@ApplesAndBerry

The Mudwater Math guy. NFA. DYOR. Also just here for the ride and good vibes!

 San Francisco
Joined August 2021
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  • Followers8.1K
922Media
Picked up the holos of these. IMO these are way undervalued, they represent the GOAT Apefests. Hong Kong, Lisbon, and Vegas. These are getting slabbed and going next to my posters 馃敟 @BoredApeYC 馃
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1/ Mudwater pack math, v5. This morning ripping beat selling sealed by a rounding error. Tonight it's not close. Pack floor fell 19% since 9 AM. Card prices didn't flinch. Rip wins by ~0.17 SOL a pack. Thread for the @BoredApeYC 馃У
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8/ What changed: the sealed side cracked. Since 9 AM pack supply went 17,462 to 18,031 and listings 471 to 559. 153 offers got accepted in 24h at a 0.69 median. Cards barely moved. That gap is the whole trade.
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9/ Caveats: the 12h floor is a rebuild (cancelled listings are invisible). Legendary Foil: 1 sale in 24h, none in 12h (so 12h EV counts it as 0). Card volume is down about a third, so card prices can catch down to packs fast. NFA, just my spreadsheet. #Mudwater
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1/ Mudwater pack math, v4 @BoredApeYC 馃 Yesterday I said don't rip. Overnight the pack floor slid 8% and cards held up. On the last 24h of sales, ripping now beats selling sealed at floor. By about a dollar.
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8/ What changed: pack sellers blinked. 101 offers got accepted in 24h at a 0.77 median and dragged the floor while cards kept clearing. Card EV up ~5%, pack floor down ~8%. That spread is the whole trade.
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9/ Caveats: the 12h floor is a rebuild (cancelled listings are invisible). 24h Legendary Foil value rests on 1 sale. A 9 AM edge can be gone by noon. NFA, just my spreadsheet. #Mudwater
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Hot take: digital Mudwater cards beat the physical ones. Not even close. 3 reasons @BoredApeYC 馃У
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3/ Digital feels forever. No bent corners. No sun fading. No water damage. No mom throwing out the box. My cards will look exactly the same in 20 years. My physical Pok茅mon cards from 1999 can't say that.
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TL;DR Digital = provable sets, APE rewards, cards that never age. Physical = a closet and a prayer. I've picked my side 馃儚 馃
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