RIA Using risk-managed macro process to grow &protect assets -27yrs. Granite State wealth manager, GenXpert. Dont hurt people dont take their stuff. NO ADVICE
NH North Country, Not BOS/LA
Joined October 2013
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Iran, Elections, Epstine, Ukraine, The Fed, crypto, AI, the dollar... the market controling narrative can change daily.
Use a process to make decisions and execute. There are no shortcuts, only risk management and moving forward.
NHGen-XEcon, FreeState, Macro investing, Liberty retweeted
Most Americans think the Revolution began with tea in Boston Harbor.
It did not. It began with a search warrant.
In 1761, British officers demanded writs of assistance. Permanent, general warrants that let them search any colonist's home without cause. James Otis called it the worst instrument of arbitrary power ever found in English law. A man's house is his castle, he said. This writ would destroy that.
He lost. And it lit the fuse.
That is why the Fourth Amendment exists. The founders wrote it so no government could ever do this again. Warrants must be specific. Probable cause required. Your home, papers, and effects protected.
Now the government wants a writ of assistance for the internet.
Online child safety laws demand digital ID for everyone. Once it exists, nothing you do online is private. Then AI watches it, CBDCs let them freeze your money, and social credit scores you for obedience.
Same power. Same excuse of safety and order. Same fight.
The founders did not ask permission to protect their privacy. They pledged their lives for it.
Share this thread of history with every person who says privacy does not matter.
Follow me. I sound the alarm daily so we can stop it in time.
Bookmarked to watch later.
When every uncomfortable feeling gets met with a distraction, we miss the chance to understand what’s happening within us. That pattern can start in childhood and follow us into adulthood.
@DrMcFillin and @TracyAThurman explore energy transmutation: noticing the emotional energy we carry, sitting with it, and learning to channel it into a more intentional response.
Watch the full conversation on radicallygenuine.com.
Silly.
Draft Massie to run in the Republican Primary where he has a chance.
A 3rd party?
Tell me you dont understand history with out telling me.
Bret Weinstein announces he is partnering with the Libertarian Party Mises Caucus for a friendly takeover of the party to rebrand it as @ALPNational: “The new home for the America First movement.”
@BretWeinstein calls on supporters of the strategy to sign up, because there are honorable figures on the left and right who will embrace the strategy if the public supports it.
Check out the website in the @ALPNational bio!
Context:
After the 1986 midterm: –33.2%
After the 2010 midterm: –19.4%
After the 2018 midterm: –16.4%
You want to watch your hard earned money drawdown like this?
The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950
That's 19 for 19, with an average gain of about 15%, per JPMorgan Asset Management
Today is Election Day, and JPMorgan mapped out how $SPY could react to each result
Democratic sweep (66% odds) means anywhere from -0.25% to +0.5%
Dem House with a GOP Senate (26% odds) means +0.5% to +1%
Republican sweep (7% odds) means +1% to +1.25%
The bank says a blue wave could hit AI stocks on data center regulation fears, while a red wave could keep the Iran campaign and deficit spending going
The catch this time is valuation. The Shiller CAPE sits at 40.7, the highest ever heading into a midterm and well above the old record of 33.8 in 1998
History favors the bulls, but no streak has ever started from a market this expensive, so tonight's result might matter less than whether AI earnings can justify the price tag
Blue win mostly priced in Re: prediction markets.
COULD A DEMOCRAT MIDTERM WIN CRASH STOCKS?
...a warning about political surprises, crowded trades, and the possibility of a major regulatory and sector rotation in U.S. equities.
📌 100% free read: quoththeraven.substack.com/p…
Markets have largely priced on a blue wave and volatility will spike. If the polls are wrong, makets will spike. Prediction markets are blue, polls are blue. A blue win means gridlock, and impeachment proceedings of multiple administration officials. Watch the Vix.
Poland
France
Albania
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Belgium
India
Serbia
Protests, most violent, erupting around the Globe. Its coming TO THE US. The divisions are at a high point. Violence is only a matter of time.
It seems most of you are willful participants in the creation of an economy where ~10% of households are extremely happy and the other ~90% are miserable.
FWIW, this outcome has NEVER been sustainable in human history. What will likely occur instead is that ~90% of households will hunt the “privileged” ~10% for resource acquisition and, perhaps, sport.
We and luminaries such as @RayDalio (global macro), @HoweGeneration (demography), and Dr. @Peter_Turchin (cliodynamics) continue to warn about the rising probability of the US descending into Paradigm E, a.k.a. “MAJOR Political Realignment and Total War.” If you do not have a PLAN for your family and your wealth, make one.
One call to the plunge protection team, and stocks get bought.
I’m going to make the case for a 3rd time this week that if tech stocks continue to falter here, the Fed will not be hiking rates in December due to the huge, as we know, reliance the US economy and US stock market has on it. Rate hike odds have slipped modestly to 74% from 84% both right before and after Fed Chair Warsh spoke on Wednesday. And if I’m right, I expect the US dollar to weaken as the whole world is long US tech stocks, the lack of another hike would give less reason to own the US dollar, and I’d think REAL interest rates would drop too and thus gold should end its corrective move here, going on since hitting its peak in January.
There is a difference between buying the dip in a risk-off market regime VS risk on. Making money with the former requires luck, but the risk of loss is greater, requiring only the current volatility to continue. Volatility drag is the #1 risk to a portfolio.
H/T @DariusDale42
Hackers use AI to steal crypto amd cover there tracks.
Anthropic IPO coming up.
US law enforcement joined the hunt for hackers who drained more than $6 billion from the Binance crypto exchange in the biggest cyber theft ever recorded. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Its occurred to me, that when people are at a diminished percentage at risk for the country that uses them, war by drone becomes easier and more deadly. An increase in war around the world is inflationary. Own hard assets.
This is why you own multiple assets. Gold, silver, crypto off exchange, equities, real estate- You dont know which one you will need if another becomes compromised.
🚨 PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT JUST HAPPENED!
On October 29, 2026, Binance suffered what could be the largest cryptocurrency hack in history.
Approximately $6.3 BILLION in crypto assets stolen in a massive security breach.
Around $3 BILLION in affected assets frozen.
Binance has pledged to cover customer losses, but the investigation is still ongoing.
Bitcoin dropped, billions in market value were shaken, and fear immediately returned to the crypto markets.
But here’s what I need you to understand.
Mt. Gox 2014.
Bitfinex 2016.
Coincheck 2018.
Binance 2019.
FTX 2022.
Bybit 2025.
Binance 2026.
Different crises. Same lesson.
Bitcoin has historically recovered from major industry disasters and eventually reached new all-time highs. That doesn’t guarantee what happens next.
This is why I constantly preach maintaining liquidity, dollar-cost averaging strategically, avoiding leverage, and NEVER keeping your entire ecosystem exposed to one exchange.
The opportunity is not in blindly buying fear. It’s in being financially prepared when fear creates opportunity.
Protect your capital. Understand the cycles. Control your emotions.
GOD. FAMILY. PROTECTION OF YOUR ECOSYSTEM AT ALL COSTS.
WARRIOR RISE. GYST
With the massive theft in crypto, its a reminder to get your assets off the exchanges. Take control back.
Tea. Earl Gray. Hot.
BREAKING: Patrick Stewart, acting legend of "Star Trek" and "X-Men" fame, dies at 86. apnews.com/article/patrick-s…
NHGen-XEcon, FreeState, Macro investing, Liberty retweeted
The rate hike narrative is driving the gold correction. So, READ THIS from @pboockvar
"Yesterday confirmed again my belief, and sorry to argue again, that we're in a rate tweaking process and not a typical/historical rate hiking cycle. And as I speculated on Monday, the state of the AI trade/buildout is very much front of mind at the Fed as Warsh told us [yesterday] and therefore what the impact is of the higher cost of funding can alone dictate monetary policy from here...
"To those who simply see the current inflation rate, say it's still above 2%, then argue the Fed should hike again, I say back, if we lose the AI tech trade and the ever greater pace of CapEx spend, we lose both the economy and a chunk of the stock market...
"I thus think that if we get more tremors/ruptures in it over the next six weeks, the Fed won't be hiking in December."
In our opinion, that will flatten DXY and light up gold.
This should be made illegal in NH.
