BBC Diplomatic Correspondent. Previously in Washington, Middle East and Balkans. Now a lot of Ukraine.
London
Joined January 2010
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How to gauge the seriousness of the latest rupture between Trump and Zelensky
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckre…
Striking conclusion: “There is…no basis to assess that Russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast in any short period of time…or even to forecast that Russian forces will ever be able to complete their seizure of this region by force.”
The four seasons of Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi appear to have achieved significant success
SPECIAL REPORT: Ukrainian forces have defeated the 2026 Russian campaign to seize Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces intended to conduct a deep encirclement of the entire Fortress Belt from the Lyman direction in the north and the Dobropillya direction in the southwest, linking up near Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast. This wide encirclement would have largely completed the seizure of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive known as Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction has completely disrupted this Russian plan by inflicting an operational defeat on the northern Russian pincer. This Ukrainian success will force the Russian military to reconstitute and likely fundamentally rethink its approach to accomplish its goals in this area.
There is therefore no basis to assess that Russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast in any short period of time, as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to claim, or even to forecast that Russian forces will ever be able to complete their seizure of this region by force.
With attacks on Kyiv getting worse, some people aren’t waiting for winter| BBC News youtu.be/0yZexfJp9_k?is=JjjR… via @YouTube
Today’s fudge on the future of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem avoids deepening the crisis in UK-Israel relations for now. But it’s hard to see a future Israeli government reversing course. Reducing the international presence in E Jerusalem is a long term strategic goal
Travelling by rail in Ukraine is increasingly hazardous as Russia steps up its attacks bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr4g…
Paul Adams retweeted
Impressive work from @oko_gora_tg with maps of reported Ukrainian 🇺🇦 drones and missiles activities in Russia 🇷🇺 during September
Ukraine continued to launch thousands of drones (15 428 were downed based on Russian MOD claim...), with part of them against heavily defended and high value target, such as refineries.
There is a race between Russian air-defense adaptation and Ukrainian drones and missiles program. There are many targets Ukraine can destroy, which have a very high value. Vladimir Putin said it himself, Ukrainian strikes against refineries cost Russia 1% of GDP this year...
Russia Is Planning Its Most Powerful Blow Yet to Try to Freeze Ukraine nytimes.com/2026/10/02/world…
Passengers at Kyiv’s main railway station constantly having to evacuate and re-enter as air alerts are declared and lifted. More disruption caused by Russia’s round-the-clock attacks on the capital
Ukraine's PM says Russia has mounted its first mass combined missile & drone energy grid attack of the season. Everyone expects a repeat of previous winters. Kyiv was filled with acrid smoke early this morning.
At least two more major attacks in Kyiv today (National Academy of Sciences and medical centre) and around 10 hours under air raid alert. Emergency services working flat out. It’s relentless
And let’s not forget that barely a day goes by when one or more civilians are killed in the capital. And plenty injured. Kyiv is increasingly deadly
This month is set to become the worst month for Kyiv 🇺🇦 since 2022, with more than 155 strikes already recorded
▫️January 2026 - 109 strikes
▫️February 2026 - 51 strikes
▫️March 2026 - 21 strikes
▫️April 2026 - 32 strikes
▫️May 2026 - 90 strikes
▫️June 2026 - 83 strikes
▫️July 2026 - 111 strikes
▫️August 2026 - 113 strikes
▫️September 2026 - 155 strikes
Strikes include Kyiv city and oblast. Total = ~665
There have been fewer missile strikes than in August and July, which can be explained by the fact low-cost Geran-4/5 and Banderol can reach the city. Russia is probably stockpiling missiles for winter strikes.
Recent targets in Kyiv :
▫️Warehouses
▫️Data centers
▫️Airports
▫️Gas stations/train stations
▫️Military/civilian industry
Paul Adams retweeted
This month is set to become the worst month for Kyiv 🇺🇦 since 2022, with more than 155 strikes already recorded
▫️January 2026 - 109 strikes
▫️February 2026 - 51 strikes
▫️March 2026 - 21 strikes
▫️April 2026 - 32 strikes
▫️May 2026 - 90 strikes
▫️June 2026 - 83 strikes
▫️July 2026 - 111 strikes
▫️August 2026 - 113 strikes
▫️September 2026 - 155 strikes
Strikes include Kyiv city and oblast. Total = ~665
There have been fewer missile strikes than in August and July, which can be explained by the fact low-cost Geran-4/5 and Banderol can reach the city. Russia is probably stockpiling missiles for winter strikes.
Recent targets in Kyiv :
▫️Warehouses
▫️Data centers
▫️Airports
▫️Gas stations/train stations
▫️Military/civilian industry
Absolutely huge explosion in Kyiv just now, and subsequent most distant blasts. Lots of chatter about a long night of ballistic threats. Dangers constant these days. At times, Kyiv feels like a front line city. People say it's more dangerous than Kharkiv at the moment.
Paul Adams retweeted
RFE/RL takes apart a Russian Geran-4 drone to uncover what makes the jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) faster, harder to intercept, and capable of operating deep inside Ukraine -- from its turbojet engine and advanced camera to foreign-made communications and navigation components. @cxemu @radiosvoboda
Kyiv’s new normal. The impact of round the clock alerts and drone attacks on Ukraine’s capital
texty.org.ua/articles/118344…
Paul Adams retweeted
Ukraine's middle strike campaign has faded from the headlines since the days of the "logistics lockdown," but this domain remains key for the front line. Despite Russian countermeasures, Ukraine's best drone units are keeping the pressure on.
My story:
kyivindependent.com/inside-t…
