Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
Joined April 2024
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Quant Chad retweeted
Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
Quant Chad retweeted
LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief !
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal :
- The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
Quant Chad retweeted
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE.
The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
Quant Chad retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
Quant Chad retweeted
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head.
If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket?
Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema:
-- Polymarket is now far behind Kalshi, with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation.
-- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping
-- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token.
Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys.
If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call:
1) @AsiffHirji
- Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue.
- Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé.
- Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps.
2) Heath Tarbert.
- Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy).
- Best answer to the regulator problem.
- Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose.
3) Chris Concannon
- Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe.
- Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick.
- Catch: zero crypto
If it ever happened:
• Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot
• Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter
• Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe
Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
Quant Chad retweeted
Breaking: The employee of OpenAI arrested for planting an audio recording device in the company's executive conference room was identified
as @gainzy222
A bisexual crypto streamer based in Tel Aviv
Quant Chad retweeted
Retail lost $280M trading on Hyperliquid
The 400k wallets trading through 3rd party apps (Phantom, Metamask etc.) are down -$712 each on average.
This is the reason Hyperliquid is winning so hard
Let me explain
1. RETAIL FLOW ATTRACTS WHALES
Whales need dumb counter parties.
Trading against other whales is hard and risky. No one wants that.
To be consistently profitable, whales want unsophisticated retails making bad bets to trade against.
This is called “soft flow”
2. SOFT FLOW CREATES REVENUE
-> More soft flow
-> more food for whales
-> more trading volume
-> more fees for Hyperliquid.
PerpDex and Prediction Markets will tell you that, contrary to Sports book, they don't trade against their user.
It's true in absolute but it doesn't mean that they don't profit from their losses.
If there was no losers (retail), whales would eat each other, become unprofitable and ultimately leave the platform.
Retail losses are the blood flow of any trading platform.
The more money retail loses, the more whales will come to trade and more fees the platform will collect so the whole game is about attracting more losers possible to your platform.
3. HYPERLIQUID HAS THE BEST MODEL FOR ACQUIRING RETAIL
HIP-3 and now HIP-4 are build on one founding principle.
Permisionless deployment. I.E letting independent builders create markets.
Each builder can target a specific retail audience :
- sports fans
- regional communities
- crypto traders
- finance bros
etc.
That's a huge distribution advantage.
Whales move between market categories quickly as long as there is retail to trade against, but acquiring retail audience for a new market category is what takes time and work.
HIP-4 let independent deployers do that specialized work for their target segment while the platform collects the benefits.
That's why they won perps. That's how they will win Prediction Markets
Quant Chad retweeted
Skin-in-the-game is the ultimate moat, but a brutal mass-market social graph.
When we built ZEITFinance (prediction vaults where your token = your track record), we ran straight into human nature: people love illusion. Today’s social media works because it lets plebs pretend to be kings.
Quantifying risk only benefits the few who already win.
Directionally 100% with Se Yong, but for a risk-based social graph to scale, we have to design incentives that make the losing 99% want to play too
Quant Chad retweeted
Most crypto points programs are just subsidized Wash Trading
that's what you incentivize when you only reward volume.
Polyguana is smarter than that
Of the 10,000 points they distributed today :
> 80% went to deposit rewards.
> 20% went to volume rewards.
They're rewarding capital commitment over volume farming.
That means two things
1) Farming is completely free, you don't need spend on trading fees to aquire $POLY points. Just deposit and earn yield.
2) There is little incentive for users to fake volume, all activity on the platform is genuine users.
If you already trade on prediction markets just bridge your funds there and start earning at 0 cost ⬇️
polyguana.net/i/WZXNESPQ
PolyPoints Distribution #1 is out 🦎
10,000 PolyPoints sent, covering activity since launch:
-- 20% (2,000) to trading, by dollar volume
-- 80% (8,000) to Earn deposits, by dollar value held per hour
Get yours now: polyguana.net/points
Quant Chad retweeted
You asked: is my money safe on Polyguana?
Fair question. So we made a video 🐢
-- Deposits only ever pay back to the account that made them
-- The vault code can't be upgraded
-- Withdrawals can't be paused
-- Your trading wallet comes from Privy (owned by Stripe). We never see your private key
-- The source is verified on the explorer. Give it to your own AI and ask what could go wrong
Nothing in crypto is risk-free, but we did our best.
polyguana.net/points/guide
Quant Chad retweeted
Looks like Polymarket investors got SCAMMED
> In August they bought $1B at $21B valuation
> Now they can't sell even $5k at $11B valuation
that's a solid -50% in 48 days
and even at that price there are NO buyers.
A2DAO, a crypto OTC platform recently listed a sale for Polymarket equity at $11.65B valuation ($112 per share)
For the 2 days that the campaign was online only $5k worth were bought out of the $2M proposed for sale.
They sale was supposed to last for 20 days but they just removed it from the platform entirely.
Ironic.
VCs thought they were going to IPO and dump on the public, yet they are the ones that got dumped on
Quant Chad retweeted
PolyPoints Distribution #1 is out 🦎
10,000 PolyPoints sent, covering activity since launch:
-- 20% (2,000) to trading, by dollar volume
-- 80% (8,000) to Earn deposits, by dollar value held per hour
Get yours now: polyguana.net/points
Quant Chad retweeted
NO, Polymarket is not losing 45% of it's value.
This whole narrative is fake
Yes the Ownit sale flopped but it doesn't mean Polymarket is worth <$11B
You need to understand how Ownit works to get the difference
1. OwnIt isn't a stock exchange.
It's the successor to A2DAO, a crypto investment syndicate offering access to private equity and pre-IPO deals.
And here's how it works:
- Investors deposit USDC into a funding pool.
- Their allocation is recorded in OwnIt's portfolio
- Intermediaries handle the underlying equity through SPVs.
- When shares are eventually sold, proceeds are distributed back to investors' wallets, minus fees.
So no only are you relying on an intermediary (the SPV) but you don't even get tokenized shares of that SPV.
All you get is a line in the Ownit database saying that they owe money when (if) they sell at a profit
You can't even trade your share since you don't get anything in your wallet
2. The share sold are worth LESS than VC equity.
VCs receive preferred shares with liquidation preferences, governance rights and other protections.
OwnIt's investors receive indirect exposure with no rights, additional fees and restricted liquidity.
So realistically Ownit will never be able to sell at the same price as VCs
on top of that there are extra fees :
- 2% flat fee
- +10% fee on profit above $10k
- +10% fee on potential TGE ($POLY)
BOTTOM LINE:
There is a reason no one was buying this trash even at $11B, and it's mostly not because of Polymarket.
The discount is interesting.
But these are two very different investments.
Looks like Polymarket investors got SCAMMED
> In August they bought $1B at $21B valuation
> Now they can't sell even $5k at $11B valuation
that's a solid -50% in 48 days
and even at that price there are NO buyers.
A2DAO, a crypto OTC platform recently listed a sale for Polymarket equity at $11.65B valuation ($112 per share)
For the 2 days that the campaign was online only $5k worth were bought out of the $2M proposed for sale.
They sale was supposed to last for 20 days but they just removed it from the platform entirely.
Ironic.
VCs thought they were going to IPO and dump on the public, yet they are the ones that got dumped on
Quant Chad retweeted
Richard Heart was arrested in Turkey after meeting with
@gainzy222
A bisexual crypto streamer based in Tel Aviv.
RIP
Quant Chad retweeted
This doesn't mean much.
You have to account for the fact that the underlying structure is a gray-area, quasi-legal SPV. It likely only grants exposure to lower-tier shares rather than the preferred equity with juicy liquidation preferences that VCs usually get, and the market is pricing that in.
Nevertheless, as I've shown in previous posts, Polymarket's volume is inflated, at least across perps and international markets. The market knows. The market reacts.
Looks like Polymarket investors got SCAMMED
> In August they bought $1B at $21B valuation
> Now they can't sell even $5k at $11B valuation
that's a solid -50% in 48 days
and even at that price there are NO buyers.
A2DAO, a crypto OTC platform recently listed a sale for Polymarket equity at $11.65B valuation ($112 per share)
For the 2 days that the campaign was online only $5k worth were bought out of the $2M proposed for sale.
They sale was supposed to last for 20 days but they just removed it from the platform entirely.
Ironic.
VCs thought they were going to IPO and dump on the public, yet they are the ones that got dumped on
Quant Chad retweeted
2 days later
Polymarket at $11B has only pulled in $5k OTC
even random Chinese company raised $28k
does nobody want this gem at 50% discount the last VC round?? 😭😭
Quant Chad retweeted
This trader made $173,412 in 1 second betting that a car would fly.
did the Telsa Roadster REALLY fly ?
Not really. It jumped. but what matter is the rules.
1. What the rules actually required
The car must "performs a maneuver, under its own power, that makes the entire vehicle, including all four wheels, completely airborne"
This was written to describe flying but it also applies to any >1s jump
The rules explicitly made it clear :
"A powered jump qualifies even if onboard propulsion does not continuously support the vehicle while airborne."
Meaning Tesla didn't need to demonstrate:
- Sustained flight
- Hovering
- Continuous propulsion while airborne
Just ONE powered jump lasting 1 second.
This is why that guy was able to accumulate $190K of YES at 10c
He read the rules
Quant Chad retweeted
Polymarket US is slashing trading rebates for makers and takers
@Autonomous_Chad, a quant at ZEIT Finance who crunches numbers in prediction markets, went through the new tiers in Polymarket US's CFTC filing.
The numbers are brutal.
All makers used to get the same rebate coefficient of -0.0125, whatever their size.
Now it depends on monthly maker volume:
- Under $10M: 0
- $10M-$50M: -0.0035
- $50M-$200M: -0.0070
- $200M+: -0.0104
So under $10M a month, no rebate at all. Even whales above $200M get 16.8% less than before.
Takers arguably fare worse. From October 19:
- $250K-$1M: 3% back, was 10%
- $1M-$10M: 5%, was 25%
- $10M-$25M: 10%, was 50%
One detail in the filing is wild: volume from other prediction markets will count toward higher rebate tiers.
Chad's read: Polymarket is cutting subsidies to small retail market makers and leaning on institutional-scale ones that operate across several venues.
It keeps moving closer to Kalshi in both price and fee structure.
Chad doubts US and International orderbooks will ever merge as liquidity plans diverge.
Quant Chad retweeted
Happy to report that my @ZEITFinance vault was able to profit from the untimely departure of this fine young lady from her job 👇
