Tried to reform the electoral system. Didn't. Elections nerd. Romania-phile. ADHD, ASD, arthritis. He/him.
Manchester
Joined March 2009
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Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
There is a case to be made—and I've made it here before—that the Syrian civil war is the most important event of the 21st century. Possible deadliest war, generated a host of other conflicts, produced ISIS and massive European refugee crisis, possibly gave us Brexit and Trump...
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
Yeah the geography screams "disaffected PNL voters looking for a candidate"
teapaw.org/Arnold_Platon/status/1…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
I'm increasingly over on the place where the sky is blue and the posts are free, where I'm cjterry, if you'd like to follow me.
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
in 125,000 simulations of the election, my statistical model foresaw a narrow Harris win with 54.9% probability
however, the model also grouped a number of midwest & sunbelt into a new entity, known as “MEGA ARKANSAS” - an ominous prophecy which i am terrified may come to pass
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
Listen to Tom break down all the elements of Labour's big (ish?) win, what this means for the Tories & Reform + challenges to Starmer from the Left.
Plus: Tricycle Recommends shoutouts to pieces by @MilanV, @CJTerry and this headline: 'Comment dit-on ‘false hope’ en français?'
This quoted post is unavailable.
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
The substack article is well worth a read.
Hey, what if someone had written a substack article about this that many people were calling "informative", "witty", "fun". Oh wait, I did that. It was me.
electionschris.substack.com/…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
This is REALLY GOOD on the new complexities of British elections, by @CJTerry. Copying in @ConUnit_UCL for info.
Hey, what if someone had written a substack article about this that many people were calling "informative", "witty", "fun". Oh wait, I did that. It was me.
electionschris.substack.com/…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
If you want a long and entertaining deep dive into this topic you should read this excellent substack post from Chris Terry
Hey, what if someone had written a substack article about this that many people were calling "informative", "witty", "fun". Oh wait, I did that. It was me.
electionschris.substack.com/…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
This nails a profoundly important point about Labour’s deft interaction with – and partial reshaping of – the party system.
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
This is a good read on party strategy.
I decided to get one of those substack things people have and write about how Labour's victory is a reminder of how party strategy changes in a multi party, volatile environment. There's a bit about the 1977 Dutch election if you like that sort of thing open.substack.com/pub/electi…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
🟠🔴 LibLab Tactical Voting Strategies
Liberal Democrats gained most in seats where Labour won less than 20 points with an average increase of 9.6 points.
They lost 1.4 points in seats where Labour won more than 20% of the vote.
The signature of tactical voting is the almost exponential curve (red line) relating Labour party vote and Liberal Democrat vote.
This signifies that Labour voters in seats where Labour couldn't win lent their votes to the Liberal Democrats.
This is the only party combination that displays this level of tactical voting.
For @JLPartnersPolls
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
Brilliant, delightful and informative piece by @CJTerry: electionschris.substack.com/…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
This is extremely good: thoughtful, wise and witty
I decided to get one of those substack things people have and write about how Labour's victory is a reminder of how party strategy changes in a multi party, volatile environment. There's a bit about the 1977 Dutch election if you like that sort of thing open.substack.com/pub/electi…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
This is outstanding and will now be my go to response to all the “But Corbyn got a higher vote share” and “Labour didn’t win the Tories lost” reply guys - you’re all thinking about this the wrong way. Read Chris. And subscribe to his substack for more wisdom!
I decided to get one of those substack things people have and write about how Labour's victory is a reminder of how party strategy changes in a multi party, volatile environment. There's a bit about the 1977 Dutch election if you like that sort of thing open.substack.com/pub/electi…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
So @cjterry aka The Sweetie wrote something interesting about election strategy open.substack.com/pub/electi…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
I decided to get one of those substack things people have and write about how Labour's victory is a reminder of how party strategy changes in a multi party, volatile environment. There's a bit about the 1977 Dutch election if you like that sort of thing open.substack.com/pub/electi…
Chris Terry-Enescu retweeted
tl;dr : Men more likely to vote Reform; women more likely to vote Labour. BUT (!) much more variation on whether Labour have more support from women and by how much from poll to poll. Women are consistently less likely to support Reform - very few polls don't show this.
🗣️ NEW BLOG: "Traditionally, women in the UK were more likely than men to vote Conservative, whilst men were more likely than women to vote Labour".
👉 But what will happen at the 2024 election?
✖️ @cerifowler and @AnnaKSanders unpick the data.
ukandeu.ac.uk/will-there-be-…
