Reinier M 🐎

Just caught up with the Pumpkin Pie Stakes at Belmont. I didn't do anything with the race. Nice place payoff of $11.72 on Icona Mama if you had it. It looks like Senza Parole had 78% of the place pool, which caused the generous place payouts when she missed the exacta.

Let's see what's going on next weekend...the Desi Arnaz and the Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar. Maybe those will be interesting.

Does Ted Noffey even run again after today after missing the board in the Dwyer Stakes? Now we see why they skipped the Perryville at Keeneland. I had the wrong horse, but it's almost always a bad bet to take these star horses at low odds off the long layoff.

Answered Prayers made a nice run for second at 7-1 in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont. Similar to Sea Strike, just way too far back early on. We've seen her settle in behind the leaders in previous races. I'm not sure why Bodacious Bay didn't fire.

If Bodacious Bay repeats her Cotillion effort in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont it might be over. But Intrepids Fantasy looks fast on figures even if her races were at Delaware. She might get in the mix. I've also had a high opinion of Answered Prayers, the Olympiad sibling

I wasn't a fan of Sea Strike coming from last in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont. I think he's got enough speed to be around midpack in a one mile race. It is what it is. No one was going to beat Stimulate today.

That was a different Stimulate in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont than we saw in the Bourbon Flight at Churchill Downs. Great training job by Bill Mott. He crushed Sea Strike. Ted Noffey nowhere to be found.

Track is sloppy at Belmont, but the forecast doesn't call for any rain this afternoon. Maybe it will dry up somewhat by the Dwyer Stakes. If it's still wet, it would help Intrepids Fantasy in the Mother Goose.

It's not often the Breeders' Cup Distaff contains the Kentucky Derby and Whitney winners. Winning Colors ran great after some losses in the fall of 1988. It just wasn't good enough against Personal Ensign. youtube.com/watch?v=lSpBui9U…

So where does Baffert go with Hughes and Salahudin on the Kentucky Derby trail? Where would you like to see them? Salahudin would benefit from the Fair Grounds series because of the longer distances of their prep races. I'm guessing Hughes will stay home in California.

I still think I'll put something on Sea Strike tomorrow in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont. Assuming he runs his usual race, he's going to run something around 100 or 101 on BRIS. If Ted Noffey can run a 100+ BRIS Speed Rating off the long layoff, I won't doubt him again.

What's an under-the-radar 2-year-old that could make noise on the Derby Trail? One might be Hullabaloo Ray Ray. I liked what I saw in his maiden win. It's just a matter of whether he can handle the stretchout against stakes competition.

It always smells like horse barn in the Santa Anita Mall parking lot.

I wonder if Ted Noffey or Sea Strike will be favored in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont. I'm expecting Sea Strike to be a slight favorite because he has the more recent starts, one of them a blowout win, and Chad Brown tends to take money. Ted Noffey will take a good chunk though.

Senza Parole looks too good in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes at Belmont, probably at 4/5 odds though. It has taken her a long time to start running some fast races in 2026, and she finally did with 3 straight BRIS Speed Ratings at 100 or better in her more recent starts.

Hughes is the best 2-year-old to me right now until proven otherwise. I know it can change quickly once the Derby Trail heats up more in February, but for now he's on top of my Derby Trail list. Pedigree-wise, there's no reason he can't go longer. We'll see.

It's a not a big deal to me, but Sovereignty deserves Horse of the Year. Winning the Breeders' Cup Classic + the Whitney Stakes was enough. He beat the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, JCGC, Dubai World Cup, and Stephen Foster winners, and Nitrogen. It's impressive enough.