NFL & Sports Betting Analytics
Joined October 2023
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Based on an article by @UnabatedSports, I was able to create a simulator for March Madness based a few different rating systems. Below are the results with my projected betting odds to make each round. The model really thinks its between the four 1 seeds for the title.
Josh Allen had his best 4th quarter of his career and one of the best 4th quarter performances since 1999.
The Alexander Isak/Hugo Ekitike storyline is going to be fascinating this summer. Feels like if Isak stays, then Ekitike will head to #Liverpool, but if Isak leaves then Ekitike will go to #Newcastle. Isak is a better finisher than Ekitike, but other than that they are very similar as excellent creators and dribblers. If #Newcastle manage to keep Isak and get Ekitike would be awesome to watch.
With #Juventus signing Jonathan David they are getting a very different player than Vlahovic. David is a much more dynamic ball carrier and attempts better shots than Vlahovic as shown in the shot charts below, but lacks the aerial ability of Vlahovic.
Here's a breakdown of #ManchesterUnited 's for the 2024-25 season. For a team that is nowhere near competing for big trophies their wages are too focused on players in their prime. They've started to clean this up by letting players like Eriksen, Evans, and Lindelof go
A little surprised by these radars. Eze dominates Rodrygo in terms of xG generation. That probably has a lot to do with Eze being more of a focal point of Palace's attack than Rodrygo. Both fail to take valuable shots and successful ball carriers. Rodrygo would be the better more proven signing than Eze, but it would also cost more. Will interesting to see who #Arsenal ends up signing
A look at how Norgard will help replace Partey and Jorginho. Norgard will add a goal threat especially in the air adding to the set piece FC narrative. Norgard is a combative midfielder with strong defensive stats, but lacks some of the carrying ability of the departing midfielders.
#Arsenal have brought in 2 similar combative players this summer which are fully capable of replacing Jorginho and Partey.
If #Chelsea are successful in acquiring Jamie Gittens, they will be getting a raw prospect. He's a better ball carrier than Sancho, but lacks the passing of Sancho. He also does not take very valuable shots shown through his low xG/shot. When comparing him to Garnacho another rumored target, you can see they are similar with Garnacho being more productive in front of goal and Gittens being a better ball carrier.
This is not what I was expecting to see when comparing Havertz vs Sesko. They are surprisingly similar in their profiles. Havertz is the better creator, but Sesko is the better dribbler and physically dominant.
With the focus on bring in #Cunha and #Mbeumo, #ManchesterUnited are moving away from progressive carriers in their wide 10 positions like Diallo and Garnacho more towards progressive passers which should help ease the burden on Fernandes.
With #ManchesterUnited squarely focused on bringing #Mbeumo, wanted to see how his profile compared to Amad's. Mbeumo is more prolific in front of goal, but when removing penalties their numbers are pretty similar. Mbeumo tends to take higher value shots to Diallo. Diallo has the superior defensive attributes which bodes well for him playing wingback. He is a superior ball-carrier to Mbeumo which could help drive United forward from deeper positions. If they are able to complete this signing United should have a very exciting and threatening right side this year.
With #ManchesterUnited failing to acquire Liam Delap early in the summer and shifting their focus to #Ekitike wanted to compare their profiles. Ekitike is a much more prolific player granted he did play on a much better team. Both are progressive carriers, but Ekitike is much more of a playmaker. Delap was the budget signing while Ekitike is the superior player that will cost much more.
As @FabrizioRomano tweeted Nico Williams is now headed to #Barcelona, #BayernMunich have shifted their attention to Leao. Offensively Leao is a more physical and productive player with higher xG and xA. Both are dynamic dribblers, but defensively there is a clear difference with Williams besting Leao in ball recoveries, tackles, and interceptions.
Updated simulations with survivor recommendations. Texas Tech, Bama, and Tennessee are all top plays for survivor this round.
Pretty interesting to see the discrepancy between what @GrindingMocks has for 1st lineman drafted and what the betting markets show. Will Campbell now has a higher expected draft position than Membou, but the betting markets have Campbell +205 to be drafted 1st.
