to come etc.
It is easy to throw stuff against the wall.
But I support this pump.
Apollo Research retweeted
shocker, like 99% of gurus out there, no dollar amount. I swear I might be the only person trading a book of decent size out there, all these guys are too ashamed to show how much conviction they have
teapaw.org/aleabitoreddit/status/…
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.
My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.
I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:
- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”
And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.
But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.
And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.
I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.
Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.
Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
Apollo Research retweeted
Do people want to know who Serenity is?
At some point we should probably publish our piece of investigative reporting on who @aleabitoreddit really is — and what he was up to before he found $AXTI, $SIVE, etc.
would people, like, wanna read that?
Apollo Research retweeted
Big news: Hunterbrook Media is acquiring The Bear Cave, one of the most influential investigative newsletters in finance.
Over the last six years, @StockJabber has produced a remarkable amount of truth-to-power reporting — and he's done it as a one-man shop.
But in the golden age of grift and graft, more stories need to be written; wrongdoing needs to be exposed, and digging needs to be done. That’s why we’re partnering.
It’s a good day to subscribe to @BearCaveEmail — and a bad day for bad actors, wherever they may hide.
Apollo Research retweeted
MW is short $ENSG. We believe Ensign rents Administrator licenses at est. ~20% of its SNFs to deceive CMS & the states. We estimate compliance alone cuts 2027 EBIT ~35% vs consensus & slows growth from ~11% to ~2%. FCA exposure possibly in Billions of $. Report link follows
Apollo Research retweeted
We are Short Pirelli & C. S.P.A. $PIRC
We Believe Pirelli’s Secret Dependence and Close Relationships with Russia Pose a Threat to Western National Security
Read our New Report here: grizzlyreports.com/pirelli/
Apollo Research retweeted
Restaurants have seen their valuations decline over the last few years as rising costs have eaten into profits and diners have rebelled to some extent.
Still, certain concepts, like $CAVA, command a valuation of >$20M per unit despite just $3M in AUV (6.8x) and 27.1x RL EBITDA
Apollo Research retweeted
0/ NEW FROM US: Amprius Technologies: Exaggerated Orders, Hollow Manufacturing Partners, and Major Related Party Transactions
Apollo Research retweeted
We are Short Ottobock SE & Co. KGaA $OBCK $OBCK.DE
How Hans Georg Näd er’s Margin Loan and Russia Business Endanger Public Shareholders
grizzlyreports.com/ottobock/
Apollo Research retweeted
Tomorrow at 10:30am ET, The Bear Cave will publish on a $5 billion+ company that has sold its long-term future with short-term thinking.
It’s worked so far and this company is one of the best-performing in its industry. Our investigation will turn the tide.
Catch you tomorrow
Apollo Research retweeted
13 Red Flags That Suggest Blaize Holdings Is A Total Fraud – 25c PT
$BZAI
whitediamondresearch.com/res…
Apollo Research retweeted
We arrived at our conclusions independently and 100% agree with @callistores re $SRAD
NEW REPORT: We are short Sportradar Group AG $SRAD, a self-styled "Sports Integrity" leader with ties to illegal gambling, sanctioned parties, criminals, and a completely fake regulator. We believe Sportradar’s ties to illegality pose an existential threat.🧵