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🥩 Boxed Beef | A Shift in Year-Over-Year Values Choice cutout values have moved below year-ago levels, currently down $7.37/cwt. The breakdown tells a more interesting story: 🟢 Rib and chuck remain above last year's contribution levels. 🔴 Round and loin account for the largest declines. The weakness in the overall cutout isn't uniform across the carcass. #boxedbeef #cattle

🐂 🇲🇽 Mexican Feeder Cattle | Another Weekly High Mexican feeder cattle crossings reached 10,150 head this week, marking another new weekly high since the border reopened. 📊 Douglas: 5,200 head 📊 Santa Teresa: 4,950 head Daily crossings exceeded 2,000 head Tuesday through Friday, with both ports contributing to the growing flow of feeder cattle into the U.S. #cattle #feeders #imports

The big surprise in today's Cattle on Feed report? Placements. September placements were down 12.1% YoY, compared with expectations for an 8.3% decline. Meanwhile, marketings came in stronger than expected. Fewer cattle going in, more cattle coming out. A supportive combination for future fed cattle supplies. 🐂 #Cattle #Beef #CattleOnFeed

🐂 What a shift in feeder cattle basis! This summer, feeder futures were trading at substantial discounts to the cash index across the curve. Since then, those discounts have narrowed dramatically, with nearby futures now trading near or above cash. The market has gone from pricing substantial discounts to cash to a much tighter relationship. What a difference a few months makes!

📊 Shifting leverage in the cattle market? Packer margins have fallen $80/head in just one week, to +$94/head. Meanwhile: 🐂 Cash cattle: +$2/cwt 🥩 Choice cutout: −$5/cwt 📈 Cash/cutout ratio: 58.6% → 60.8% over the past month Is leverage starting to shift back toward cattle feeders?

Feeder Cattle Index +$1.52 CIH Est: $345.09; Previous: $343.57 3,083 head dropping off (16% of index); 3,528 head traded (18%) For Monday's print, 7.2k head will drop off at $337.80 (37% of the index and lowest prices in the index) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

Choice Cutout -$3.13/cwt DoD to $369.60 All primals except Plate down DoD - largest decline from Loins Bnls Strip Loin down 2.7% WoW but still 2% higher YoY 81% and 73% GB were down 5-7% DoD. 73's now running 24% lower YoY #cutout #beef #cattle

🐂 The U.S. beef cow herd is 4 million head below its 2019 peak. But we don't need all 4 million back. 🥩 In 2019, cattle dressed 813 lbs. Today they're near 900 lbs. 📊 At today's carcass weights, matching 2019 production takes just 28.6M cows — not 31.7M. 🎯 The real gap? ~1 million head. 📩 Want the full breakdown and implications for herd expansion? Reach out to the CIH Cattle Team. ([email protected]) #cattle #expansion #beef

Feeder Cattle Index Projection Note: CME has not posted 10/20 yet, below included both 10/20 and 10/21 trades. Feeder Cattle Index +$1.41 CIH Est: $343.57; Previous: $342.16 6,300 head dropping off (31% of index); 4,876 head traded (25%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

Choice Cutout -$0.71/cwt DoD to $372.73 - now down $3.90 WoW Round and Loins down the most DoD, while Chucks and Ribs holding the cutout flat YoY 50's trim back below $90 - down 40% YoY 73% GB down 20% WoW #cutout #beef #cattle

Feeder Cattle Index +$0.62 CIH Est: $342.78; Previous: $342.16 2,802 head dropping off (13% of index); 1,624 head traded (8%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

Cattle Feeding Economics Improving? 🐂 Live cattle futures have started creeping above projected feeding breakevens for spring 2027. Meanwhile, LRP coverage prices are already above breakevens: • Mar: $240 coverage vs. $231 BE (+$9/cwt) • Apr: $241 coverage vs. $232 BE (+$9/cwt) • May: $242 coverage vs. $233 BE (+$9/cwt) Improving opportunities to protect feeding margins as we move into 2027. #Cattle #LRP #RiskManagement

🐂 Is cash cattle finding its footing? 5 Area cash +$4.10 WoW to $224/cwt, recovering from September lows. At May highs, cash approached 68% of Choice cutout — an unusually strong position for cattle feeders. 🥩 Can choice cutout revisit $390? Can leverage shift back toward cattle feeders? Start of another cash rally or a temporary top?

Feeder Cattle Index -$1.29 CIH Est: $342.16; Previous: $343.45 5,286 head dropping off (24% of index); 4,092 head traded (20%) TX/OK are making up a larger than normal % of the index for October - 42% of the index vs. 37% average SD/NE are making up a smaller than normal % of the index for October - 15% of the index vs. 20% average #ag #cattle #feedercattle

🐂 Heavy cattle, but fading weight gains. 📉 Dressed weights averaged 892 lbs last week — a record for this week, but only +3 lbs YoY. 📊 Over the past 4 weeks: • Weights: +6 lbs YoY • Slaughter: −6% YoY Heavier cattle are providing less of an offset to tighter slaughter supplies. Is the weight cushion finally running out? #cattle #beef #ag

🥩 Daily Boxed Beef Update Choice cutout: $371.71/cwt 📉 DoD −$0.74 | WoW −$4.00 🐂 Chuck drove today's decline, subtracting $1.66/cwt from the cutout. 📈 Five of seven primals contributed positively, led by loin (+$0.42) and plate (+$0.26). Despite today's decline, Choice remains $2.37/cwt above last year due to Chucks and Ribs. #beef #cattle

🐂 Mexican Feeder Cattle | What Could the Next 6 Months Add? With crossings resuming, how much additional feeder supply could Mexico contribute? We modeled three hypothetical scenarios over the next 6 months: 📉 Ramp down to zero: 90k head ➡️ Maintain current pace: 187k head 📈 Return to 2024 pace: 454k head Even the highest scenario represents just 4.4% of historical Oct–Mar feedlot placements. These are illustrative scenarios, NOT forecasts. Actual crossings will depend on border conditions, cattle availability, and trade flows. #imports #feeders #cattle

🐂 Mexico Feeder Cattle Imports | Weekly Recap 7,900 head crossed last week, down 6.5% WoW with the holiday. Despite the shortened holiday week, daily crossings averaged 1,975 head, up 17% WoW. 📈 Tuesday (2,550) and Thursday (2,350) marked the two largest crossing days since reopening. Santa Teresa handled 51% of crossings, up from 24% the prior week. #imports #feeders #cattle

Feeder Cattle Index -$0.09 CIH Est: $343.45; Previous: $343.54 7,085 head dropping off (32% of index); 7,207 head traded (33%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

🐂 Weekly Cattle Slaughter Update US cattle slaughter totaled 553k head, up 18k (+3.4%) WoW but down 13.1k (−2.3%) YoY. 📈 Saturday slaughter jumped to 21k head, up 16k WoW, accounting for most of the weekly increase. Mon–Fri slaughter was up just 2k head WoW. Is Saturday production becoming a bigger factor in weekly slaughter totals? #Cattle #Beef #Slaughter