Bright Line Watch

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… Ratings of the performance of U.S. democracy overall are up slightly since last summer, but experts and the public both expect democratic decline in the future, especially if Donald Trump is re-elected. (9/9)

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… Rs are confident that their own votes (79%) and votes in their state (77%) will be counted as intended in 2024. However, just 54% of Rs are confident in the national vote count in 2024. Democrats are much more confident. (8/9)

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… If Trump wins, experts expect him to fire Jack Smith, pardon Jan. 6 insurrectionists, suspend ongoing prosecutions, pardon himself, and open criminal investigations into opponents. Rs overwhelming approve of these actions (6/9)

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… Fewer than half of Americans think the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated (Rs ~80%, Ds ~25%). Experts generally don't agree – but more (40%) think the NY hush money case is. (4/9)

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… 54% of the public trusts the Supreme Court to make impartial decisions in Trump-related cases. Confidence higher among Republicans (69%) than among Democrats (44%). (3/9)

New @BrightLineWatch survey brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… Democrats and Republicans are polarized over disqualification from ballot and over Trump claim to criminal immunity. Overall support for immunity is lower. Experts regard immunity as a serious threat to democracy. (2/9)

New @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-c… Key findings: -Experts view Trump immunity claim as profound threat to democracy, identify second term scenarios threatening democracy as likely. -Public polarized on Trump legal claims and cases Detailed findings in 🧵 (1/9)

Finding 12 from our new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/tempered… Experts saw two recent events as especially important and abnormal - widespread rejection of the 2020 results by 2022 GOP candidates and the embrace of false claims about 2020 by GOP Sec. of State candidates

Finding 11 from our new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/tempered… Experts were overwhelmingly supportive of proposed reforms to American government that do not require amending the Constitution, but perceived them as having relatively low chances of being enacted.

Finding 10 from our new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/tempered… No expert consensus exists on the most pressing problems facing our democracy other than agreement that it faces more pressing threats than “wokeness"/identity politics (ranked first by 4% and last by 70%).

Finding 9 from our new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/tempered… 72% of experts, but only 36% of the public, favor Senate representation by population. Only a bare majority of Ds, 56%, favors the proposal. 83% of Rs and 75% of Is support keeping two senators per state

Finding 8 from our new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/tempered… Large majorities of experts (74%) and of the public (62%) favor fundamental change to the structure of govt. Pluralities favor seeking to do so without changing the constitution.