Belgian football quantified. Forecasts, models, data experiments.
Belgium
Joined February 2022
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❌ Edward Still is out at RAAL after 7 points from 11 games. His record in the JPL (1.08 points per game) is 5th-worst of coaches with 90+ games this century.
Decent at Charleroi (1.43 PPG), his top-flight record at Eupen, Kortrijk, Anderlecht and RAAL is poor: 4 wins in 37.
Club Brugge v Anderlecht today #CLUAND
Anderlecht lead Belgium's two biggest rivalries, but Club are closing in: 76-71 after 207 meetings. Club won 8 of the last 10.
Union lead both Brussels derbies. Antwerp lead both of theirs.
Who dominates Belgium's 22 biggest rivalries 👇
🇧🇪 Belgium are 5.1 pts short of Portugal in the #UEFA coefficient race. 6th means an extra UCL spot in 28/29.
Even if Portugal repeat their worst recent season, Belgium need +7.2 more to tie: matching our 5-yr best, or winning all 18 league-phase games left.
Easy...
Nice chart. Looks familiar 😉
Ours from 27 Oct: Anderlecht 4,810, Brugge 4,665 all-time top-flight points. At the last-10-season pace, Brugge pass them in 2035/36.
Does Sunday speed that up? teapaw.org/DAZN_BENL/status/21186…
📈 | Club Brugge komt steeds dichter bij het puntenrecord van RSC Anderlecht. 🔵🆚🟣
Bekijk #StatsDontLie in de DAZN-app. 📊
The full list
1960s
RFC Liège 2–0 DOS Utrecht
DOS Utrecht 0–2 RFC Liège
Beerschot 1–2 DWS Amsterdam
DWS Amsterdam 1–1 Beerschot
1970s
Lierse 0–1 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 0–4 Lierse
Standard Liège 3–1 Feyenoord
Feyenoord 2–0 Standard Liège
Antwerp 0–1 Ajax
Ajax 1–2 Antwerp
RWDM 1–2 FC Twente
FC Twente 1–0 RWDM
Anderlecht 2–1 Roda JC
Roda JC 2–3 Anderlecht
RWDM 0–0 Feyenoord
Feyenoord 1–2 RWDM
Anderlecht 1–0 FC Twente
FC Twente 0–2 Anderlecht
1980s (9 matches)
Lokeren 0–2 AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 0–1 Lokeren
Gent 1–2 HFC Haarlem
HFC Haarlem 3–3 Gent
KV Mechelen 1–0 Ajax
KV Mechelen 3–0 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 1–0 KV Mechelen
Club Brugge 0–0 FC Twente
FC Twente 1–4 Club Brugge
1990s
Anderlecht 0–0 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 0–2 Anderlecht
Gent 0–0 Ajax
Ajax 3–0 Gent
KV Mechelen 0–1 Vitesse Arnhem
Vitesse Arnhem 1–0 KV Mechelen
2000s
Gent 0–6 Ajax
Ajax 3–0 Gent
Anderlecht 1–0 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 2–3 Anderlecht
Club Brugge 0–2 Ajax
Ajax 1–2 Club Brugge
Club Brugge 1–0 FC Utrecht
Heerenveen 1–0 Beveren
Zulte Waregem 0–3 Ajax
Standard Liège 1–1 AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Standard Liège
Anderlecht 1–1 Ajax
Ajax 1–3 Anderlecht
2010s
Gent 0–1 Feyenoord
Feyenoord 0–2 Gent
Anderlecht 0–3 Ajax
Ajax 2–0 Anderlecht
Anderlecht 0–1 AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Anderlecht
Zulte Waregem 0–2 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Zulte Waregem
Standard Liège 1–2 Feyenoord
Feyenoord 3–0 Standard Liège
Standard Liège 0–1 Ajax
Ajax 1–1 Standard Liège
Zulte Waregem 1–1 Vitesse Arnhem
Vitesse Arnhem 0–2 Zulte Waregem
Standard Liège 2–2 Ajax
Ajax 3–0 Standard Liège
Antwerp 1–1 AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Antwerp
2020s
Anderlecht 3–3 Vitesse Arnhem
Vitesse Arnhem 2–1 Anderlecht
Anderlecht 2–0 AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Anderlecht (AZ won on penalties)
FC Twente 0–1 Union Saint-Gilloise
Union Saint-Gilloise 0–2 Ajax
Ajax 1–2 Union Saint-Gilloise
PSV Eindhoven 1–3 Union Saint-Gilloise
FC Utrecht 0–2 KRC Genk
📈 Goals are up in 12 of 15 European leagues so far.
🇧🇪 Pro League: +0.60 goals/game. Only 🇮🇹Serie A +0.75 and 🇳🇱 Eredivisie +0.64 saw bigger surges.
📉 🇩🇰 Superliga -0.09 and 🏴 Premier League -0.05.
Small-sample early season chaos, or a real shift across the continent?
📊 Gent have 25 points from 16.6 expected. That's +8.4, the biggest xG-overperformance in the Pro League after 9 rounds. Union (+6.1) and Club Brugge (+6.0) are next.
Cercle are the other extreme: 3 points from 11.3 expected. Who keeps their rythm up?
🌟 No Pro League breakout striker since 2020/21 has created chances like Tresoldi this season.
Club Brugge reportedly want €40M. This is the case for it. Ahead of Arokodare, Orban, Onuachu, Thiago, Undav and David in their breakout years. The UCL production is also there.
💸 10 years ago Union Saint-Gilloise were a semi-pro club in the second division. Now they've made the biggest profit in Belgian football history: €41.9m.
Even after inflation, it beats Genk's €28m from 2011/12, worth €40.0m today.
Is the Belgian money hierarchy shifting? 🧵
That profit record is also quite efficient. Union kept 34 cents of every euro they brought in. Only Standard 2008/09 and Genk 2011/12 (both 42%) kept more, on far smaller incomes. Charleroi matched it in 2007/08, on €11.4m of income.
📊 Anderlecht's all-time lead over Club Brugge is the smallest it's been since 1963. Only 145 points right now. Ten years ago it was 310. Brugge outscored them in 8 of the last 10, last season +33 points. At that pace they take top spot in 2035/36. Or maybe sooner?
Gent are +18 on Antwerp for 4th. That spot has changed hands at each of the last 5 seasons. Mechelen and Genk, the biggest risers of the last decade (up 3) play Saturday. Charleroi are the only top-12 club never to win the league or cup. At this pace, Union pass them by 29/30…
I got an interesting question via DM and I think it’s worth sharing it.
The 2447 Beerschot points are only the OG Beerschot (matricule 13), 1900/01 until 1991. The later Beerschot incarnations each have their own amount.
Germinal Ekeren, then GBA, then Beerschot AC 3530 - 1,020
Beerschot VA - 87
If you combine them all they'd have 3,554, which would be 4th, ahead of Gent (3,495) and Antwerp (3,477). The 1,020 includes Germinal Ekeren's seasons before the 1999 merger though, which people might argue shouldn't count as Beerschot.
⚽️ GOALS GOALS GOALS
3-0, 2-2, 3-0, 4-4, 2-1, 3-2, 4-0, 5-2.
This round had 37 goals in 8 games so far, joint-most per game since 2010.
And at 3.19 goals per game, this is the 'goaliest' season in 23 YEARS (2002/03). Is this the new JPL, where goals are king?
🏟️ Highest Weekly Attendance in European Football
🥇 Faroe Islands: 52.8 fans attending per 1000 people
🥈 Scotland: 23.8
🥉 Iceland: 22.7
4⃣ Cyprus: 17.5
5⃣ Norway: 16.7
6⃣ England & Wales: 15.2
7⃣ Portugal: 14.9
8⃣ Netherlands: 13.6
9⃣ Denmark: 13.5
🔟 Spain: 13.2
