Agenda this week (1) the guaranteed stolen, rigged Brazil election (2) the guaranteed stolen, rigged Israel election 🥱 wb next week? (1) the guaranteed stolen, rigged US election Ah nice, the local variety.

My preference rn is to hedge with oil long vs. crypto (eth) short. The ambiguity whether crypto is in a htf bull or bear trend makes any hedges w/i sector (1) nervy (2) exposed to beta that can rip in your face. Easier to long oil and adjust if anything changes in ME..which will send all risk assets anyway.

(1) You dont get extra points for difficulty (2) Consensus is right 80% of the time (3) ZEC HYPE VVV

I've done a pretty bad job trading BTC around this chop. Mental energy better used to focus on the old faithful special situation alts: VVV, ZEC, HYPE. They look good.

Great conversation, and Ryan is definitely one of the best allocators in crypto. But his points on Zcash / privacy don't stand up to pressure testing. He's skeptical because: (1) Privacy has low uptake in other use cases e.g. DuckDuckGo is a tiny fraction of Google usage. Based on people's revealed preferences, he believes people will always favor convenience over privacy. R: That is true in categories when there is a more convenient, superior alternative (such as search engines). But in the case of non-sovereign SoV, is holding BTC more convenient than Zcash? Whether its in an ETF, on Coinbase exch, or in a cold wallet, holding BTC vs. Zcash is the same level of inconvenience. So there isn't a convenience tradeoff. There is also enough ambiguity which is technically superior SoV. Some favor decentralization, trusted setup, ossification of the protocol. Others favor adaptability, resilience and cryptographic superiority. I don't think this analogy is a reasonable bear case. (2) "Maybe this is only a problem for wealthy people." R: Wealthy people are basically the entirety of the world's SoV addressable market. Ryan is acknowledging its a problem for most of the market and mis-categorizing this as bearish. SoV isn't really a consideration at all for non-wealthy people. The historical cases where *everyone* across income levels cares about SoV are when the non-sovereign aspect is most important (e.g. rampant devaluation of local currency). In those instances of moving wealth outside local gov purview, privacy is arguably an important feature.

The first couple times price tests support, the support line weakens with each consecutive touch more likely to fall through. But when price has hit support 5+ times and bounced, it strengthens and gets reinforced with each time it holds. We've tested 81k about 10+ times in the last 2 weeks.

Under-discussed: $DIEM as a $1 of compute perpetual is a financial instrument that captures the appreciating value of what the $1 of compute can achieve

> guy who thinks that BTC holders are more akin to value investors. Limited overlap with those trying to outperform the market (risk-on): alt coin holders and AI equities investors

Flood def took note of Ken Griffin pushing the market in one direction to liquidate Leopold this summer. Now with ct hanging on his every market call, he will try to replicate this move by the end of ‘27. Be careful tailing him from here on out. I will not read his takes as an honest broker anymore but legendary run.

What’s even the point? Bidding BTC here. There is a rapidly deteriorating sovereign debt crisis and I’m not selling into USD garbage

not actively shorting, but placed some stink bids at 76k in case 10/10 ptsd makes people a little nervy after hours today

Jan puts on Delta to hedge the literal plague and a terrible wifi experience

The episode starts with calling the end of a civilization and ends with a market rip higher

looks awful

many bears...any bulls? the powers that be want the market to go up. they control the printer, the data, and need Number Go Up and desperately need to export USD to the rest of the world. you're fighting a lot of inertia with your bear case