Polymarket significantly changed the rules for the second time yesterday on the Russia x NATO military clash market, after $7m had already been traded. The new rules state that interceptions of strikes on ships in NATO countries territorial waters (which is sovereign territory), won’t be considered as a military clash. The original rules did not have any such carveout and it is impossible to know where Polymarkets bar-raising will finish before we place a bet on these markets. For example, would an intentional drone strike on Bucharest that is intercepted count if the target was a foreign-owned civilian building? Would the US defending a cruise ship from a drone strike while it’s docked in Miami count? (Weirdly, a recon drone shot down over any of those targets would 100% count) Although I don’t agree with it, I don’t have a huge problem with the actual ruling of the specific incident that was clarified yesterday. I believe the pattern of strikes on nearby ships, alongside statements from President Dan and EU officials, provided strong enough evidence of targeting Romanian territory. But it's a judgment call that could go either way. The trouble is the bar has now been raised significantly again for future incidents when millions has already been traded, and we can’t accurately price these markets without predictability that rules won’t change under our feet.