Independent Canadian security analyst & writer. Substack: https://xitter.cf/t.co/TWJ4RvfFGZ Also published by: @VanguardMag | https://xitter.cf/t.co/4nHz6brCyR | https://xitter.cf/t.co/IixSnKpARp | @navalassn | @DominionReview

Joined December 2022
Incidentally connected to my new Substack piece (link below) that covers the history of Canada's F-35 purchase extensively... the Super Hornet line is moving towards a shut down.
The Super Hornet line is officially winding down! On September 29, the same day Boeing won the F/A-XX contract, the Navy awarded Boeing a roughly $16.7 million contract to support the orderly shutdown of the Super Hornet and Growler production lines in St. Louis. The clock is ticking for the Navy’s do-it-all jet 😞 1/2
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New from me tonight. Canada's first two F-35s were delivered last week. How well do you remember the history that got us here? What should we expect in the future? Have a read, and share your views. open.substack.com/pub/policy…
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It's always fun when I make political posts for the first time in a while, and a bunch of new followers discover my politics lean left. Never been accused of being a foreign agent over it before, though 🤣
Replying to @CDNPolicyHawk
If a security analyst thinks the NDP was good for BC they probably are a bad security analyst and are probably in the pocket of a certain foreign nation
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I genuinely think the BC NDP has done a pretty good job governing the province over the last nine years and that BC would have been better served by re-electing them. But the call was also cynical electioneering, and there's always schadenfreude in seeing that punished.
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I also cancelled my X subscription, for similar reasons. I've also decided not to use Space X for my future space launch needs.
We have cancelled our X subscription for the following main reasons: First and foremost, we cannot contribute to an organization that apparently places the interests of an adversary above those of the United States. Second, despite assurances that a paid subscription would extend reach, it appears we've experienced systematic deboosting over the past few months in favor of the platform's political preferences, conduct that violates its own terms of service.
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The first two Canadian CF-35As have been delivered. The plan has long been for the first ones to remain at Luke AFB in the US where Canada will begin the process towards initial operating capability. But they now belong to Canada.
The RCAF received its first two CF35As yesterday at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. The future of air and space power is built on more than equipment alone.
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Trump official tries to shift the globe to serve his own vanity, and winds up breaking it. Kudos Momus.
EXCLUSIVE: Pete Hegseth wanted Gen. Dwight Eisenhower’s globe for his office. His staff broke it. We have photos.
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It feels weird that I'm far more skeptical of the likelihood that the UK procures 12 new submarines than I am of Canada procuring 12 new submarines... ... But I am.
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It is an issue that a reporter for Global News is getting a response like this. It is also an issue that Global News reported 7 people were killed at Wainwright, and has yet to explain where that figure came from... despite requests... after a similar period of time.
This is what we’re up against trying to report on the CFB Wainwright tragedy. On October 18, I asked Environment Canada for the original wind-warning bulletins for the region, to make sure I hadn’t missed any and because several had since been archived online. I also asked for the timestamped XML files — or directions on how to access them myself. I wasn’t asking about the fire. I wasn’t asking for anything new. I was trying to retrieve historical weather warnings and records, most of which were already publicly available. This was their response. It took them two full working days to send this.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk retweeted
🇨🇦 Here's the complete Air Ambulance / MEDEVAC thread regarding the reaction to the incident at CFB Wainwright on October 17, 2026 ✦ Welcome to the 100+ new followers who found my Twitter account. ✦ TL;DR - It was an 11 hour effort, using 11 aircraft, drawn from 3 provinces.
🇨🇦 Multiple aircraft appear to be inbound to CFB Wainwright in response to "the incident" (apparent explosion/fire). The #RCAF CH-146 Griffon helicopters which may be first to respond are too old to have a modern Mode-S/ADS-B transponder; we won't see them. #CFBWainwright
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Every loss of life is a tragedy. Canada has done so much to help us protect lives in Ukraine, and we extend our heartfelt condolences to Prime Minister @MarkJCarney and all Canadians following the explosion and fire at the military base in Wainwright. Our thoughts are with the families and loved ones of those lost, and we wish a swift recovery to the injured.
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🇨🇦 Policy Hawk retweeted
Dozens of service members were injured in the tragic fire at CFB Wainwright. Four men lost their lives. We will honour them always.
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With this afternoon’s briefing on the situation in Wainwright, it seems we finally have a broad understanding of what happened, though important details remain uncertain. A fire broke out in the training area at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright during exercises involving the 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry (3 PPCLI). The cause has not been established, but training activity has not been ruled out as a possible ignition source. Rumours that oil or gas infrastructure was involved were specifically refuted. Officials also strongly suggested that no explosion occurred beyond those normally associated with the training underway. That training included live-fire exercises using hand grenades and potentially other explosives. High winds spread the fire, and it appears that many of the casualties occurred when personnel were overtaken by the flames. Major-General Rutland indicated that, when the wind shifted, the fire travelled approximately one kilometre in 30 seconds. Four members of 3 PPCLI are confirmed to have been killed. Premier Smith said that 39 other people are currently in hospital in connection with the incident, including 19 in critical condition. A majority of those injured are reportedly from Charlie Company of 3 PPCLI. I have also seen at least one separate report indicating that one of those hospitalized was from another unit.
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*Correction: One of the deceased was from a reserve unit based in Edmonton, not from 3 PPCLI. I missed that statement in the Q&A as I was writing, just caught it now as I was re-listening to the press conference.
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Premier Smith has just indicated that in addition to the four known to be deceased in the incident in Wainwright, 39 individuals are being treated in hospital, 19 of whom are in critical condition. She says no one is unaccounted for, and no additional patients are waiting to be transported. This is the first specific figure offered through official channels.
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I generally agree with this. We can evaluate comms decisions in a week. I do think it would be helpful if the next press release directly addresses whether there is (presumably there isn't) a known broader threat to the public.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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