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KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ) profile picture

KJ 🐵

@BirdAppKJ

It makes me feel so good to hit "sleazebags" back -- much better than seeing a psychiatrist (which I never have!)

 Coastal Arizona
Joined August 2009
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Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)Photo by KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)
The world isn’t ready for the fact that Mark Carney is about to lead the Libs to a snap election victory.
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KJ 🐵 retweeted
jj (@Jamal___James) profile picture
jj@Jamal___James6h
I just noticed this. The LD 17 specifically created by the redistricting commission to "ensure that right-of-center communities in the broader Tucson area are able to elect a leader to represent them in the Tucson area."
Image from jj (@Jamal___James)
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Excellent thread
David Shor (@davidshor) profile pictureDavid Shor
@davidshor11h
Last night was a historic win for Democrats. We currently estimate Democrats will win ~57% of the two-party House vote and ~255-260 seats - the best House vote share for either party since Watergate, and likely the biggest majority in more than 30 years.
Image from David Shor (@davidshor)
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This is false. There is plenty of info that doesn't enter Silver's model but filters into prediction markets and makes them more accurate. Dems won NC-13, a seat where Silver's model gave them a 9% chance. Kalshi gave them a 40% chance. Traders knew things Silver's model didn't.
Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) profile pictureChris Hayes
@chrislhayes8h
I am 100% Team Nate in this beef. It’s *obvious* to anyone paying attention that the betting markets just moved over time towards the models. That’s the info they were working off of! They didn’t “discover” anything
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At last
Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) profile pictureDecision Desk HQ
@DecisionDeskHQ9h
Decision Desk HQ projects Amish Shah wins the AZ US House 1 General Election #DecisionMade: 8:39 PM EST Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
Image from Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ)
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This was my favorite trade of the midterms.
Image from KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)
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KJ 🐵 retweeted
Zub (@ZubbyBadger) profile picture
Zub
@ZubbyBadger19h
Joe is exactly right. Prediction markets were by far the best source for what was going on. Formerly reliable sources like the NYT needle were legitimately awful. I would say Kalshi was hours ahead in some cases.
Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) profile pictureJoe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart19h
THE HUGE WIN FOR PREDICTION MARKETS My only take from last night. Both in the runup to the vote and on election night, the prediction markets did exactly what they were supposed to do. A big confident forecast in the runup, and incredibly timely conveying of data as it dropped.
Image from Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart)
Image from Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart)
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Doug Ford on the U.S. midterms: "I was doing cartwheels down the street, and you ever seen a big guy like me doing cartwheels. I was jumping up and down when the results were coming in."
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First 2028 post: Ossoff built in a lab for the Dem Sunbelt Path.
Image from KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)
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Precinct-by-precinct swing from 2024 to 2026.
Image from The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer)
Image from The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer)
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Huge thanks to the people who worked with me on figuring out what was happening with the early vote, especially @tehspeleeng @BirdAppKJ and @ZacharyDonnini
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idk his profile shows a lifetime PnL of $5,000,000. I think he did OK yesterday
Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) profile pictureDustin Gouker
@DustinGoukerNov 4
tough night for :checks notes: ColonelButtlicker
Image from Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker)
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EV analysis is somewhat like astrology, but as @davidshor has shown, astrology has real predictive value if you believe in it! There are absolutely assumptions you can distill from the data that can refine your priors and error bars.
Jesse🔸⏹️ (@PoliticalKiwi) profile pictureJesse🔸⏹️@PoliticalKiwi15h
To illustrate how the value of early voting analysis: Two months ago, I prob had a worse forecast than any of these. On my final forecast, finalized a few hours before polls close, I called 22 races wrong, and had a Brier score of just 0.03379 (using the same races as Lakshya)
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I think this holds up pretty well! teapaw.org/BirdAppKJ/status/21136…
KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ) profile pictureKJ 🐵@BirdAppKJOct 23
Being unable to find signal within the noise of Early Voting data is a skill issue. To be fair, however, it's a skill issue a vast majority of the election twitter base possesses.
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To illustrate how the value of early voting analysis: Two months ago, I prob had a worse forecast than any of these. On my final forecast, finalized a few hours before polls close, I called 22 races wrong, and had a Brier score of just 0.03379 (using the same races as Lakshya)
Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) profile pictureLakshya Jain
@lxeagle1716h
Replying to @lxeagle17
This is a wonks-only postmortem, so please forgive me for one more: I think @NateSilver538 used to say that he'd prefer you just use Classic in a competition. But if you allow it (and we should!), then the best Brier Score model of the cycle is clearly Silver Bulletin's Deluxe.
Image from Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17)
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You are such a fucking moron. I’d have thought the embarrassment of last night might have shut you up for good.
Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) profile picturePatrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini17h
You can argue whether or not redistricting cost Republicans House seats via dummymander, but you can’t argue that it helped cost them at least two Southern Senate seats that are going to make it very difficult to control the chamber again in the near future.
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Not destroyed thoroughly enough yet for my liking.
Jen Fifield (@JenAFifield) profile pictureJen Fifield@JenAFifield16h
At the Maricopa County supervisors meeting just now, Republican Supervisor @ThomasGalvin said his party's election lies have "led to the destruction of the Republican party here in Arizona, and frankly around the country."
Republican Maricopa County Supervisor Thomas Galvin: "A message to my constituents and to my party, the Republican party. Arizona needs to move on from the Cyber Ninjas era. And my fellow Republicans need to stop lying about allegations and conspiracy theories about election fraud. I saw previous colleagues on the board of supervisors endure death threats, and were driven out of office. I had three new colleagues come into office and then I saw them subjected to the same things. They all came in telling voters that they respected their concerns about election conspiracy theories, but they quickly learned and saw that those conspiracy theories had no merit. And where they saw improvements to be made, they fought for improvements to be made. All three of them. Mark Stewart, Debbie Lesko and Kate Brophy McGee. But to my fellow Republicans who have been trafficking these lies for the last six years, you need to stop. Because you have led to the destruction of the Republican party here in A

ALT Republican Maricopa County Supervisor Thomas Galvin: "A message to my constituents and to my party, the Republican party. Arizona needs to move on from the Cyber Ninjas era. And my fellow Republicans need to stop lying about allegations and conspiracy theories about election fraud. I saw previous colleagues on the board of supervisors endure death threats, and were driven out of office. I had three new colleagues come into office and then I saw them subjected to the same things. They all came in telling voters that they respected their concerns about election conspiracy theories, but they quickly learned and saw that those conspiracy theories had no merit. And where they saw improvements to be made, they fought for improvements to be made. All three of them. Mark Stewart, Debbie Lesko and Kate Brophy McGee. But to my fellow Republicans who have been trafficking these lies for the last six years, you need to stop. Because you have led to the destruction of the Republican party here in A

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SEE YA LOMBOZO
National Newswatch (@natnewswatch) profile pictureNational Newswatch
@natnewswatchNov 4
Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford defeats Republican Joe Lombardo to become state's first Black governor nationalnewswatch.com/2026/1…
Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford defeats Republican Joe Lombardo to become…

Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford defeats Republican Joe Lombardo to become…

National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views.

nationalnewswatch.com
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Manifesting is real.
Image from KJ 🐵 (@BirdAppKJ)
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I can hear the Democrat weeping already. If you really thought that Texas would turn blue, you are one funny person. A valiant effort by Talarico though! Nothing like pro-abortion and gender change surgeries are your main talking points lol.
Election2026 Updates (@MadAboutSkin01) profile pictureElection2026 Updates
@MadAboutSkin01Oct 26
Breaking: With just 7 days of early voting left this is where republicans stand so far.. Polls are predicting a blue wave but as you can see this is not the case everywhere Republicans had a GREAT Monday: REPUBLICANS BEATING EXPECTATIONS: 🔴 Arizona 🔴 Texas REPUBLICANS HOLDING STRONG: 🔴 Michigan 🔴 Oregon 🔴 Maine 🔴 Iowa ⬆️ NEUTRAL: 🔵/🔴 Wisconsin 🔵/🔴 Florida ⬆️ 🔵/🔴 Pennsylvania ⬆️ 🔵/🔴 New York ⬇️ BLUE WAVE HAPPENING: 🔵 Nebraska ⬇️ 🔵 Ohio ⬇️ 🔵 Georgia 🔵 Nevada 🔵 South Carolina (New) 🔵 Kansas ⬆️ BLUE TSUNAMI 🔵 Virginia 🔵 North Carolina ⬇️ 🔵 New Jersey (New) Generally Improving position for Republicans in last 24 hours but some areas of real concern remain Detailed explanations below and where you disagree let me know in the comments
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Anyone who says that early voting data can't tell anything useful is a fucking moron.
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