Energy market analyst | Founder of RefineX. Oil, refining, fuels, margins, logistics & geopolitics. Analysis in English and Spanish.
Mexico D.F.
Joined September 2010
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📌 ¿Cómo logra México amortiguar los fuertes movimientos internacionales en los precios de la gasolina y el diésel?
Una parte importante de la respuesta está en el estímulo fiscal al IEPS de combustibles automotrices.
En este trabajo analizo:
⛽ Cómo funciona el estímulo al IEPS
📊 Cómo se calcula y qué variables intervienen
🌎 La relación entre precios internacionales y precios en México
🇲🇽 Su impacto sobre gasolina y diésel
💰 El costo fiscal y las renuncias recaudatorias
Un análisis para entender uno de los principales mecanismos de política fiscal utilizados para amortiguar la volatilidad internacional de los combustibles en México.
📄 Trabajo completo: academia.edu/164973665/AN%C3…
#IEPS #Gasolina #Diésel #México #Energía #Combustibles #SHCP
🛢️ What determines the real cost of crude for a refinery?
It’s not just Brent or WTI. Rising VLCC freight rates, insurance, logistics and refining costs can significantly increase the cost of crude delivered to the refinery.
At the same time, wholesale prices for diesel, gasoline and jet fuel determine whether refiners can recover those costs.
Even if crude prices fall, expensive transportation and operating costs can squeeze margins. Conversely, stronger wholesale fuel prices can support profitability—but only if product revenues rise faster than total costs.
The key question is not how cheap crude is, but how much it costs to deliver and process it relative to the value of the fuels produced.
#CrudeOil #VLCC #FreightRates #Refining #Diesel #CrackSpreads #OilMarkets #EnergyMarkets #OOTT
lnkd.in/p/e-yMu4py
🛢️ Goldman Sachs: crude freight rates surged from ~$3 to over $20/bbl year over year. Hormuz risks and higher shipping costs are widening crude differentials and squeezing refinery margins.
Cheaper crude doesn’t necessarily mean cheaper fuel.
#OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Refining #Diesel #EnergySecurity #FreightRates #OOTT
lnkd.in/p/eYv7J9aB
Shipping a barrel of crude now costs more than $20.
A year ago it was $3.
Goldman Sachs splits the jump into 5 drivers:
-Hormuz war risk premium: $7
-Ship to ship transfers outside the Gulf: $4
-Ship fuel: $4
-Tanker inefficiency and rerouting: $3
-Iran’s fleet sidelined: $2
Fuel alone adds $4 a barrel.
That’s what happens when Singapore marine fuel goes from $428 to $919 a tonne.
Goldman says Gulf producers selling to Asia may have to discount their crude and Asian refiners take the margin hit.
Closer barrels, such as Brent and ESPO, gain.
Someone always pays the freight bill.
Someone else collects it.
Do not miss my latest article
Ship Fuel Doubled In 2026. Who Pays And Who Collects?
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
Brandon Rivera Barrón | Energía & Combustibles retweeted
Vladimir Putin: With regard to diesel, prices on the global market fell immediately by 5–6 percent following the announcement by both sides that supplies would be delivered to the United States.
We are currently preparing shipments – several vessels, tankers. The first tanker, carrying 40,000 tonnes, will depart in two or three days, and the others will follow in succession. The only important thing now is to finalise the financial arrangements so that everything proceeds smoothly.
As for the farmers – I am aware of this, and President Trump even mentioned it during our telephone conversations – we could also supply fertilisers to the American market in large quantities.
#oott en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Brandon Rivera Barrón | Energía & Combustibles retweeted
First Saudi Aramco diesel shipment arrives at Syria’s Baniyas oil terminal
sana.sy/en/economic/2352481/
#OOTT #Syria
🛢️ ULSD prices plunged across the US and Europe on Oct. 21, with declines exceeding 17% in USGC waterborne markets.
Russian supply expectations, weaker transatlantic arbitrage economics and easing supply-risk premiums are reshaping diesel markets.
Is this a temporary correction or a turning point for global diesel balances?
🔗 Read my analysis:
lnkd.in/p/e5Mbvbrc
#Diesel #ULSD #Refining #EnergyMarkets #OOTT
Russia's oil exports via the Arctic Northern Sea Route have already topped last year's by nearly 50%, with 20M barrels shipped to Asia this season, as Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab disruptions choke Gulf flows. #Russia #OilMarkets #Arctic
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi…
Brandon Rivera Barrón | Energía & Combustibles retweeted
Single refining issue at XOM Joliet is fueling a harsh rally in Great Lakes gasoline prices today. Wholesale prices are up 22-25cts/gal and Chicago blends are more expensive than California, New York, and elsewhere. Reminder of zero tolerance on refinery downtime this year.
Brandon Rivera Barrón | Energía & Combustibles retweeted
Locura del huachicol en México: 10,674 casos; 2,539 detenidos; 174,000,000 de litros
Casi tres cuartas partes del faltante se registraron en la comercialización. Informa @RomiinaGandara.
sinembargo.mx/4891151/locura…
أرامكو السعودية تتحدى الاضطرابات
📌 8 شحنات زيت وقود للتحميل من داخل مضيق هرمز في نوفمبر
#أرامكو #السعودية #مضيق_هرمز
🛢️ NYMEX & ICE: Diesel Slides on Inventory Build
📉 ULSD Nov: -$0.1086 to $4.8164/gal
📉 WTI Dec: $97.69/bbl (-$0.13)
📈 Brent Dec: $109.14/bbl (+$0.35)
⛽ RBOB Nov: $3.1188/gal (+0.16¢)
EIA reported a 1.7M-barrel build in U.S. distillate inventories. Stocks remain 9% below the 5-year average, while the U.S. reportedly plans to release up to 315M barrels of heating oil from emergency stockpiles.
⚠️ Diesel futures are falling despite inventories remaining below seasonal norms. Will additional supply ease the market—or will tight fundamentals limit the downside?
#Diesel #ULSD #WTI #Brent #OilMarkets #OOTT
marketwatch.com/story/nymex-… a través de @MarketWatch
