Trading ideas and forecasts on stocks. My posts aren't investment advice, do your own DD. 馃搱 Sharing: Stock picks 馃彟 Market trends 馃實 Portfolio updates 馃攧

Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Joined April 2014
Same industry, opposite days. S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq-100 +1.3%, chips +3.6%. But water stocks split: $PNR +12.8%, the S&P's best: sales beat, pool slump ending. Xylem -14.2%: cut its outlook as utilities delay orders. The outlook moves the stock. #StockMarket #Earnings #SP500
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$BA -9.6% today, to ~170, an 18-month low. Its Q3 loss shrank. Orders hit a record $745B. So why? The 737 ramp slips to early 2027, and its 2027 cash outlook ($3B) is about half what Wall Street expected. Orders don't pay bills. Deliveries do. #Boeing #StockMarket #Earnings
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$CLS (Celestica) +10% after the open, to ~272. Why: AI data center demand. Sales +83%, and it sees 2027 sales of $40B (+90%). Clients' 2028 plans are higher still. But it's 43% under its high, below its 50-day average. Good news isn't a fixed chart. #AI #StockMarket #Earnings
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The AI trade woke up today. Nasdaq-100 +1.1%, chips +2.8%, S&P 500 +0.7%. Why: Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI models, filed to go public. $MU +3%, AMD +2.8%, Nvidia +2.4%. One filing won't end the AI debate. Big Tech earnings this week will. #StockMarket #AI #Nasdaq
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Short setup: $COIN (Coinbase) Stocks rose today. Coinbase fell 2.4% to ~160, below its 1-month low, 56% off its high. Why: sales seen -36% y/y, Bitcoin ETFs lost $635M Friday. Trigger: below 163.33 (hit) Wrong if: above 182.93 Earnings: 29 Oct #Stocks #StockMarket #Crypto
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$TSLA +5.9% after the open, to ~394. Why: Barclays upgraded it, target $450 (from $370). The bet: a SpaceX merger, and a battery business nearly sold out for 2027 on AI data center demand. Worst Mag 7 stock this year. Best in October. #Tesla #StockMarket #Investing
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Midterms are 9 days away. History says: S&P 500 one year after each midterm since 1950: up 19 of 19 times. Average +15%. The worst: +1%, a year that included the 1987 crash. Why: the uncertainty clears, whoever wins. Not a guarantee. A tailwind. #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing
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Europe: clocks went back today. The US waits until 1 Nov. So this week Wall Street opens at 14:30 CET (13:30 UK), an hour early. Don't miss Thursday: US GDP + core PCE inflation at 13:30 CET, then $LLY, Mastercard, Caterpillar earnings. #StockMarket #Investing #Earnings
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9 of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose this week. Yet the index fell 0.5%. Why: a few giants. Communication -4.4%, chips -3.2% on AI spending fears. The average stock (equal-weight S&P) rose 1.1%. Profits: +29.5% y/y (FactSet). Weak index, healthy market. #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing
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The Fed decides Wednesday, 6 days before the midterms. Odds of a rate hike: under 10% Wednesday, ~75% in December (Fed funds futures). A hike this close to an election: once since 1990 (2022). So watch what Chair Warsh says, not what he does. #StockMarket #Fed #Investing
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Oil up, Dow down. Brent +3% to ~$117, a 5-month high, on reports of new US-Israel strike plans on Iran. Dow -1.2%, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq-100 flat. Energy $XLE +2.6%, the day's top sector. Next up: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon earnings + the Fed. #StockMarket #Oil #SP500
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Oilfield giant or AI stock? $SLB +6.9% today. Earnings beat, but the spark: its data center business grew 76% in a year. Bonus: Middle East sales rebounded 9% vs last quarter. Old-economy firms with a real AI side business are getting paid. #StockMarket #Energy #AI
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Friday pre-market: this time the Dow cracks. Dow futures -0.9%, S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq-100 -0.3%. Why: oil +1.5% to $115 on reports the US and Israel weigh new Iran strikes. $AXP -2%: earnings beat, but card spending slowed. Oil sets the mood now. #StockMarket #Oil #Dow
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Wall Street split in two today. Nasdaq-100 -2.9%, chips -6.7%: AI spending fears are back. But the Dow closed flat. $PG +5.6% as shoppers bought more, Lockheed +7% on a record backlog, staples +3.3%. Money didn't leave stocks. It changed seats. #StockMarket #Nasdaq #Investing
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Chips -6% on fears the AI boom can't last. Money ran to bonds: the 10-year yield fell to 5.00%, a 1-month low. Lower yields = cheaper mortgages. Homebuilders jumped: $PHM +5.8% despite an earnings miss, Lennar +7.5%. Watch rates, not headlines. #StockMarket #Housing #Investing
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Good AI earnings. Bad reactions. Futures: Nasdaq-100 -1.5%, S&P 500 -0.9%. $LRCX -9%: record margin, but supply snags may delay shipments. Tesla -4%: spending cut. Oil +3% to $112: attacks on Saudi oil sites. Priced for perfect = punished for good. #StockMarket #Nasdaq #AI
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AI fear took a day off. Nasdaq-100 +1.1%, chips +2.0%, S&P 500 +0.6%. Why: $SMCI raised its sales outlook on AI server orders and rose 9.5%. Dell +5.3%. Losers: AT&T -6.4% despite an earnings beat, Netflix -5.3%. One outlook can lift a whole sector. #StockMarket #Nasdaq #AI
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Setup to watch: $WST (West Pharmaceutical) Its stoppers and syringe parts seal most new injectable drugs. Earnings +17%, dividend just raised 18%. New 52-week high today. Trigger: 387.01 (cleared) Wrong if: below 359.92 Earnings: 29 Oct #Stocks #StockMarket #Healthcare
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$META reports tonight after the close. Expected: sales $63.3B (+20%). Options price a ~10% move either way. The swing factor is AI spending. Last quarter it went up and the stock fell 8%. Wildcard: its Muse AI app hit 10M downloads in 40 days. #Meta #Earnings #StockMarket
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Stocks rose today. Big Tech didn't. Small caps +1.8%, Dow +1.0%, S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq-100 -0.1%. Health care hit a record (+2.4%) as oil and yields eased. GM -6.8%: beat on earnings, but its outlook missed. The rally is spreading beyond tech. #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing
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