Cade Massey (@bcmassey) | teapawt

Tweets
All Posts
Sort by
Most recent Popular
Tweets & Replies
Reposts
Media
Search

Cade Massey retweeted

Wharton Moneyball

@WMoneyballNov 4

BYU at #9 is a real head scratcher. Here's our best fit of the committee, at 65% "Most deserving" / 35% "Best". Not perfect, but very highly correlated with the committee. BYU is not close to the field. There are a bunch of teams jumbled together and the Cougars ain't one of them.

Image from Wharton Moneyball (@WMoneyball)

20

51

23,039

Some people model elections. Others...

Wharton Moneyball

@WMoneyballNov 3

New idea. Fun, yeah? And helpful? Very curious how the committee sorts it. HT @PDawg206 @ESPN_BillC @bcfremeau @CFB_Data @laurenpoe @ralphDrussoATH

Image from Wharton Moneyball (@WMoneyball)

3

10

1,522

Have never seen a video of UChicago legend Hillie Einhorn. Thank you, @DavidEpstein. And terrific little want-have observation. davidepstein.substack.com/p/…

7

879

@bcmasseyOct 20

This is great, Lauren. The ratings are strongly correlated when looking at all of FBS, but weaker (of course) for samples selected on one dimension. Lot of spread at the top! Early yet, but lining up for some interesting committee choices.

Lauren Poe@laurenpoeOct 20

Replying to @bcmassey @ESPN_BillC @bcfremeau @statsowar @SethWalder @PDawg206

FPI = "Best", SOR = "Most Deserving"...BYU, UK, UCLA have a better resume than FPI. Penn State is better than resume suggests.

Image from Lauren Poe (@laurenpoe)

2

538

@bcmasseyOct 20

Hey, Bill C, Brian, Parker where are your Best-vs.-Most-Deserving charts? Seth, Lauren, shouldn't ESPN FPI have one? Nice work by Andrew here. @ESPN_BillC @bcfremeau @statsowar @SethWalder @laurenpoe @PDawg206

Andrew Percival@PDawg206Oct 20

Replying to @PDawg206

Best vs Deserving BYU shaping up to be our philosophical demo this year, as the metrics like but don't love them. Oregon the extreme outlier on quality vs rank. (Av Poll = average of the AP & Coach's polls)

Image from Andrew Percival (@PDawg206)

2

5

823

@bcmasseyOct 20

My own effort: bcademassey.shinyapps.io/the…

Image from Cade Massey (@bcmassey)

2

203

Cade Massey retweeted

Wharton Moneyball

@WMoneyballOct 12

"Wins Above Bubble" is a useful new tool in the CFB playoff discussions. Look at how it sorts the current top 11 "most deserving", who are a mishmash of 0- and 1-loss teams with very different conference affiliations: Tier 1: UGA, obviously Tier 2: Undefeated UCLA, Indiana and ND + 1-loss UK and BAMA. Tier 3: Undefeated BYU, Tech, and Miami (!) + 1-loss MissSt and TEX. HT @ralphDrussoATH @PDawg206 @CFBNumbers

Image from Wharton Moneyball (@WMoneyball)

6

46

6,766

Cool, interesting, hopeful work from @Todd_Rogers_ and colleagues.

Image from Cade Massey (@bcmassey)

1

6

550

nytimes.com/2026/10/03/opini…

Image from Cade Massey (@bcmassey)

3

240

Cade Massey retweeted

@emollickSep 24

Replying to @danielrock

Closing out a trilogy is always the hardest

1

7

1,352

Happy first full day of college football, for those who observe! A quick final pre-season forecast. HT @PDawg206

Image from Cade Massey (@bcmassey)

2

4

2,111

This is why ND-Miami seems like the don't-over-think-it title game pick. Good teams with much easier paths to the playoffs.

1

2

393

That's from an @Unabated sim btw.

1

275

@bcmasseyMay 11

Thanks, Colby. Nice job distilling.

@colby__donovanMay 9

This podcast with @bcmassey (hosted by @jeffma & @RufusPeabody) is a masterclass for those interested in the NFL draft and human judgement. - Base Rates vs. Judgement: "Every one of these prescriptions—trade back, pick high-value positions, go with the big board consensus—it’s basically: don't exercise expert judgment about player evaluation. It’s like, 'Defer expertise in the interest of more picks.' It’s hard to do because it flies in the face of guys who spent their lives getting better at evaluating individuals. Each one of those prescriptions says, 'Don't bet on individuals. Just play the base rates.'" - Base Rates vs. Judgement: "If you look at every two-for-one trade you could have made to come down out of a position in the first round... between 60% and 70% of the time, you are more likely to do better on that stat if you take two lower picks instead of one. You can overcome a 60% base rate if you are 65% diagnostic that a player is better, but you have to have a track record that justifies that kind of confidence." - The Rarity of Skill: "There are individuals who actually can pick stocks better than the market. It’s just that they’re very rare. General managers who are very sure of themselves think they can discriminate like that. But the question is: what’s the track record? Are you keeping score?" - AI vs. Analytics: "AI has better branding than analytics and data science used to, and it’s got a better user interface for the world. People are listening to models more because they're in the guise of 'AI' instead of a geeky guy with a spreadsheet." open.spotify.com/episode/3cu…

A Chat with the OG Cade Massey | Sponsored by Novig

Bet The Process · Episode

open.spotify.com

4

2,291

@bcmasseyApr 29

Thanks, guys. Always good fun.

@RufusPeabodyApr 29

If you're one of the 7, we've got a good one for you this week. Fresh off a trip to Pittsburgh, NFL Draft analytics OG @bcmassey joins to discuss whether scouts matter, can anyone provide alpha differing from consensus, positional value, & more. open.spotify.com/episode/3cu…

A Chat with the OG Cade Massey | Sponsored by Novig

A Chat with the OG Cade Massey | Sponsored by Novig

Bet The Process · Episode

open.spotify.com

6

1,672

Thanks, Benjamin. It's extraordinary. The work these guys are doing is so impactful.

Benjamin Robinson@benj_robinsonApr 5

Always enjoyed listening to these guys on @WMoneyball. A shame! nytimes.com/2026/04/03/clima… cc @bcmassey

Forest Service Will Close Research Stations That Study Wildfire Risk (Gift Article)

Scientists say their work on fires and climate change could be lost as the agency moves its headquarters to Utah from Washington and shuts 57 research stations.

3

2,489

@bcmasseyMar 28

Parker's viz game is something to behold. And, wow, ACC.

@statsowarMar 28

2026 Projected Depth by conference according to SP+

Image from parker fleming (@statsowar)

1

2,263

Cade Massey retweeted

How I Write Clips

@PerellClipsMar 6

Ezra Klein: "Having AI summarize a book or paper for me is a disaster. It has no idea what I really wanted to know and wouldn't have made the connections I would've made. I'm interested in the thing I will see that other people wouldn't have seen, and I think AI typically sees what everybody else would see. I'm not saying that AI can't be useful, but I'm pretty against shortcuts. And obviously, you have to limit the amount of work you're doing. You can't read literally everything. But in some ways, I think it's more dangerous to think you've read something that you haven't than to not read it at all. I think the time you spend with things is pretty important." @ezraklein

@paulnovosadMar 6

From Ezra Klein, more true than ever. You would not believe how many shortcuts everyone else is taking. In many areas, you can get way ahead of everyone just by doing the work. More true than ever now, when more people are shirking and AI lets you do 10x if you try. 1/

Image from Paul Novosad (@paulnovosad)

99

4,662

2,056,298

@bcmasseyJan 26

More like this please. Maybe someone start a "Trust the Variance" story-a-day site? A week? A month?

Michael Lopez@StatsbyLopezJan 25

“Trust the variance” Nice to see @JezData highlighted in this Max Greyserman article

Image from Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez)

Image from Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez)

6

1,510

Cade Massey retweeted

@CassSunsteinJan 19

Terrific from @tylercowen: "If by any chance you are wondering how to make yourself smarter, learn how to appreciate almost everybody, and keep on cultivating that skill."

18

1,580

101,703