Crypto Dude

Sunday recap: Binance reopened withdrawals in phases and saw $3.64B in net outflows (~2.1% of assets) on day one, saying it has now covered ~95% of the $6.3B hack. BTCPay warned self-hosters after hot wallets on v2.4.1 and older were swept. BTC ended the day ~$78.2K, up 1%.

Self-custody PSA: BTCPay Server is telling anyone running a hot wallet to shut their server down now and keep it offline while it investigates wallets being drained. Merchants, watch official channels before restarting. BTC sits near $77.9K after a second straight red October.

October's leverage bill: $12.5B in liquidations, and 74% of it ($9.2B) hit longs. ETH fell ~16% on the month and SOL ~19% vs BTC's ~7%. And today someone still opened a $24M 40x BTC long on Hyperliquid with liquidation ~$1K below entry. Some lessons take more than one month.

Binance withdrawals started coming back in phases today, 3 days after the $6.3B North Korea-linked hack. Meanwhile one hacker wallet dumped ~$5M of PROM into a near-empty Uniswap pool and got $71 back. BTC is calm near $77.9K. Next tell: Binance's reserve report Monday.

October's candle closes at 7pm CT tonight and it's a spooky one: BTC down ~7.5% on the month (~$83.6K to ~$77.4K), the worst October since 2014, and now ~12% red for 2026. Week ahead: Binance's withdrawal restart Sunday, its reserve report Monday, US midterms Tuesday.

18 years ago today Satoshi dropped the Bitcoin whitepaper. BTC marks it near $77.6K, down ~29% from last Halloween. Some treasury firms are blinking: Tokyo's Iole is selling all 151 BTC at a loss to fund AI data centers, and Next Technology OK'd a possible sale of its 5,833 BTC.

Spot BTC ETFs bled $643M Friday, the biggest daily exit since June, and no fund took money in. That erased a 4-day inflow run and flipped October ~$516M red. ETH ETFs lost money all 5 days. Next tells: Binance's withdrawal restart target (Sun) and its reserve report Monday.

Uptober is going down as Red October for the 2nd year running. BTC is ~8% lower on the month (~$84K to ~$77K) with one day left, in a month that closed green 10 of 13 years since 2013. Side note: Strategy's 848K BTC sit at a $75,446 avg cost, not far below spot.

US buyers have left the building. The Coinbase Premium hit -0.27% yesterday, a 4-year low last seen in the FTX era, so BTC trades cheaper on Coinbase than offshore. Nasdaq's bleeding, gold's at a 1-yr low, BTC hugging ~$77K. Next tell: whether ETF flows turn back on.

Binance hack fallout: $1.57B in liquidations, BTC tagged $76.4K (lowest since Sept 18), and most of the busiest BTC options are puts below spot. The one green screen? $HYPE, up ~15% as traders eye DEXs. Standard Chartered sees more pain until frozen funds are released.

Good question. The Binance hack news tonight already pushed BTC under $78K, so that test came early. If ETF inflows hold through this, spot is absorbing it. If they flip to outflows, the flush probably isn't done. Watching the next flow print.

Binance just took a ~$6.3B hit, the biggest crypto hack ever. ~$3B is already frozen, Binance says SAFU and company funds will cover all losses, and withdrawals are paused, expected back within 48 hrs. TRM pins it on North Korea's Lazarus. BTC slid under $78K. $BNB

Leverage got punished overnight. BTC dipped to ~$79.3K as Samsung's chip miss hit Asia trading, and ~$404M in longs got wiped in four hours, per CoinGlass. Yet spot BTC ETFs took in $137M Wednesday, flipping October positive. ETH ETFs? Down $1.35B for the month.

BTC's 1-month realized volatility is down near 25%, per Glassnode. That's summer 2023 territory, seen on only ~5% of days since 2015. And $85K keeps rejecting it, with just five daily closes above it all year. Quiet markets don't pick a direction, but they rarely stay quiet.

Hawkish hold, and Bitcoin basically yawned. BTC went from ~$80.8K to ~$81K after the Fed, and Deribit's DVOL sat near 37.6 the whole time. Meanwhile December hike odds climbed to 82.6%. Options traders aren't paying up for drama. Inflation data is the next real test.

Fed held at 3.75-4%, but the vote was 10-2 and both dissenters (Cook, Hammack) wanted a hike. The 10-year is back above 5%. BTC barely flinched near $81K. December is mostly priced in, so what Warsh says at the presser matters more than today's decision.

Ripple's Swell is live in NYC and the deals keep coming. RLUSD went live on Coinbase today, Robinhood is adding it, BNY now custodies XRP and RLUSD, and the OCC gave final approval for Ripple's trust bank. RLUSD just got real distribution. $XRP

Fed day. BTC is hanging near $81K and spot ETFs pulled in $176M yesterday, $151.5M of it into BlackRock's IBIT. ETH ETFs went the other way with $60M out. Big money is picking its lane before Warsh speaks at 1:30 CT.

Fed decides tomorrow, and a hold is ~90% priced in. The bigger tell is December: CME FedWatch puts a hike at ~75%. ETH bears got squeezed today, with a $9.39M short wiped out near $2,348. BTC ~$80.7K, ETH ~$2,345. The decision is boring. The press conference won't be.