That's a very important point. The dollar didn't have to kill the pound either. It first passed sterling in central bank reserves in the mid 1920s, then sterling actually took the lead back after the 1933 devaluation, and the two shared the top spot for most of the interwar years (Eichengreen has a great paper on this). Nobody woke up one morning and announced the pound was done, it just slowly mattered less. Which is why I'd rather hold something nobody can print or freeze.
teapaw.org/BitClops/status/210479…
Love this. Notice the trench zigzags instead of running straight, that was on purpose so one shell or one enemy soldier who got in couldn't hit the whole line. The ground still isn't done with that war either. Belgian farmers turn up so many shells every plowing season they call it the iron harvest, and Belgium's bomb disposal unit still hauls off around 150-200 tons a year. Wild to think somebody's great-grandpa dug that by hand under fire.
Isn't that the oldest story in crypto? Mt. Gox handled most of the world's btc trading back in 2014 and still lost about 850,000 coins, roughly 7% of all btc in existence at the time. Hack or false alarm, a balance on an exchange is just an IOU with a nice app on top. Not your keys, not your coins, and tonight is a pretty good night to finally figure out how a hardware wallet works.
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"A eunuch thinks getting castrated is something to be proud of, mocking others for having dicks."
Chinese still have the proverb game on lock
100%. Borrowing against an asset instead of selling it is the oldest move in the wealthy playbook. A loan isn't a sale, so there's no capital gains bill, and the asset keeps working for you in the background. Banks treating btc as collateral like a house or a stock portfolio is a quiet but huge step. Just keep the loan-to-value low, 2022 taught a lot of people that the hard way.
Love this. Royal families have kept their wealth in gold and land for centuries because they're thinking about their great grandkids, so seeing btc sit right next to Dubai real estate says a lot. Picking Coinbase to manage it means this is slow, boring family money, the kind that doesn't panic sell. Not bad for something that turns 18 in January. Wonder which royal family is next.
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100%. No pumps, no electricity, just gravity and patience. The trick is the outlet only has to sit a little lower than where the water started, so it pushes itself back up the other side. A lot of it ran through lead pipe, which is why we call it plumbing (plumbum is Latin for lead). Build it right once and it works for centuries.
Love this. Four empires stacked on one wall, and the Roman layer at the bottom still looks like the strongest part. If that's Istanbul, the city was an imperial capital from 330 AD all the way to 1922, almost 1,600 years. Every new crowd just built on what the last one left instead of starting over. Hard to find a better picture of how civilization actually works.
Bitclops retweeted
A snippet of fun from Unit 731:
"Human Experimentation and Atrocities
Victims: Referred to prisoners as "marutas" ("logs"), consisting mainly of Chinese, Korean, Russian, and Allied prisoners of war, including men, women, and children.
Vivisections: Subjects underwent live organ removal, amputations, and surgeries performed without anesthesia to study trauma and pathogen progression.
Disease & Biological Agents: Captives were deliberately infected with bubonic plague, cholera, anthrax, typhoid, and syphilis, and tested with gas chambers, flamethrowers, and explosive devices.
Field Testing: Biological and ceramic bombs filled with disease-carrying fleas were dropped on Chinese cities and villages, causing widespread epidemics and tens to hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Casualties: At least 3,000 to 14,000 people died directly from experiments in the facility, while field tests and germ warfare campaigns killed hundreds of thousands more. "
Bitclops retweeted
我很愿意认真回答这位德国朋友的疑问。
你的第一个问，其实是在说，由于中国是一个威权政府，因此人民在政治上不受认真对待。
这个命题本身就是错误的。威权政府，并不意味着人民不受认真对待。民主政府，也不意味着人民就受到认真对待。
新加坡是威权国家，菲律宾是民主国家，难道新加坡人的处境，不如菲律宾人吗？中国是威权国家，印度是民主国家，难道中国人的处境，不如印度人吗？
你的第二个问，你的发问本身并不严谨。不能笼统地说，中国人没有政治自由。这个问题要分两个维度来讲。
1、政治参与自由。
从这个维度讲，中国任何人有参与政治的自由。中国人都有权利申请入党、考公务员。筛选规则与民主制度不同，但不等于中国人没有参与政治的自由。
中国制度与民主制度的区别在于：
民主制度下，一个人只要有钱，可以在任何时候参与政治。就像川普一辈子没有从政，老了突然想要竞选总统，他就可以参选，而且成功了。
但在中国，任何官员都必须从基层公务员做起。一个人无法因为有钱，就能一步登天当上高官。
这种制度的好处有：
A、公平性。
中国有大量的高层领导人出身平民家庭，如胡锦涛、温家宝、汪洋、李强，等等。像习近平这种红二代，反而是个意外。
B、专业性。
任何一个高层领导人，都必须经过几十年不同级别岗位的历练，他对国家各个层面的情况的了解，以及他的治理经验，不是一个企业家、一个明星，或者一个未治理过一个城市的议员，所能相提并论的。
C、远见性。
由于领导人不受制于短期的、非理性的民意，因此可以规划长远的发展战略，并以唯一执政党确保该战略的长期、有效的实施。
D、政策不受资本干涉。
你选择从政，就不能从商。你选择从商，就不能从政。这样一来，资本的归资本，政治的归政治，资本无法干涉政治。
2、政治权利自由。
当然，中国制度有其“表面上”的代价。为什么只是“表面上”的，后面再说。先说这种代价。
代价就是中国人不拥有谩骂政府、抨击政策的自由。我们可以批评政府，但必须在一种就事论事的理性语境中。我们不能喊“习近平下台”或者“共产党下台”。
我们也不拥有全民选举的自由，建立政党的自由。
这些“代价”为什么只是表面上的，可以从一则寓言说起：
一农场主临死前问儿子；猪抱怨饲料太差，牛报怨活太重，鸡报怨窝太脏，怎么办？ 儿子说：“喂好饲料，干轻活，清理鸡窝。” 农场主摇摇头说：你啥都别做，给他们选票，让它们选择你或者你媳妇管它们，让它们以为这个家是它们做主。
这个寓言让我们思考，作为人民，我们要的是什么？我们要的其实是更好的生活，而不是选票以及骂政府的自由。
回到开头那个举例，新加坡缺少很多民主国家所具备的政治自由，但没有人会认为新加坡人受到压迫。
这就涉及到自由的定义，自由到底是什么？
按照罗斯福的定义，自由包括：言论自由、信仰自由、免于匮乏、免于恐惧。
在我们计算一个社会的自由度时，我们计算的是自由的总量，而不是单项自由的含量。
举个例子，很多非洲国家拥有选票和骂政府的自由，但人民生活贫困，出行只能靠双脚。我在中国，生活富足、商品丰富、服务便捷、社区安全，我坐3个小时的高铁可以抵达一座大城市，我也有经济条件时不时出国旅游。
你认为非洲人自由，还是我自由？
诚然，中国还有很多人口，在物质生活上并不自由，但这是经济发展不充分导致的，不是政治压迫导致的。一个贫穷地区，无会因为给你民众选票和骂政府的自由，他们就变富裕了。
因此，当你谈自由的时候，你要计算自由的总量，不能单看一项自由的有无和多寡。你也不能将经济问题，归咎于某一项政治自由的问题。
坦率讲，我觉得你们的民主制度，已经病入膏肓了，中国人并不羡慕你们那种制度。
That's a very important point. People anchor on the $543 share price and forget it was close to a 4x premium on the btc underneath. The premium is the market's mood, btc per share is the part Strategy can actually move. I'd rather watch that number grow every quarter than try to guess where mNAV lands. Way less stressful too.
Love this. He didn't do it totally alone either, a local guy named René Lafortune helped him plant those trees for decades. They also brought in over 100 giant tortoises. Everyone called him crazy for 40 years and now it's a national park anyone can visit. Imagine what the rest of us could build if we put the phone down and picked one thing for 40 years.
This one hits hard. There are 58,000+ names on the Wall in DC and every one of them was somebody's Joe. Guys who might not have shared a lunch table back home ended up trusting each other with their lives. John 15:13 was written for moments like that. Grateful men like him were willing to talk about it on camera.
That's a very important point. At 8% the debt doubles about every 9 years (rule of 72), so anything that just keeps pace with it is running in place. Cash in a 4% savings account loses ground on that math before you even pay ordinary income tax on the interest. That's the part most people never run. Fix the money, fix the world.
Ha! That whole "it's over" to "we're back" round trip on the chart is about $1,200, roughly 1.5%. The S&P does that on a boring Tuesday and nobody writes a eulogy. CT watches the 1 hour chart like it's a heart monitor. Buy, hold, and go do something useful with the other 23 hours.
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Bitclops retweeted
不懂人性
永远都是废物
1、不要碰任何贫穷的东西，包括人。
其实贫穷不是缺点，贫穷是所有缺点的总和，
一个人的缺点太多了，自然就贫穷了。
贫穷的背后是一套麻烦的系统。
认知低下，思想混乱，边界缺失。
2、穷人总喜欢跟你谈感情、谈善良、谈道德、谈关系，就是不跟你谈钱，谈价值交换。
穷人一直穷，原因只有一个，
就是他们一直没有意识到，
人与人之间，利益才是一切交往的根本。
3、一百年过去了，田里站着的依然是闰土，
考场里坐着的依旧是范进
街上蹲着的仍然是祥林嫂。
高校里走着的，依然是孔乙己，
马路上跑着的，仍然是骆驼祥子。
4、牛马羊不生崽，最着急的却是豺狼虎豹！
什么是好人?就是他们占尽你的便宜，
而你没有反抗，他们才管你叫好人
5、当下环境别冲动创业，开奶茶店、花店
二手市场，九成新的设备都是这些人甩卖的！
6、旧社会，很多女人宁愿嫁给富人做小妾，
也不愿意嫁给普通人做正妻。
解放后立了婚姻法，实行一夫一妻，
目的就是让底层的布衣，都能找着媳妇儿。
一段时间内解决了问题，
但刚刚过去几十年乡镇光棍成堆，
城市剩女如云，宁当剩女，不嫁布衣。
2000年来，进步不足一厘米，
从春秋战国时期到现在，人性没有实质性改变
7、婚姻是长期的价值交换，这话虽毒，
却戳破很多人的幻想，两个人搭伙过日子，
本质上就是一场价值博弈，
你没有必要弄成爱情的样子。
8、和女人玩，如果你发现她漂亮、情商又高，
说话滴水不漏，让你感觉很舒服。
千万不要觉得她对你有好感，
亦或者是你的魅力让她蛰伏。
这种女人能练就如此手段，
一般都有极其丰富的经验。
你以为能把住这种女人，
殊不知你在她眼中才是猎物。
9、瞎子一旦恢复视力，
第一件事就是扔掉他手上的拐杖，
哪怕这拐杖，曾帮了他很多年。
10、社会的本质就是人吃人，
你没本事，谁都会欺负你，包括父母。
11、当事态不利于你的时候
尽量闭嘴，静就是吉，不乱就是不错。
真正的强大不是对抗，而是允许一切发生。
允许遗憾、愚蠢、丑恶，虚伪，
允许付出没有回报。尤其是心，千万不能乱，
事缓则圆，顺时多做事，逆时多看书。
12、层次越低的人，反驳欲就越强。
如果别人说你两句，你就受不了，
被别人两句话干扰了，
吃不好，睡不好，你得有多脆弱。
何必计较呢？在乌鸦的世界里，天鹅也有罪，
思想不在一个高度，尊重就好，
三观不在一个层次，微笑就好。
不要和不重要的人，计较重要的事。
13、越是亲近的人，越难接受你突然发达，
更容易嫉妒和记恨，人性复杂，
在他们眼里你和他们是同一个水平的
为何你现在过得这么好，他们却不能。
14、什么才是最烂的底层家庭
就是给不了你资源、底气和退路
更不可能给你去撑腰
却给你罗列了一箩筐的规矩
教你如何懂事、教你如何忍让
教你别出头、教你凡事都要委屈自己
从头到尾都在教你怎么吃亏，
小心翼翼的把你养成一头温顺的绵羊。
等你长大了直接把你丢进狼群里，
最后却反过来问你，为什么那么没用？
15、你越会说话，别人就越舒服，
在你需要帮忙时，就越会帮助你。
16、没必要感激任何人，养猪只是为了吃肉，
并不是让猪过幸福的生活。
19、能够伤你很深的人，
往往是那些与我们关系亲近的人。
20、你如果在某一件事上获得了成功，
你就会觉得世界还算公平。
21、做人，心要冷一点，
不要轻易与人交心，深谙人性。
成年人的世界里利益为先，不论对错。
22、赚钱本身就不是讲道理的，
法律是赚钱的底线，道德同样不可忽视。
23、出来混是要靠背景讲关系，
这句话在一定程度上
反映了社会现实中的某些现象。
24、你不优秀认识谁也没有用，
真正优秀的人，更容易吸引他人的注意。
25、不要逢人就说自己穷，
因为每个人对金钱的需求和欲望都是不同的
26、不要总想着去搞人际关系，
其实如果你的实力配不上，
再好的人脉关系也难以维持。
Ha! Everybody's arguing about the $1.6M and nobody's asking what a 2036 dollar buys. At 3% inflation a dollar loses about a quarter of its value in ten years, and 3% is extremely conservative. So part of that target is just the ruler shrinking. Hours of work per coin is the number I'd actually watch.
Disagree. Gold lost its job as money in two steps, 1933 when Americans had to turn theirs in, and 1971 when the dollar stopped being convertible at all. The problem was never the metal, it's that you can't carry it or send it, so banks held it for you and eventually kept it. btc does the same job without the vault. Calling it "diversification" is fine if that's what gets it past the investment committee though.
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