Ex hedge fund analyst. Mostly small-caps. Mostly consumer discretionary. Mostly value. Other thoughts at times. Always opinions. Never investment advice.
Joined August 2021
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$WHR - no position. Stock basically straight down for 2.5 months. Surge in rates hasn't helped. Steel tariffs haven't helped. Brazil election probably doesn't help. Call me an interested observer as it gets closer and closer to a binary bet.
$WHR - just listened to conf call. Given the company's recent history, take this with a grain of salt, but certainly possible the bottom is in and margins expand from here. No debt maturities until 2028.
$BHR - Even the Company's proposed board slate is missing a certain someone. Monty NOT 4 Life!!
braemar.q4ir.com/investor/ne…
$RH. Lol. $110 to $140 in a week.
$DECK guides $7.28-$7.43 ex-tariff refund and has $9/share in cash at seasonal working capital peak. Sub $80? OK.
So housing starts and pending home sales were both pathetic. But the 10 year is pushing back toward 5% today. Will housing related catch a bid again?
$AHT - Just hope people don't let him get that easy 9.8% at $2.50 when he should be paying at least 20x that based on NAV.
$CPS - let's give it a big haircut and call it $320M of EBITDA and $875M of net debt at end of '27. 4x EV/EBITDA is $22, 5x is $39, 6x is $56. Market is now assuming a dire scenario for a company that's both gaining share and growing content $ per vehicle.
$CPS - Call it $400M of EBITDA and $800M of net debt at end of '27 based on the 2x leverage comment from JPM conference. Round up to 18.5m shares. A 3x EV/EBITDA multiple is $43, 4x $65, etc. The stock is only $26. It's 2027 in 4 months.
$AHT - this is the last time I did math on this. Since then, they've sold a bunch of hotels and paid down debt with excess proceeds. Let's just say, this thing is will a hell of a lot more than $2.50.
$AHT - there was $368M of preferred stock at 9/30/25. So $1B of NAV less $368M = $632M of "Common NAV" divided by 6.5 million shares = $97/share. Stock is $4ish. What's Monty gonna steal this thing for?
$AHT - as predicted
$AHT - keep in mind. Monty couldn't BK this thing and risk losing the management contract. So instead, the management company will start buying stock and "eventually" make a play for the whole thing.
$AHT - and there's the end game after the $BHR fiasco. Ashford buying $AHT stock in the open market to the tune of 2.5% per quarter. The most dislocated stock in the entire market, now has a chance to work.
ashfordhospitalitytrust.q4ir…
$AHT - and there's the end game after the $BHR fiasco. Ashford buying $AHT stock in the open market to the tune of 2.5% per quarter. The most dislocated stock in the entire market, now has a chance to work.
ashfordhospitalitytrust.q4ir…
$CRMT in Bloomberg again. Nothing unexpected - as asset sales (basically non-securitized A/R) expected either in or out of BK, while the securitization trusts remain untouched. They hope to continue operating. TBD.
$WING - hope others saw my post and did well. Sadly, I had alligator arms and missed most of this 30% move off the bottom.
Maybe time to try $WING again? EV/franchise unit (not counting company owned) is ~$1.2M with domestic AUVs at $1.9M. Just bought back 13 units for $32M ($2.5M/unit). And there's still growth. And I'm sure EVERYONE hates it. So bad it's good?
$GENK - it's real and it's spectacular
prnewswire.com/news-releases…
With the big move down in the 10 year yield, will be curious if this sector catches a bid today - even if short lived, will provide decent insight into how the algos work.
