Big get for $SPCX

The bottleneck is not chips or even power. It's money. Rates on bonds up. Equity prices down. Equity financing more expensive. Less money to spend on capex. IDK but doesn't seem great.

$META said ARPU on Muse will eventually be higher than existing ARPU on family of apps. That's triple digit. Incredibly bullish for META if it happens - would 2x revenue at least, using low end of Zuck comments. But where does the share come from? Agentic shopping is not nearly enough GMV to take unless they take a substantial chunk of the TAM and fully disrupt companies like $AMZN. You start killing retail then you also kill your ad customers. Just seems like there are real problems with the napkin math playing out.

$SNAP in the positive FCF club. Fwiw.

Muse is cool. But the most talked about consumer use case seems to be agentic commerce which I struggle to see as solving a real problem for people. Consumers don't mind shopping. Whether I tell Muse what I want to buy or whether I tell Amazon, I still have to think about it and decide. And I doubt most people will be OK with Muse proactively buying stuff for them. To be fair, researching travel and price comparing on big ticket things is definitely helpful, but not sure why Muse more uniquely qualified for that use case than any other LLM. Most important metric for $META over next 12-18 months will be Muse users.

This is a big deal. Strategic acquisition and verticalization of value based oncology care continues leaving $STLN as uniquely scare and thus strategic from here. AONC has no speciality pharma piece and yet is getting bought for 17x gross profit. $STLN is the last multi state actually-acquirable platform. What's left outside STLN is subscale: Utah Cancer Specialists (~40), Cancer Care Northwest (~30), Western Michigan (~30), plus Levitate Ridge's early West Coast platform. There are 2,000+ oncology groups in the US, but almost none with multi-state density. Cardinal has the smallest footprint and no VBC capability, which makes it the most plausible remaining strategic — followed by a payer (Carelon, Optum) or PE. Key point is that we believe $STLN is the much better asset and putting the 17x gross profit acquisition multiple on runrate 2027 estimates gets us ~$25 stock. Not advice.

More evidence that the implied negative valuation for Specs is far too impunitive. $snap

Don't see on Bloomberg yet but looks like billionaire health care investor Jorey Chernett has taken his stake in $XGN over 10%. Love the name also. Not advice.

$XGN on sale here. $STIM also. IMHO. Not advice - as always.

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

Agree here. The specialty pharma side of the biz will keep growing fast. Hugh margin revenue. $stln team continues to execute and take share.

This seems really positive for $stln as it validates their value prop to payers.

I think $MCD has a better shot of finding a bottom near these levels than $NKE does. People still need to eat. MCD, while not healthy, is still a popular go-to for relatively cheap food (I know its not as cheap as it once was - but its all relative). And MCD still has durable unit growth to point to. Don't think they have brand issues nearly as severe as Nike does. Not advice. Just my 2c.

I don't see an easy turnaround at $nke. Social media has lowered the barriers to entry on athleisure. I get ads all the time from no name upstarts with cool stuff in my Instagram feed. Clearly Nike is losing share in China. Hard to see what turns that around. Most abstract but maybe most important is that the brand no longer resonates as high quality and certainly doesn't seem "cool" at least from what I can tell. 20x on declining EPS. Not sure what turns it.

Security was a breeze at Sofi thanks to $evlv

Recommend Banyan's substack for anyone researching $STLN, the MASSIVE opportunity for the company, and their ideal position within Oncology today. If you want to skip the industry jargon and go straight to the MEAT just read the summary of the CEO quotes from recent conferences. These guys are crushing it, and it will be a much bigger company imho.