Professor of economics, #Bitcoin, Bitcoin education, "I am not the green candle", Mainstream economist and pleb

UK
Joined February 2021
Bitcoin economist retweeted
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 $130 BILLION MICHIGAN STATE RETIREMENT FUND JUST DISCLOSED HOLDING OVER $12,800,000 WORTH OF #BITCOIN PENSIONS ARE GOING LONG BTC VERY BULLISH 🚀
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
$GLXY earnings were exceedingly insightful for current Texas datacenter dynamics (relevant for $IREN, $CIFR, etc.) - quotes below. Large scale 2028 power is exceedingly valuable - what does that make large scale 2027 power? Helios II at 800 MW for 2028 is a gold mine - what does that make IREN's Sweetwater 1 (1.4 GW, already energized, clusters coming online by Q4'27)? 1. "The market for large scale power via data centers has become increasingly constrained, while demand for capacity beginning in 2028 and beyond has strengthened. With more than 800 MW of secured power and supporting infrastructure, we believe Helios II is an even more valuable asset today than it was just a few months ago. With delivery plan for 2028, we have the flexibility to evaluate our opportunities and get the right deal. We have built Galaxy by adapting to changing markets and being disciplined about where we commit capital. These are large, long-term agreements, and we are not going to compromise on terms just to meet an announcement date. We continue to have productive and active discussions with prospective customers with a focus on maximizing long-term value for shareholders." 2. "We saw several important shifts in market dynamics beginning in late summer that we believe have meaningfully strengthened our competitive position. Forward power availability has become increasingly constrained, with new power approvals more difficult to secure and delays in competing developments limiting the amount of large-scale compute capacity that can realistically be delivered between 2028 and 2030. At the same time, we're seeing a meaningful increase in demand from hyperscalers, frontier labs, and neoclouds now looking to secure capacity for 2028 and beyond to support existing backlogs and future growth. Underlying demand for compute remains as strong as we've ever seen it. Financing markets have also become more selective, and we believe access to capital will increasingly favor developers with proven execution capabilities, high-quality counterparties, and financing structures that appropriately allocate risk. Having successfully delivered Helios phase I, with phase II fully funded and progressing on schedule, we are building a track record that we believe will differentiate Galaxy in this environment. Meanwhile, the evolving regulatory and political landscape in Texas has created additional uncertainty around future data center development. Based on our current understanding of the applicable requirements, we do not believe Helios II is subject to the same uncertainties facing certain other projects, further strengthening its relative attractiveness. Taken together, these developments have changed how we evaluate the opportunity at Helios II. We're taking the time to engage with the right counterparties and evaluate structures that we believe can maximize long-term shareholder value for Galaxy. The focus of our active conversations is squarely on investment-grade hyperscalers or counterparties supported by investment-grade credit enhancements, considering not only headline economics and counterparty quality, but also critical lease terms, probability of execution, and future growth potential outside of the Helios campus. Beyond Helios II, we've made meaningful progress through ERCOT's Batch Zero process. As announced in September, five of our Texas data center projects received conditional Batch Zero classifications, representing approximately 4.2 GW of capacity. That includes more than 1.6 GW of previously approved base load capacity at Helios I and Helios II, which remains largely unaffected by the ongoing ERCOT process. Our three expansion projects, Caspian, Selene, and Helios III, received studied load classifications, representing an additional 2.6 GW of potential capacity. While we submitted Caspian for base load classification, ERCOT ultimately reclassified it as studied load, and our subsequent dispute for reconsideration was denied. Although that wasn't the outcome we had sought, Caspian remains part of the Batch Zero study, and we expect greater clarity on power allocation and anticipated energization timelines for these projects in April 2027, based on the timelines communicated to us by ERCOT. These classifications cover a substantial portion of our broader development pipeline of more than 5.7 GW, providing a foundation for potential growth well beyond the initial phases of Helios." 3. "We had been pursuing opportunities throughout the year at early stages, given that Helios II's energization timeline really isn't until the middle of 2028 at the earliest expected right now. Those conversations got pretty serious going into the summer, and then a lot of stuff happened. We saw actual projects around us getting delayed. We saw regulatory headwinds, not just in Texas, but across the country, tightening up, and therefore an expectation that available power on the forward was going to be tighter than I think we or the market really understood. At the same time, we saw a number of financing structures start to come into the market. Think like investment grade wraps around non-investment grade potential counterparties that we thought were interesting, and that we were evaluating. The issue there is the devils are in the details, and so an investment grade wrap that doesn't actually achieve investment grade protection for both our debt and our equity isn't really an investment grade wrap. You don't really know those things until you get into the details and you get to the finer points. Finally, to sort of back that up, the financing markets, obviously, around that time also started backing up and the focus on structure counterparty really came into light for us and for the whole market. With all that as the backdrop, we decided to take a pause, take a breath, reignite conversations more broadly. That sort of happened at exactly the same time that a number of the big hyperscalers started turning their attention to 2028 available power. That's what led us to decide to broaden out the process. That's why now we're in active conversations with a number of high-grade potential tenants who are now very focused on figuring out what their power strategy is for 2028." 4. "There is nothing today holding us back from executing on what would be a deal with an end tenant. The speculation around late summer and the timing and the conversation we are in, we could have signed a deal had we wanted to. A lot of that was in our control to make a decision to go forward. We proactively chose not to because of the change in market dynamics. That still sort of exists today. There is obviously Texas. There is a lot going on in Texas, from a regulatory perspective. There are some key dates coming up. In December, we expect to have clarity on audit results that we have submitted across the assets, including Helios II. All of those things. In April of 2027, we expect to get allocations of Batch Zero, Studied Load, power, et cetera. All of those things are on potential tenants' minds. What I would say quite clearly is, there are absolutely investment-grade tenants who, despite questions around the ERCOT process, want to contract and lock up power. When they do the work on our portfolio, in particular on Helios I and Helios II, we think they generally come to the same conclusion we have, which is Helios II is a pretty unique asset in terms of when its studies were approved prior to the batch process and the likelihood that Helios II is going to be unimpacted generally by any of the uncertainty. Nonetheless, those dates are key, and for some of the tenant base looking at it, they're looking for us to pass through those unscathed as we expect to, in order to sort of finally contract. Again, that's not the entire base. There are absolutely deals we expect we could do. The entire universe, clarity on the regulatory front, in Texas in particular, would help the process along." 5. "For Helios I, II, and III under development, we have all the permits in hand needed to begin and continue construction. There are still a handful of permits that the TCEQ primarily would issue and or approve that are not permits that would prevent us either from continuing construction or ultimately delivering and energizing data halls for the client. They are unrelated to cooling. They primarily relate around the potential to operate diesel gen backups and some other potable water and things on site. They are not limiters. All the permits we need for those things are in hand already. For future developments that will require sort of those level of permits, they are months to years out from when we would actually need them to begin construction. We are just very confident that while today there is a permitting freeze, while ERCOT and all the stakeholders are attempting to comply with Governor Abbott's announcement, we are not of the belief that those timelines are going to intersect anywhere close to one another, that we have concerns that permitting is going to be an issue for us at Helios." 6. "From a counterparty perspective, as you pointed out, we are not seeing broadly really any pushback to, "Hey, let us just not engage until we see clarity in Texas." People know power exists in Texas. People know power is affordable and getting cheaper in Texas. People know that that is going to be a Tier 1 market, we believe and they believe for a lot of time to come for these kinds of assets. So, the conversations we are having really, they want to understand the dynamics at play with our assets, but they are certainly willing to move past that pretty quickly. On the lender side, first and foremost, the existing facilities we have in place, are not impacted at all by any potential perceived uncertainty around the Texas regulations. So there is no covenant breaches. There is no risk to capital availability, in those facilities. Those are fine. On a go-forward basis, I do believe the risk on investing capital in advance of knowing for sure whether you have the right to energize is a risk that we, in theory, would be taking should we choose to do that, and therefore, what lenders would be choosing to take along with us. Lenders generally are a lot more conservative than we would be, as a developer in the equity. The good news for us is, as Tony pointed out, our potential financing needs outside of our own capital start to get highlighted as we turn the corner into Q1 and to Q2 of 2027. From a timing perspective, we, for better or for worse, have the luxury of being able to assess the regulatory environment, see how December goes with respect to the RFI audit results, choose to deploy our own capital at risk based on that landscape. We really don't have to go to the markets to have conversations or will want to go to the markets to have conversations until there's a lot more clarity in 2027. Not all of our competitors are in that situation. We happen to have the luxury of being able to do that, and we're happy with that."
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
GALAXY $GLXY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $8.7B 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.83 (Est. -$0.06) 🟢 🔹 Net Income: $322.8M 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $454.7M Segment Adjusted Gross Profit: 🔹 Digital Assets: $71M 🔹 Data Centers: $79M 🔹 Treasury & Corporate: $419M Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 Cash, Stablecoins & U.S. Treasuries: $4.9B 🔹 AUM & Assets Under Stake: $10.4B; +46% QoQ 🔹 Net Inflows: Over $160M 🔹 Average Loan Book: $1.8B; +27% QoQ 🔹 Data Center CapEx: $757M; +69% YoY Capital Return: 🔹 Buyback Authorization: $200M 🔹 Shares Repurchased: Approximately 9.8M YTD Announcements: 🔹 Data Center Power Pipeline: Over 5.7 GW 🔹 Helios I, Phase II: Fully financed and under construction Comments: 🔸 “The progress we're making across both businesses is strengthening and diversifying our earnings profile, while positioning Galaxy to capitalize on substantial growth opportunities.”
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
WhiteFiber Continuum isn't a data center interconnect, it's one cluster across sites. Boris Lukashev, Principal Architect at @WhiteFiber_, explains why training sees the same RDMA fabric as normal, no federated mechanism or software changes required. Watch: whitefiber.com/whitefiber-co… #AskAnEngineer #WhiteFiberContinuum #AIInfrastructure
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
Novogratz just clarified whats happening with the second tenant for Helios 2! It turns out Galaxy walked AWAY from a Helios 2 lease this summer, passing because the power constraint got bigger Mike Novogratz on the call today: "we ultimately decided not to move forward on the terms being considered" He said the market for large-scale power data centers "has become increasingly constrained, while demand for capacity beginning in 2028 and beyond has strengthened" Galaxy's president added that new power approvals are harder to get and competing projects are getting delayed, which limits how much compute can actually be delivered from 2028 to 2030 That makes Helios 2's 800+ MW of secured power worth more, not less "we believe Helios 2 is an even more valuable asset today than it was just a few months ago" And they're in no rush: "we're not going to compromise on terms just to meet an announcement date" On top of a new tenant at a higher price incoming, they expect to exit 2027 at an $800-850M annualized leasing run rate This is huge for Galaxy!
$GLXY just reported its Q3 earnings and The Streets consensus was completely WRONG They expected a big loss and instead: - They made $0.83/share - Net income came in at $323M, up from an $85M loss in Q2 (most of that came from investment gains). - $455M of adjusted EBITDA with $395M coming from Treasury & Corporate Data Centers adjusted EBITDA hit $69M, up from $11M, in the first full quarter of Helios I Phase I (133 MW). That's right in line with $80M of lease revenue at a 90%+ margin They also: - Added a new $200M buyback - Closed a $3.5B note offering to fund Helios I Phase II - Grew AUM plus assets under stake 46% from Q2 to $10.4B - Have a power pipeline of 5.7 GW+ It’s time the market starts giving Galaxy credit where credit is due. They are growing 2 separate businesses across 2 different sectors and they are great at both!
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
$GLXY earnings for anyone who missed it⬇️
GALAXY $GLXY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $8.7B 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.83 (Est. -$0.06) 🟢 🔹 Net Income: $322.8M 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $454.7M Segment Adjusted Gross Profit: 🔹 Digital Assets: $71M 🔹 Data Centers: $79M 🔹 Treasury & Corporate: $419M Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 Cash, Stablecoins & U.S. Treasuries: $4.9B 🔹 AUM & Assets Under Stake: $10.4B; +46% QoQ 🔹 Net Inflows: Over $160M 🔹 Average Loan Book: $1.8B; +27% QoQ 🔹 Data Center CapEx: $757M; +69% YoY Capital Return: 🔹 Buyback Authorization: $200M 🔹 Shares Repurchased: Approximately 9.8M YTD Announcements: 🔹 Data Center Power Pipeline: Over 5.7 GW 🔹 Helios I, Phase II: Fully financed and under construction Comments: 🔸 “The progress we're making across both businesses is strengthening and diversifying our earnings profile, while positioning Galaxy to capitalize on substantial growth opportunities.”
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
$GLXY delivered impressive Q3 headline earnings numbers this morning! As a remninder: $MARA will likely deliver somewhere in the ballpark of $500-$600 Million in GAAP Net Profit when they report Q3 earnings (although pro analysts are still somehow stupidly forecasting a loss)
$GLXY delivered quarterly revenue of $8.7 Billion and a GAAP Net Profit of $323 Million in their fiscal quarter that ended on September 30, 2026 Link: investor.galaxy.com/static-f…
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
🚨 @galaxyhq Reports $323 Million Q3 Net Income as Data Centers Profit Jumps 498% 🚨 ⚡ $323 million — net income vs. an $85 million loss in Q2, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $455 million vs. a $77 million loss ⚡ 87% — share of adjusted EBITDA that came from Treasury and Corporate ($395 million), which the company credits to "significant appreciation across our investments portfolio" ⚡ $69 million — Data Centers adjusted EBITDA, up 498% from $11 million, in the first full quarter of the Helios I Phase I lease, with all 133 megawatts delivered to CoreWeave ⚡ $3.5 billion — senior secured notes completed to fully finance Helios I Phase II, with data hall deliveries scheduled to start in Q2 2027 ⚡ 830 megawatts — approved Helios II capacity not yet leased, with talks ongoing with prospective tenants and a total pipeline of over 5.7 gigawatts ⚡ $4.9 billion — cash, stablecoins and U.S. Treasuries, up 99% from $2.5B in Q2, plus a new $200 million share buyback after the last one retired 9.8 million shares $GLXY
This morning Galaxy (Nasdaq: $GLXY) reported third quarter 2026 results. See below for Q3 highlights. Read the full release: galaxy.visitlink.me/ywCFGD
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
$IREN: Market Hungry for Powered Shells in 2027 @tejasybhakta is AI Founder who used to worked at Tesla on FSD. He’s either in the market for Colo or has friends who are. He says the quiet to Elon’s tweet out loud: there’s no more datacenter space anymore. Everyone who is selling Colocation is a reseller to a reseller.
there is no more real datacenter space left in the US 99% of people claiming they have capacity are resellers reselling a reseller who's reselling a seller who owns a patch of dirt with enough power to run 3 used toasters. or a colo expanding in Q4 '27 hardware prices will be flat and rentals will skyrocket
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
$WYFI is ~$430m MC as of now. $WYFI operates approximately ~50MW IT load across 4 facilities. Not aiming to develop - OPERATING. $WYFI will have $300m ARR by the end of 2026. Sometimes you must admit a stock is simply mis-priced.
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
BREAKING: 🇨🇭 $426 BILLION SWISS PRIVATE BANK J. SAFRA SARASIN JUST ANNOUNCED THEY OWN OVER $17,500,000 WORTH OF #BITCOIN ONE OF THE MOST PRESTIGIOUS BANKS IN ALL OF EUROPE. THIS IS HUGE 🔥
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
LIGHTNING LABS LAUNCHES WAVELENGTH ON BITCOIN MAINNET, ENABLING AI AGENTS TO MAKE AUTONOMOUS PAYMENTS Lightning Labs has opened Wavelength to everyone, allowing AI agents to send and receive Bitcoin payments over Lightning without human approval for each transaction. Agents can autonomously pay for API calls, purchase data, and transact with other agents for fractions of a cent using Lightning and L402, without credit cards, accounts, or API keys. Developers can integrate payments into apps without running Lightning nodes, managing channels, or sourcing liquidity. The self-custodial toolkit supports independent on-chain exits, with initial limits of 300,000 sats per wallet and a 0.25% service fee on Lightning payments. Wavelength remains in alpha, with stablecoin support planned.
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 GIANT EXCHANGE COINBASE JUST CONFIRMED IT'S HELPING JPMORGAN, CITI, AND PNC LET CLIENTS BUY #BITCOIN DIRECTLY IN THEIR BANKING APPS THEIR GOAL IS "TO FACILITATE EVERYONE’S ABILITY TO BUY BTC" BTC IS GOING MAINSTREAM 🚀
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
Strategy has repurchased $205M of $STRC. As of 10/25/26, we hold 848,517 $BTC and $5.1B of USD Assets. $MSTR strategy.com/press/strategy-…
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
The notion that GPU debt and data center financing is *closed* is laughable. As of now, the world is separated between those who say they know, and those who actually know. If @jvisserlabs is right, intel is more valuable than equity, so let me tell you this: selective credit markets means the due diligence goes beyond your traditional ways of finding out the winners from the losers. I will gladly go on the record here and say that based on my latest, the debt markets are not closed for $IREN. Best of luck to the others.
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
It really is that simple. 👀 Do not fade this Bitcoin bull run.
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
My good friend Monte Carlo and I ran Bitcoin out to 2034. 5,000 times 🎲 Not one run ended below today's $80K. The median finish: $1.48M 🚀 - - - Each line on the chart is one run, and the pink curve on the right shows the final distribution in 2034. Even the bottom 5% finish around $464K, almost 6x from here. He's very optimistic, and honestly so am I 😄
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 10/24 footage confirms massive expansion is underway at $IREN's Mackenzie site in BC. Will @danroberts0101 discuss this on the 11/5 earnings call? More details to come!
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Bitcoin economist retweeted
I’ve been thinking about @elonmusk’s deliberate weekend posting about neoclouds, and I don’t buy this as disinterested commentary. Yes, financing has tightened, and some companies will most certainly take the beat. But we shouldn’t ignore the bigger picture. First, the timing. SpaceX has just secured $40B in debt to buy GPUs. He then tells the market that companies whose revenue comes from AI infrastructure are about to face mass failures. SpaceX gets to expand while competitors are being called as financial disasters. The double standard… remember, SpaceX is making an enormous bet on AI compute too. The difference is that it has Starlink’s launch revenue to support its financing. Sure, but it doesn’t automatically make competing AI infrastructure businesses bad businesses. I acknowledge that credit conditions have deteriorated over the past two weeks… but tighter financing doesn’t mean AI demand has disappeared, contracts have become worthless, or every neocloud is soon to be facing bankruptcy. And the effect on competitors is enormous. When one of the most influential people in the market publicly predicts an industry’s collapse, he’s clearly helping shape sentiment around companies that already face serious capital requirements thus making financing even harder.. and if investors come to see SpaceX as the only kind of company capable of financing AI infrastructure at scale, that is a very convenient narrative for SpaceX. Maybe Musk genuinely believes most neoclouds won’t survive.. he may even be right about the eventual consolidation among the weaker players. But I don’t believe we should automatically treat his commentary as an impartial warning from someone with no stake in the outcome. He has his own enormous business interests in AI infrastructure, and his company benefits from being seen as the exception to the rule he’s describing. And it bothers me how he’s presenting a complex situation as if the outcome is already clear. AI infrastructure is one of the biggest investment opportunities of this era. The financing risks are real, but so is the demand. We should be evaluating individual companies on their contracts, power, execution, cash flows and ability to fund their expansion, not letting one billionaire’s narrative decide which businesses deserve to survive.
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The AI bubble is now cancelled. Buckle up. Source: Anthropic S-1
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