Investing, books and other musings. https://teapaw.org/t.co/AAZf5gi69E • Portfolio: @portfolioRoc
Joined December 2019
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Introducing the improved ROC site! returnoncap.com
Fixed my atrocious interface and centralized everything for those not on the mailing lists.
Sample articles: returnoncap.com/index.php/sa…
Company profiles: returnoncap.com/index.php/co…
Bookshelf: returnoncap.com/index.php/bo…
Another newsletter for ya! Moved my monthly book list to Substack. Much easier than maintaining an email list given how big its gotten. If you're unfamiliar, here I simply go through the books I read each month. Feel free to sign up if you'd like.
skbooklist.substack.com/p/co…
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Here's a link to last month's list. This isn't meant to help you in your professional or personal lives or anything. I just like to read random books on things like the history of salt or general relativity or neurology. All in good fun!
us19.admin.mailchimp.com/cam…
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I think it’s being able to quantify tail risks. Generally, the good companies we study will continue to do well in the status quo unless some tail risk manifests itself. Think EVs, COVID, AI, etc. So, lots of thinking required on how the industry/world/company will change.
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Company is Severstal PJSC, a mining company. I have no view on the company - just interesting to see how the economics are very different than we’d expect for a mining co.
It’s also a Russian company so do with that info what you will...
Just for fun, try to guess the industry. I guarantee you won't get it...
If you'd like, does it look like a good company? What would you be willing to pay for it?
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Just for fun, try to guess the industry. I guarantee you won't get it...
If you'd like, does it look like a good company? What would you be willing to pay for it?
Can someone walk me through the $FB math?
Trades at ~$240 net cash and made $11.50/sh pre-tax in 2020, for a 21x multiple. Expected to grow 10-15% going forward. And then you have an element of under-earning / potential optionality from other bets. Is that about right?
10-bagger since this thread.
I’m not too familiar with the business but it looks like a “facilitator” which is generally a good biz w/ network effects and all that jazz. Low teens P/E at the time w/ huge option value.
And a micro cap at the time... Fish where the fish are!
Anyone here ever Looked at Silvergate Bank $SI? 🔍
It's classified under "Regional Banks" and is under 300 Mln in market cap. Micro-cap so to say.
2 Billion in deposits but just 2 Branches.
Interesting? 🤔
Let's take a look🧵:
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The second half of this paragraph looks like it was written in 2020. Author points out a very important caveat -- when cheap funding is available, all bets are off...
(I keep sharing stuff from this book - its just so good)
Article makes decent points but $DIS multiple cannot be compared to $NFLX due to (1) structural differences in growth profiles and (2) severely depressed earnings.
I do agree that there is too much focus on streaming numbers.
wsj.com/articles/disney-is-p…
Played MW this weekend and I can see why $ATVI is doing so well. Compared to my teenage days playing CoD 4 and MW2, the attention to detail and simply augmenting the best parts of those games is unmatched. Also the ecosystem play w/ Warzone/Cold War is genius!
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In a world where so much info is at the tip of our fingers, what's important isn't *how* you read but *what* you choose to read.
That being said, I spent my whole weekend learning about leafcutter ant societies, so take that advice with a grain of salt!
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"It is not a mistake to have strong views. The mistake is to have nothing else."
Read this today, and it was really impactful.
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This is an interesting take: stock goes up -> raise capital -> reinvest in business -> create more value. Many $TSLA bears missed this.
Is this what people mean when they say "reflexivity"? IDK how to build this into an investment process, though...
Trim position if I have a better place to deploy capital. Hold for momentum play and possible acceleration of business if they can do an equity raise to speed growth and improve market positioning.
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Serious question:
Based on your analysis, stock has a 15% expected 5yr return. Stock goes up 100% over the next 6 months, effectively front loading this return. Nothing has changed with your outlook of the company. What do you do?
Comment with reasoning if you’d like.
34%Hold
45%Sell
4%Buy more (???)
16%Show results
402 votes • Final results