Blake St.Clair

I’ve seen enough people ask that I’ll break down the math. Brandon Aubrey XP%: 97% NFL average 2Pt rate: 48% Key assumptions: You score twice and get stops. OT win probability is 50% If you kick the XP twice, you have a 95% chance of sending game to OT, 50% chance of winning in OT. 47.5% chance at winning the game. If you go for two: Get first, kick XP on second and win in regulation: 46.6% of time, win 100% Get first, miss XP and go to OT: 1.4% of time, win 50% Miss first, get second and go to OT: 24.9% of time, win 50% of time Miss first and second 2-Point: 27.6% of time, guaranteed loss By going for two, your win probability jumps to 59.8% chance. So if you guarantee me we get two scores and two stops, you’ll win ~47% of the time kicking extra points, and ~60% of the time going for two. The reason it doesn’t jive with coaches/fans is because delaying a loss feels psychologically advantageous… but losing in OT vs losing in regulation is the same result