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If Aaron Rodgers passes Drew Brees next year, he's a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Not close. He's 42. He just passed Peyton today, in Paris. I used to work at Robinhood, so naturally I ran the math on the rest of the list. Brady: 649 Brees: 571 Rodgers: 540 Manning: 539 The record breaker was a 4 yard fade to Darnell Washington in the first NFL game ever played in France. 19 of 30, 212 yards, no picks. Steelers win 16 to 10. (My model had Pittsburgh this morning.) THE MATH Rodgers has 13 TDs through 7 games. About 1.9 per game. Brees is 31 away. At this pace he finishes the year around 559. He'd need one more season and about 13 more TDs. Brady is 109 away. That's roughly three more full seasons. He'd have to play until he's 46. Brady retired at 45. Brady's record is safe. Brees's isn't. And the moment Rodgers passes him, the Peyton debate is over. Tell me why I'm wrong. I post the numbers every week and grade myself every Monday. Follow if you want to see who was right.

I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models for fun and test them in public. Yesterday I spent all day defending Baker Mayfield. Today my model picked against him. Thursday: Chicago. Correct. All 12 Sunday winners are in the reply. THE SUNDAY FILM ROOM: WEEK 7 Three games I'm watching. ★ CAROLINA over TAMPA BAY Both forecasts have Carolina, by almost 5. The last time Baker played, he got sacked 6 times and hit 12 times. Now he's back without his starting right tackle and without Egbuka. I still think Baker isn't the problem. The spreadsheet doesn't care what I think. ★ CLEVELAND over TENNESSEE The two forecasts split on this one. Combined, Cleveland by 0.05 points. Both also have it as the lowest scoring game of the week. That's not a pick. That's a coin with a slight lean. The last time I called a coin flip that leaned Cleveland, the Jets won by 5. I'm doing it again anyway. ★ SAN FRANCISCO over ATLANTA Both forecasts like the Niners. Both were also set before Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel got ruled out. That's two of Purdy's top targets gone in one afternoon. I'm sticking with it, but this is the one most likely to make me look dumb on Monday. These are baseline forecasts, not a full injury rerun. Monday, every call gets graded. The bad ones stay up too. Which of these three falls apart first?

This interception is not Drake Maye’s fault and 100% on Eli Raridon. Maye throws a perfect ball but Raridon doesn’t adjust and block out the receiver. That’s a TD 99/100 times if the tight end adjusts the way he should.

Baker Mayfield got sacked 6 times and hit 12 times against Minnesota. He dislocated his throwing thumb on the final drive. He's back Sunday. His starting right tackle isn't. Baker was never Tampa's problem. Here's why. 1. The offense was broken before he got hurt Tampa went 0 and 3 with him. 2 TDs, 2 picks. Easy to blame the quarterback. But look at the Minnesota game. 2 for 17 on third down. An 85 yard Chris Godwin touchdown wiped out by holding. The hold was on Luke Goedeke. The same right tackle who's out Sunday. 2. He's walking into the same mess First game back from a dislocated throwing thumb. Behind a line that let him get hit 12 times the last time he played. No Goedeke. No Emeka Egbuka either, who's out with a concussion and a foot injury. That's not a comeback. That's a stress test. 3. The backup numbers tell you everything Jalon Daniels deserves credit. He beat Dallas, still Tampa's only win this year. But he threw 3 TDs and 5 picks while Baker was out. The Bucs went 1 and 2 in his starts. Different quarterback. Same problems. My call Tampa's issue is the line, not the quarterback. If they lose Sunday, people will blame Baker. They'll be wrong. Tell me I'm wrong.