@BallotBoxScot

Scottish elections and polling data. Not using Twitter anymore. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Donate; https://xitter.cf/t.co/8y6in4knNb

 Scotland
ballotbox.scot
Joined January 2018
  • Tweets12.3K
  • Following22
  • Followers29.2K
3.5KMedia
For pinning purposes: Elon Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspit. I'm not staying on here, and neither should you be. You can find me elsewhere.
Image with the words "Goodbye, Twitter." under the Ballot Box Scotland logo. Alongside this is text reading: "After 7 years, Ballot Box Scotland will no longer be posting on Twitter (or "X", as it was rebranded.) I regret that it has come to this, but this platform is not only no longer fun to use, but an actively dangerous hotbed of conspiracies and hatred. I want no party in that. This is by no means the end of Ballot Box Scotland as a project. This website will continue as normal, and all the content previously posted on Twitter will instead be available on Bluesky." It includes links to my Bluesky: bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot As well as to the website: ballotbox.scot

ALT Image with the words "Goodbye, Twitter." under the Ballot Box Scotland logo. Alongside this is text reading: "After 7 years, Ballot Box Scotland will no longer be posting on Twitter (or "X", as it was rebranded.) I regret that it has come to this, but this platform is not only no longer fun to use, but an actively dangerous hotbed of conspiracies and hatred. I want no party in that. This is by no means the end of Ballot Box Scotland as a project. This website will continue as normal, and all the content previously posted on Twitter will instead be available on Bluesky." It includes links to my Bluesky: bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot As well as to the website: ballotbox.scot

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Elon Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspit. I'm not staying on there, and neither should you be. ballotbox.scot/goodbye-twitt…

Goodbye, Twitter: Your owner is truly vile

Elon Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspit. I’m not staying on there, and neither should you be.

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Image of the Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask "Dawn of the Final Day: 24 Hours Remain" screen

ALT Image of the Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask "Dawn of the Final Day: 24 Hours Remain" screen

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Poll Analysis: Survation 7th - 13th of January 2025 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 57 Labour ~ 25 Conservative ~ 14 Reform UK ~ 12 Lib Dem ~ 11 Green ~ 10 Independence: Not included or not yet published? ballotbox.scot/survation-jan…

Poll Analysis: Survation 7th – 13th of January 2025

Another dire poll for Labour suggests Anas Sarwar will struggle to make it into Bute House, whilst Reform continue to surge, and a rebuke to the idea of Alba suddenly gaining.

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Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 7 - 13 Jan (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov): List: SNP ~ 31% (+4) Lab ~ 21% (-4) Con ~ 14% (-1) RUK ~ 13% (+2) LD ~ 10% (nc) Grn ~ 9% (nc) Alba ~ 2% (-1) Const: SNP ~ 35% (+4) Lab ~ 22% (-5) Con ~ 14% (nc) RUK ~ 13% (+3) LD ~ 8% (-1) Grn ~ 6% (nc)
Ballot Box Scotland@BallotBoxScot14 Jan 2025
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 7 - 13 Jan (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov): SNP ~ 33% (+2) Lab ~ 24% (-4) RUK ~ 15% (+2) Con ~ 14% (-1) LD ~ 9% (+3) Grn ~ 4% (-1)
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Projecting Survation 7 - 13 Jan into seats (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov / vs 2021): SNP ~ 57 (+19 / -7) Lab ~ 25 (-11 / +3) Con ~ 14 (-7 / -17) Reform UK ~ 12 (-2 / +12) Lib Dem ~ 11 (+1 / +7) Green ~ 10 (nc / +2) (Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
Map of projected seats. SNP win 56 constituencies, Conservatives 6, Labour 5, Greens 1, Lib Dems 5. Regional list seats are 1 SNP, 8 Conservative, 20 Labour, 9 Green, 6 Lib Dem, 12 Reform UK. SNP lead in every region. Gallagher Index is 10.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

ALT Map of projected seats. SNP win 56 constituencies, Conservatives 6, Labour 5, Greens 1, Lib Dems 5. Regional list seats are 1 SNP, 8 Conservative, 20 Labour, 9 Green, 6 Lib Dem, 12 Reform UK. SNP lead in every region. Gallagher Index is 10.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. SNP are second in 17 constituencies, Conservatives in 15, Labour in 39, Lib Dems in 2. Closest runner up for last list seat per region is SNP in South, Labour in Central and Lothian, Conservative in Highlands and ISlands and North East, Reforum UK in West, Glasgow and Mid and Fife. In percentage terms margins of victory are 14 constituencies below 5, 24 between 5 and 10, 26 between 10 and 20, 9 above 20.

ALT Map of projected runners up and margins. SNP are second in 17 constituencies, Conservatives in 15, Labour in 39, Lib Dems in 2. Closest runner up for last list seat per region is SNP in South, Labour in Central and Lothian, Conservative in Highlands and ISlands and North East, Reforum UK in West, Glasgow and Mid and Fife. In percentage terms margins of victory are 14 constituencies below 5, 24 between 5 and 10, 26 between 10 and 20, 9 above 20.

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Note: Slight error on the previous poll figures in the chart/first tweet: should be Greens -1, Lib Dems +1
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This is a joint-worst seat projection (from polls BBS has in my tracker) for the Conservatives this term; equalled four times thus far, two of which were post-GE and one was just before it.
Ballot Box Scotland@BallotBoxScot15 Jan 2025
Replying to @BallotBoxScot
Projecting Survation 7 - 13 Jan into seats (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov / vs 2021): SNP ~ 57 (+19 / -7) Lab ~ 25 (-11 / +3) Con ~ 14 (-7 / -17) Reform UK ~ 12 (-2 / +12) Lib Dem ~ 11 (+1 / +7) Green ~ 10 (nc / +2) (Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
Map of projected seats. SNP win 56 constituencies, Conservatives 6, Labour 5, Greens 1, Lib Dems 5. Regional list seats are 1 SNP, 8 Conservative, 20 Labour, 9 Green, 6 Lib Dem, 12 Reform UK. SNP lead in every region. Gallagher Index is 10.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

ALT Map of projected seats. SNP win 56 constituencies, Conservatives 6, Labour 5, Greens 1, Lib Dems 5. Regional list seats are 1 SNP, 8 Conservative, 20 Labour, 9 Green, 6 Lib Dem, 12 Reform UK. SNP lead in every region. Gallagher Index is 10.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. SNP are second in 17 constituencies, Conservatives in 15, Labour in 39, Lib Dems in 2. Closest runner up for last list seat per region is SNP in South, Labour in Central and Lothian, Conservative in Highlands and ISlands and North East, Reforum UK in West, Glasgow and Mid and Fife. In percentage terms margins of victory are 14 constituencies below 5, 24 between 5 and 10, 26 between 10 and 20, 9 above 20.

ALT Map of projected runners up and margins. SNP are second in 17 constituencies, Conservatives in 15, Labour in 39, Lib Dems in 2. Closest runner up for last list seat per region is SNP in South, Labour in Central and Lothian, Conservative in Highlands and ISlands and North East, Reforum UK in West, Glasgow and Mid and Fife. In percentage terms margins of victory are 14 constituencies below 5, 24 between 5 and 10, 26 between 10 and 20, 9 above 20.

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Leaving this website shortly so let me be absolutely clear: nobody has to like the Greens and you're free to criticise them, but this "deviant" patter? You're just a foul bigot making life harder for the LGBTI+ community. My community. Nothing but contempt for these scumbags.
Look Aboot Ye@ThereWasACoo15 Jan 2025
Replying to @BallotBoxScot
So happy to see the Greens getting reemed. If you vote Green you're a deviant.
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This is patter that has been enabled and even excused by some members of our parliament, even as other members *are caught on BBC camera being abused by bigots in the street with this exact wording*. Wise up, the lot of ye's.
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By-Election Preview: Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar (East Dunbartonshire) 13th of February 2025 Last Councillor to MP by-election, Lib Dems starting a quite distant third, but that hasn't stopped them pulling off big wins before. Call: Lean LD. ballotbox.scot/preview-kent/

By-Election Preview: Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar (East Dunbartonshire) 13th of February...

The last of our Councillor to MP by-elections, the Lib Dems are starting a quite distant third, but that hasn’t stopped them pulling off big wins before.

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New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 7 - 13 Jan (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov): SNP ~ 33% (+2) Lab ~ 24% (-4) RUK ~ 15% (+2) Con ~ 14% (-1) LD ~ 9% (+3) Grn ~ 4% (-1)
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Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar has a relatively busy ballot: we've got the Holyrood 5, we've got Reform UK, we've got Alba, and we've got 2022's Freedom Alliance candidate this time standing for another microparty, Sovereignty.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Lib Dem Marthos Christoforou, Alba Eamonn Gallagher, Conservative Sabit Kaur Gill, Reform UK Bruce Hampton, Labour Aidan Marshall, SNP Serina Marshall, Sovereignty Alan McManus, Green Elizabeth Rowan Vacating is Lib Dem, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 4.2%. Prediction is Lean Lib Dem.

ALT Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Lib Dem Marthos Christoforou, Alba Eamonn Gallagher, Conservative Sabit Kaur Gill, Reform UK Bruce Hampton, Labour Aidan Marshall, SNP Serina Marshall, Sovereignty Alan McManus, Green Elizabeth Rowan Vacating is Lib Dem, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 4.2%. Prediction is Lean Lib Dem.

Ballot Box Scotland@BallotBoxScot12 Jan 2025
East Dunbartonshire's Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar by-election due on the 13th of February. Labour beat SNP by 4.2% running 2022 as a single seat vote. Only a minority of the ward is in the vacating Lib Dem's Westminster seat (oddly!), but they'll probably blitz it.
Chart of First Preferences in 2022 election. In percentage terms, SNP 38.9, Labour 29.2, Lib Dem 18.7, Conservative 12.0, Freedom Alliance 1.3

ALT Chart of First Preferences in 2022 election. In percentage terms, SNP 38.9, Labour 29.2, Lib Dem 18.7, Conservative 12.0, Freedom Alliance 1.3

Chart of 2022 transfers, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 47.1, SNP 42.8, Didn't Transfer 10.1

ALT Chart of 2022 transfers, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 47.1, SNP 42.8, Didn't Transfer 10.1

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By-Election Preview: Bannockburn (Stirling) 23rd of January 2025 The sad passing of a Labour stalwart with 44 years experience leaves them at risk of being left with a credibility-stretching 4 (of 23) councillor administration. Call: Labour-SNP Tossup. ballotbox.scot/preview-banno…

By-Election Preview: Bannockburn (Stirling) 23rd of January 2025

The sad passing of a Labour stalwart with 44 years experience leaves Labour at risk of being left with a credibility-stretching 4 (of 23) councillor administration.

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Kilmarnock North by-election due on the 20th of February. SNP beat Labour *after transfers* here by 10% in 2022, thus they'd need a swing of 5% to take it. They haven't been getting that recently; Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse was 3.7%. As such... Lean SNP? A rarity right now!
Chart of First Preferences in 2022 election. In percentage terms, SNP 47.6, Labour 27.9, Conservative 13.8, Independent 8.1, Alba 2.6

ALT Chart of First Preferences in 2022 election. In percentage terms, SNP 47.6, Labour 27.9, Conservative 13.8, Independent 8.1, Alba 2.6

Chart of 2022 transfers, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, SNP 50.7, Labour 40.8, Didn't Transfer 8.4

ALT Chart of 2022 transfers, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, SNP 50.7, Labour 40.8, Didn't Transfer 8.4

Map of Kilmarnock North ward with polling districts coloured by 2022 lead party. SNP led in every district, covering the Knockinlaw and Onthank areas.

ALT Map of Kilmarnock North ward with polling districts coloured by 2022 lead party. SNP led in every district, covering the Knockinlaw and Onthank areas.

Ballot Box Scotland@BallotBoxScot25 Nov 2024
Unfortunately we're due a return to Kilmarnock early next year, as Labour Councillor (and local group leader) for Kilmarnock North Maureen McKay sadly passed away last week: newsroom.east-ayrshire.gov.u…

Councillor Maureen McKay | East Ayrshire Council News

It is with deep regret that East Ayrshire Council announces the death of Councillor Maureen McKay, Leader of the Labour Opposition Group, who passed away peacefully on Thursday 21 November after a...

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Just a fun little note: BBS income for the year has tipped over the point at which the majority (75% post-taxes etc, which amounts to 52.5% overall) goes directly into the pot for commissioning a poll. Donations always gratefully received! en.liberapay.com/BallotBoxSc…
Screenshot of the poll fundraising tracker on the BBS website, showing it is £2,434.05 (60.9%) of the way towards the £4,000 goal.

ALT Screenshot of the poll fundraising tracker on the BBS website, showing it is £2,434.05 (60.9%) of the way towards the £4,000 goal.

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East Dunbartonshire's Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar by-election due on the 13th of February. Labour beat SNP by 4.2% running 2022 as a single seat vote. Only a minority of the ward is in the vacating Lib Dem's Westminster seat (oddly!), but they'll probably blitz it.
Chart of First Preferences in 2022 election. In percentage terms, SNP 38.9, Labour 29.2, Lib Dem 18.7, Conservative 12.0, Freedom Alliance 1.3

ALT Chart of First Preferences in 2022 election. In percentage terms, SNP 38.9, Labour 29.2, Lib Dem 18.7, Conservative 12.0, Freedom Alliance 1.3

Chart of 2022 transfers, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 47.1, SNP 42.8, Didn't Transfer 10.1

ALT Chart of 2022 transfers, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 47.1, SNP 42.8, Didn't Transfer 10.1

Ballot Box Scotland@BallotBoxScot4 Dec 2024
The last of Scotland's Councillor-MPs has vacated her council seat. Lib Dem MP for Mid Dunbartonshire Susan Murray is no longer a councillor for East Dunbartonshire's Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar. Could be an odd contest, possibly even a 3-way tossup between Lab-LD-SNP?
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In 2022 terms, the SNP win a theoretical faceoff against the Lib Dems by 8.6% (47.3% to 38.7%, rest not transferring). That's the kind of swing the Lib Dems can easily find in an area they work hard. Still, fact most of the ward isn't Mid Dunbartonshire? I'll say Lean Lib Dem.
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For Tayside, New Municipalism imagines a region of 11 municipalities. Dundee is the clear centre here, but in 2012 we gave Perth "city" status, rather a lot of fanfare for a settlement unjustifiably without its own council. newmunicipalism.ballotbox.sc…
A map of the proposed Tayside Region, which would contain 11 municipalities, with a population of 413555. The largest settlement would be Dundee, there would be a total of 187 Municipal Councillors and 600 Regional Commissioners, and the SNP would have led at regional level in 2022. The 11 municipalities would be: Arbroath; Blairgowrie and Strathtay; Brechin and the Angus Glens; Carnoustie and Monifeth; Dundee; Forfar; Kinross-shire and Bridge of Earn; Montrose; Perth; Sidlaw and Carse of Gowrie; Straths of Allan and Earn.

ALT A map of the proposed Tayside Region, which would contain 11 municipalities, with a population of 413555. The largest settlement would be Dundee, there would be a total of 187 Municipal Councillors and 600 Regional Commissioners, and the SNP would have led at regional level in 2022. The 11 municipalities would be: Arbroath; Blairgowrie and Strathtay; Brechin and the Angus Glens; Carnoustie and Monifeth; Dundee; Forfar; Kinross-shire and Bridge of Earn; Montrose; Perth; Sidlaw and Carse of Gowrie; Straths of Allan and Earn.

Charts showing the projected overall election results in the Tayside region based on 2022 results. In percentage terms, total votes at municipal level would be SNP 38.1, Conservative 24.2, Labour 11.6, Lib Dem 11.6, Independent 7.7, Green 5.2, Alba 1.2, Others 0.4. The SNP would have 74 councillors, Conservatives 50, Labour 21, Lib Dems 19, Independents 14, Greens 9. In percentage terms, total votes at regional level would be SNP 39.7, Conservative 26.6, Labour 13.0, Lib Dem 13.0, Green 5.9, Alba 1.9. The SNP would have 24 commissioners, Conservatives 16, Labour 8, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4.

ALT Charts showing the projected overall election results in the Tayside region based on 2022 results. In percentage terms, total votes at municipal level would be SNP 38.1, Conservative 24.2, Labour 11.6, Lib Dem 11.6, Independent 7.7, Green 5.2, Alba 1.2, Others 0.4. The SNP would have 74 councillors, Conservatives 50, Labour 21, Lib Dems 19, Independents 14, Greens 9. In percentage terms, total votes at regional level would be SNP 39.7, Conservative 26.6, Labour 13.0, Lib Dem 13.0, Green 5.9, Alba 1.9. The SNP would have 24 commissioners, Conservatives 16, Labour 8, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4.

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For Renfrewshire, New Municipalism imagines a region of 10 municipalities. The other side of a spicy split either side of the lower Clyde, why on earth doesn't Scotland's largest town, Paisley, currently have its own council? newmunicipalism.ballotbox.sc…
A map of the proposed Renfrewshire Region, which would contain 10 municipalities, with a population of 362942. The largest settlement would be Paisley, there would be a total of 176 Municipal Councillors and 50 Regional Commissioners, and the SNP would have led at regional level in 2022. The 10 municipalities would be: Barrhead and Neilston; Eastwood North and Eaglesham; Erskine and Renfrewshire North; Greenock and Port Glasgow; Gourock and Firth Coast; Johnstone and Renfrewshire South; Newton Mearns; Paisley; Renfrew; Strathgryffe

ALT A map of the proposed Renfrewshire Region, which would contain 10 municipalities, with a population of 362942. The largest settlement would be Paisley, there would be a total of 176 Municipal Councillors and 50 Regional Commissioners, and the SNP would have led at regional level in 2022. The 10 municipalities would be: Barrhead and Neilston; Eastwood North and Eaglesham; Erskine and Renfrewshire North; Greenock and Port Glasgow; Gourock and Firth Coast; Johnstone and Renfrewshire South; Newton Mearns; Paisley; Renfrew; Strathgryffe

Charts showing the projected overall election results in the Renfrewshire region based on 2022 results. In percentage terms, total votes at municipal level would be SNP 36.0, Labour 28.0, Conservative 19.9, Independent 8.4, Lib Dem 3.4, Green 2.7, Alba 1.0, Others 0.6. The SNP would have 68 councillors, Labour 51, Conservatives 36, Independents 9, Lib Dems 7, Greens 5. In percentage terms, total votes at regional level would be SNP 36.9, Labour 30.4, Conservative 21.6, Green 4.9, Lib Dem 4.5, Alba 1.7. The SNP would have 19 commissioners, Labour 15, Conservatives 11, Greens 3, Lib Dems 2.

ALT Charts showing the projected overall election results in the Renfrewshire region based on 2022 results. In percentage terms, total votes at municipal level would be SNP 36.0, Labour 28.0, Conservative 19.9, Independent 8.4, Lib Dem 3.4, Green 2.7, Alba 1.0, Others 0.6. The SNP would have 68 councillors, Labour 51, Conservatives 36, Independents 9, Lib Dems 7, Greens 5. In percentage terms, total votes at regional level would be SNP 36.9, Labour 30.4, Conservative 21.6, Green 4.9, Lib Dem 4.5, Alba 1.7. The SNP would have 19 commissioners, Labour 15, Conservatives 11, Greens 3, Lib Dems 2.

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