Bitcoin aficionado & minimalist. I'm trading, not hodling. Less narratives, more data. Personal & algorithmic opinions only. No investment advice.
Joined July 2019
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Bob finally accepting the bear market hypothesis 2 months after me 馃槈. The 4-year-cycle is dead. Long live the the 4-year-cycle!
The PLC model from 2019 predicted the BTC bottom nicely at 15k for 2022. For end 2026 it predicts a 50k-60k bottom. 52-60% down. Sounds fine with me.
It does not predict tops very well because of scarce data. There is a lot more bottom data, why it works better for them.
What to make of the current price of bitcoin?
In Sep 2019 I predicted that btc would continue to move in the corridor defined by the red and green bands in the future.
You can see in red how the price has fared compared to those predictions since then. 馃У
hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw
BTC did not hold 90k. Price action is very weak. 32% down already. First time below the 50 weekly MA since the start of this bull market in 2023. Second week below it.
Hold & Sell Dillema
Both my brother & a friend are still holding BTC. I told them a while ago that next year will be a bear market and that 126k was likely the top.
They don't want to believe it and think "This time is different" or that the bull market will last longer.
... tied to the position. Exiting too difficult & feels too final. Coming up with a plan on the fly does not work. Needs to be done before you are in the situation.
The 4-year cycle has repeated too many times to dismiss. Still, some people don't want to believe it.
I expect to see below 100k soon. No bullrun this year so far. Only bigger rally in Apr/May.
CHARON did some dip trades with profits in Oct. But I made more money selling AI models than trading this year. Looking forward to do AI daytrading when I find the time to get it ready.
People piled into BTC as gold broke down yesterday. Didn't help. Back down again. My algos got stopped out. I exited in time.
We might have seen the BTC peak at 126k this cycle. Still a small chance that it will do a new ATH this year. But I don't like the price action so far.
All algos out again. BECKI very likely exits on today's close. I did not like the price action & manually exited 1.5 days ago in profit. 80% of the time my gut warns me correctly.
Either no bullrun this autumn or in 2-4 weeks. BTC did not behave like 2023/24 this year.
Perfect conditions for a late year & final bullrun of this 4 year cycle. And BTC made a new ATH on a weekend.
All my algos are in now. CHARON only entered today as it missed it by a tiny bit 4 days ago. On live I manually made CHARON enter with DRAGON. Now I got a 2.5x position.
AI Trading
Model v2.2 might still work. After a lot of debugging it turned out that ChatGPT messed up the live trading code. I fired ChatGPT, because it made too many mistakes & was too bossy. Annoying combo. Now Claude & I clean up the faulty code to make it work. Almost there.
Claude added a bug that showed me how to make the AI model stay longer in trades and not exit on smaller fluctuations. I love these bugs that tell you how to finally make a trading algo or model work.
That signal below from 2 weeks ago was early. Got stopped out.
Now BECKI is 馃煝 again - valid at daily close. BEAST with 100% progress already confirmed the signal. DRAGON entered already. CHARON would have entered if price had moved a tiny bit higher earlier. BEYOND is silent.
Trading Systems & LLMs
I'm still working on a AI daytrading/scalping system and plan to improve shorting in my CHARON algo for next year's potential bear market.
I also thought about a trading system that detects bottoms & tops, which is quite different from my breakout algos..
CHARON is actually my first algo that includes pieces of code from an AI. My latest AI trading system was fully written by an LLM. Why I made such fast progess.
Still, annoying when LLMs look 1-3h for a solution, cannot find one & you have to provide it yourself...