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$NBIS is NOT a buy at these levels.
…..
It’s a load the boat. Risk/reward is incredible here.
1. Expected blowout earnings in 1 month.
2. Stock below 200MA, where it’s bounced off every time during its bull run.
3. Iran-US peace deal rumors - oil downside risk high.
4. Price fell rapidly due to sentiment, not fundamentals.
5. Hyperscalers $AMZN $MSFT $META report next week - anticipated large capex spend will solidify compute demand and even shortages.
6. Berlin GTC starts tomorrow - Nebius in the past has used this venue to announce large deals and partnerships.
7. Q3 will give first insight into demand for $NVDA’s new Groq 3 LPX agentic chip platform; I anticipate demand will be through the roof.
Upside risk here is substantial. Personally, I’m expecting an extremely sharp recovery into consolidation before earnings, and earnings deciding direction from there. My earnings bias is also heavily bullish, this will be a pivotal earnings as we see if Nebius can continue to beat and raise in a compute and power constrained environment.
BREAKING: A breakthrough has been reached between the United States and Iran, both sides have agreed to preliminary measures concerning Iran’s nuclear program, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and financial incentives for Tehran.
China and Russia are set to be guarantors of the agreement, the Iranian delegation has flown to Doha alongside the Qatari mediators to continue negotiations later today, according to Qatari Al Araby Al Jadeed.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The report of a confirmed US-Iran breakthrough and agreed measures relies on unverified claims from anonymous sources in one Qatari outlet; Axios and other diplomatic reporting describe ongoing mediation with positive progress but no confirmed agreement or direct talks.
alaraby.co.uk/politics/%D8%A…
axios.com/2026/10/31/qat…
israel.com/news/qatari-pa…
This actually looks like it might have some teeth.
Key points from preliminary draft framework for US-Iran negotiations obtained exclusively by Al Arabiya English:
🔴 Iran could transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to an agreed third country or reduce its enrichment level
🔴 The Strait of Hormuz could reopen to international maritime traffic within seven days of an initial understanding
🔴 China could potentially serve as a guarantor of the implementation and sustainability of any agreement
🔴 Direct US-Iran negotiations could be held in Doha instead of Istanbul
🔴 Iranian measures on the nuclear file and maritime security would be matched by clearly defined US measures to ease sanctions, blockades and economic restrictions
🔴 An independent verification mechanism would assess compliance before each subsequent phase of implementation
🔴 Neither side would be required to make substantial concessions without receiving corresponding, independently verifiable commitments
🔴 A dispute-resolution mechanism involving mediators and guarantor parties would address delays or violations to help prevent renewed military escalation
This gives all the hallmarks of a deleveraging event…
Perhaps now we may actually be able to sustain a rally
Well, I have to admit I was likely wrong. It seems the macro is putting too much pressure on stocks and now with lackluster Mag7 earnings (or so they were interpreted) there’s not much to keep it afloat anymore.
We’re losing macro range support right now on SPY and we formed a large bearish H&S. The only way for this to resolve bullishly would require massive and swift recovery. Not sure what could supply that other than an end to the war, but that’s not something to bet on at this point.
Apologies to any traders I mislead but just know you’re not alone and many got caught offsides. Seems we may need to wait this one out unless something changes in the next couple hours, or over the weekend.
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Everyone’s max bearish on my feed.
Wouldn’t it be funny to see a semi rally to carry the market forward. Hyperscalers are spending so much on compute they’re willing to destroy their balance sheets and stock in the process. $NVDA is the same price it was a year ago, and memory is still underpriced.
$NBIS consolidating before the next move up. This is bullish.
Rotation about to happen from Mag7 -> semis…
$NBIS dip is a necessary and healthy breather after a 25% move from the lows. Don’t be shocked when this $NBIS dip gets bought up and we’re over $200 before you can blink.
Rotation into semis and neoclouds has begun.
$GOOGL on call: "Given the supply constraint environment, we started utilizing third party compute capacity at the end of Q3 and will ramp usage in Q4. We expect margin headwinds in the near term as we utilize this capacity. Moving to investments, our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range of 195 to $205 billion remain unchanged. We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027, and will provide further details on our Q4 call."
$NBIS after hours drop is incredibly bullish. Shorts are doing their most, $200 this week confirmed
Are we gonna hit this tomorrow? $NBIS to $200
