Irregular crossings by Syrians into the EU continue to decrease since Assad's fall. Before December 2024, @Frontex detected around 4,000 Syrians a month at the EU's external borders. In 2025, the monthly average was 511. So far in 2026, it's 169. In April 2026, Frontex recorded just 75 detections, the lowest monthly figure since May 2011. The 2025 total of 6,126 was the lowest annual figure since 2011, and well below even the COVID year of 2020 (21,631). Detections in January–July 2026 were down 66% on the same period of 2025 and 95% on 2024. July did tick up to 373, mostly on the Aegean sea route, but this likely reflects seasonality, since more crossings happen in the summer months. Crossings also rose over summer 2025, and they remain a fraction of pre-transition levels. This is what researchers have long argued: conflict, not poverty, is the main driver of irregular migration. Syria is still one of the poorest countries in the world. Yet once the immediate threat of violence and arbitrary detention receded, so did the impulse to risk a deadly crossing. The transition has not made Syria prosperous quite yet. But it may have made it survivable, and for many, that is enough to stay.