Neuroscience 🧠🔬
Canada
Joined February 2023
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Abdel retweeted
$NVO has now broken out
People got afraid of this when it dropped from $60 to $36
But the fundamentals stayed strong, so we added at $38.
This is what I said on April 21st:
'$NVO can 10 X from here to complete a standard impulse count
Buy at $40 and hold to $400.
+5% Dividend'
$NVO can 10 X from here to complete a standard impulse count
Buy at $40 and hold to $400.
+5% Dividend
Abdel retweeted
Keep an eye on this
$NVO is about to form a golden cross
The last time it did, it ran 172%
Will history repeat?
Let's see
Abdel retweeted
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Abdel retweeted
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Abdel retweeted
Pay attention to multi year breakouts in industries that heavily benefit from AI that experienced their round one hype cycle already sitting at lows ready to experience their value matching cycle.
Abdel retweeted
I went through every earnings call across the entire 800G and 1.6T supply chain and mapped out the actual supply vs. demand.
The $LITE CEO said it best: "We are significantly under shipping demand. It's certainly greater than that 30% number. We are having to make choices as to who we support."
> $LITE has every laser it can make through the end of 2027 already sold.
> $AAOI is expanding capacity 10x and the CEO still said demand will outrun it through mid-2027.
> $FN said demand far exceeded what they shipped last quarter. Named lasers as the first constraint.
> $CIEN added $600M to its backlog in a single quarter. Now sitting at $7.7B.
> $CSCO raised its hyperscaler AI order guidance from $5B to $9B mid-year with one quarter left. That is purchase orders. Not projections.
Full report is free to read. Link in replies or link in bio.
Where supply vs demand actually stands in optics right now, straight from the latest earnings calls.
$LITE is sold out. Their CEO quantified undershipping demand by more than 30% and said they are having to choose which customers to support. EML capacity is locked in LTAs through 2027.
$AAOI is scaling from 100k to 930k units per month by end of 2027 and still forecasts demand exceeding capacity through mid 2027.
$COHR has bookings into calendar 2028 and is doubling indium phosphide capacity twice in 18 months. They called the InP constraint industry wide.
$FN said demand far exceeded what they were able to ship and named the constraint as lasers, not assembly.
$CIEN backlog hit $7.7B, up $2.6B in six months. $CSCO raised hyperscaler AI orders from $5B to $9B mid year.
Add it up and the 800G/1.6T market is running roughly 27 to 30% undersupplied. If CPO is pushed to 2028, this is the supply chain that carries the entire AI buildout for two more years.
Sold out, with no replacement coming.
Abdel retweeted
$SIVE will hold its Annual General Meeting on Monday, June 15 2026
At this meeting, it will be proposed to authorize the board of directors to issue new shares and stock options
Which would represent an approximate dilution of 15% of the share capital
The purpose of this authorization is to provide flexibility
To raise capital to finance the company's operations
Support its continued expansion
Including potential future acquisitions
And facilitate an eventual dual listing of the shares on the New York Nasdaq
At first glance, this dilution seems bad
But it is the best possible news
Why would you raise so much money if you didn't expect to scale vertically
It is more than necessary and there could be a drop that would be a great entry point
Although part of it might already be priced in
It is also worth remembering that shares entering the market also dilute
It's not just those selling out of panic who are going to cause a drop
Very bullish for $SIVE
Especially if they clarify things about the listing on the New York Nasdaq
Abdel retweeted
If you plan on trading the SpaceX, $SPCX, IPO today, here are our pointers:
When an IPO debuts, the stabilizing agent attempts to minimize volatility and maintain orderly market conditions.
However, there will be extreme volatility at the open which means you must exercise caution:
1. AVOID using market orders as bid/ask spreads can widen significantly
2. Use LIMIT orders until trading conditions stabilize
Additionally, if you were allocated shares at the $135 IPO price, be aware of your brokerage's IPO "flipping policy."
Examples include:
1. Fidelity: Selling within 15 calendar days can result in losing access to future IPO allocations for 6 months, with harsher penalties for repeat violations
2. Robinhood: Selling within 30 days can restrict access to future IPOs for 60 days
3. ETrade: Selling within 30 days may impact eligibility for future IPO allocations
Before trading, be sure to review your brokerage's IPO policies.
Bookmark this post and turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
We will be covering the historic IPO in real-time.
Abdel retweeted
All you need is an LLM and YouTube to learn how to sell options.
I learned in one week.
Probably no more than 10 hrs of studying TOTAL.
People always ask me how I learned to sell options…
I learned using AI tools like ChatGPT as well as Youtube.
Do the following with any LLM:
1. Take a snapshot of a potential cash secured put or covered call trade.
2. Upload it into the LLM and ask it to explain how the trade works.
Here is a prompt you can put into ChatGPT that will review a potential trade for you and will give you a run down of all the things you need to know about the cash secured put or covered call:
Options Trade Breakdown Prompt
You are a professional options trader and elite educator.
I am going to upload a screenshot of an options trade (from Robinhood or another broker).
Your job is to analyze the trade directly from the image and teach me exactly what is happening so I fully understand it at both a beginner and advanced level.
⸻
📊 When analyzing the image, follow this exact structure:
1. What Am I Looking At (Plain English)
Explain this trade like I have zero experience:
•What type of trade is this (covered call, CSP, naked call, etc.)
•What I am doing in simple terms
•Why someone would make this trade
⸻
2. Break Down Every Data Point on the Screen
Go line by line and explain:
•Ticker and current stock price
•Strike price
•Expiration date
•Premium (credit received)
•Number of contracts / shares
•Limit price vs bid/ask
•Max profit, breakeven, max loss
Explain what each of these actually means in real dollars and real outcomes.
⸻
3. What Are My Obligations?
Explain clearly:
•What I am required to do if the trade goes against me
•What happens if the stock goes above the strike
•What happens if it stays below
•Early assignment risk
⸻
4. Profit & Loss Scenarios (Real Numbers)
Walk through:
•Best case scenario
•Worst case scenario
•Break-even outcome
•What happens if the stock:
•Rips higher
•Stays flat
•Dumps hard
Use the exact numbers from the trade.
⸻
5. Risk Analysis (This is Key)
Break down:
•How much capital is actually at risk
•The real max loss (not just what the app says)
•Opportunity cost (what I might miss out on)
•Hidden risks beginners don’t see
⸻
6. Greeks Explained for THIS Trade
Explain in simple terms:
•Delta → probability & exposure
•Theta → how I make money over time
•Vega → how volatility impacts this trade
Tie it directly to THIS exact position.
⸻
7. Is This a Good Trade?
Give an honest evaluation:
•Is this a high probability setup?
•Are the parameters solid? (strike, premium, DTE)
•Would a professional trader take this? Why or why not?
⸻
8. How to Improve This Trade
If applicable:
•Better strike selection
•Better expiration (DTE)
•How to increase premium or reduce risk
•Alternative strategy (if smarter)
⸻
9. Trade Management Plan
Teach me what to do AFTER placing it:
•When to take profit
•When to roll
•When to close early
•How to handle assignment
⸻
10. Key Lessons (Make Me Better)
Summarize:
•What I should learn from this trade
•Mistakes to avoid
•Rules I can reuse going forward
⸻
🎯 Additional Instructions:
•Assume I want to MASTER options selling
•Keep explanations simple but powerful
•Use real numbers from the image
•Don’t sugarcoat risk
•Think like a mentor who actually trades
Abdel retweeted
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Abdel retweeted
Der 100-Jahre-Plan für den Aktienmarkt
Wenn du dir die letzten 100 Jahre anschaust, siehst du ein klares Muster: Der Markt wiederholt immer wieder die gleichen Zyklen. Seit der Großen Depression 1930 gab es drei große Abwärtsphasen und drei Aufwärtsphasen .
Wir stecken gerade mitten im dritten großen Bullenmarkt.
Die schlechten Zeiten (Bärenmärkte)
Diese Phasen dauerten meistens etwa 9 Jahre (die Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1930 war mit 12 Jahren eine Ausnahme). Ein typisches Zeichen war, dass der Markt zweimal oben und zweimal unten „anklopfte“, bevor es wieder aufwärts ging. Oft krachte der Kurs bis zu einer bestimmten langfristigen Linie (dem 300er-Schnitt im Monatschart) und startete von dort aus neu durch.
Die guten Zeiten (Bullenmärkte)
Die ersten beiden großen Aufwärtsphasen dauerten jeweils 24 und 25 Jahre. Das Spannende: Sobald der Markt einmal Fahrt aufgenommen hatte, fiel er fast nie unter eine bestimmte grüne Linie (den 100er-Schnitt). Die blaue Linie (50er-Schnitt) war dabei immer die beste Chance, um günstig nachzukaufen, wenn es mal zwischendurch ruckelte.
Warum steigt der Markt so extrem?
Hinter jedem Bullenmarkt steckt eine neue Technologie:
Früher waren es industrielle Durchbrüche.
Dann kam der Internet-Boom.
Heute erleben wir den E-Commerce- und Social-Media-Boom.
Klar, irgendwann platzen diese Blasen immer, weil die Leute übertreiben. Aber die Technik bleibt! Das Internet ist nicht verschwunden, nur weil die Kurse im Jahr 2000 abgestürzt sind – es wurde zum Fundament für alles, was wir heute nutzen.
Der KI-Boom
Wir sind jetzt im zweiten Teil des aktuellen Aufschwungs, und der wird von der Künstlichen Intelligenz getrieben. Wahrscheinlich wird diese Blase um das Jahr 2034 platzen. Das wird wehtun, aber danach wird KI das feste Rückgrat unserer gesamten Wirtschaft sein.
Im Grunde sind die letzten 100 Jahre eine Kette von Erfindungen, die die Kurse immer höher treiben. Die Abstürze zwischendurch sind nur dazu da, die heiße Luft rauszulassen und Platz für neues Geld und die nächste Technologie zu machen.
Was bedeutet das für dich heute?
Wenn dieser Zyklus so läuft wie die letzten beiden, könnte der S&P 500 bis auf 17.000 Punkte steigen.
Es wird zwischendurch immer wieder Korrekturen geben. Der Zoll-Crash Anfang 2025 war so ein Moment, hat aber die wichtige blaue Linie nicht ganz berührt.
Schau auf den RSI-Anzeiger. Wenn der unter 30 fällt, ist das eine Chance des Jahrzehnts. Das ist in 100 Jahren erst sechsmal passiert – und jedes Mal war es der perfekte Zeitpunkt zum Kaufen.
Liken, Folgen, Speichern, Kommentieren, Teilen.
Danke für den Support 🫶😊🫶
Abdel retweeted
If retail knew how to take profits and hold onto them they'd be the most lethal traders. The issue is they get overconfident in periods of euphoria, get blinded to the fact that conditions will change, and then emotional trading resurfaces and they give it all back.
Abdel retweeted
This question misunderstand the situation. SP500 is basically just M2. maybe 2%, max 3%, of real growth. The rest is just the devaluation of dollars. There is no “exit liquidity”, the price of everything just goes up in perpetuity as more dollars added to the system chase the same amount of goods and services.
Abdel retweeted
orange juice is a superfood. it's one of the greatest anti inflammatory and antioxidants known to man.
this study shows that if you drink orange juice with a high fat mcdonalds meal, it cancels out the inflammatory effects.
you need more fresh OJ in your life.
