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I love fintwit. Posting daily macro charts and stocks, please excuse typos, on mobile most of the time. Current open positions: $QQQ shares, $NBIS Calls

Joined August 2026
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With $NBIS reporting Thursday, November 12, and so much fear and volatility across AI infrastructure, we’ve made our latest Nebius 2027 report free to read in full, including the valuation and every price target our Premium members received in October. We think the market is underestimating how much business Nebius can deliver next year. In our October 26 report, we forecast $21.86B of 2027 revenue against the $12.24B Street estimate we reviewed, a gap of 78.5%. Our EBITDA forecast is $12.49B against $6.53B, or 91.3% higher. Most of that difference comes from the amount of capacity we expect to earn revenue during 2027. We worked through the sites, hardware deliveries, customer commitments and commissioning schedules quarter by quarter. At our expected fleet yield, the Street revenue estimate would require roughly 513 average billable MW. Our model reaches about 938 MW. Our targets for December 31, 2027: Bear: $340.31 Base: $471.44 Bull: $628.75 Probability-weighted: $479.29 We weight those cases 30%, 40% and 30%. Even our Bear case produces $19.07B of revenue, more than 50% above the Street estimate in the report. Our disagreement with consensus runs through the operating forecast, well before we put a valuation multiple on the business. The build accelerates sharply toward the end of 2027. Our Base case closes the year with 1,613 MW of accepted IT capacity, but much of it earns revenue for only part of the year. Pennsylvania and Independence arrive late in our schedule. We expect a much larger business by December, while recognizing that a delayed commissioning date would remove months of revenue from the forecast. We also follow who is paying for that capacity and on what terms. Longer contracts bring customer advances that help fund construction and equipment. Shorter contracts give Nebius more exposure to the prices customers are willing to pay for scarce compute. We expect that mix to support strong growth, with the financing burden increasing if prices weaken or customers contribute less cash upfront. Our Base case includes $58.77B of cash capex and $12.46B of new equity during 2027. Those new shares are already included in our targets. We remain bullish after allowing for that financing because we expect the additional capacity to support far more revenue and earnings than the Street estimates in our report. Thursday’s disclosures will help us judge whether the sites, contracts and financing are progressing as we expect. After earnings, we’ll refresh the data and publish separate Premium models for each individual year: 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030. Members will be able to follow how the expansion develops year by year, including the revenue, funding needs and dilution along the way. Our members received this research first, and their support allows us to open selected reports to the wider community. We hope this one gives people something useful to work through ahead of Thursday. The full report is linked in the first reply. Thanks again for supporting independent research.
🤖 Made with AI
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JUST IN: Momentum is building behind the bipartisan permitting reform bill ahead of Monday’s Senate vote, with Democrats reportedly making progress in negotiations, clean-energy groups endorsing the revised legislation, and conservative Rep. Chip Roy urging Congress to pass permitting reform before January 3. The developments could provide a positive catalyst for data center, power infrastructure and renewable energy stocks that have faced selling pressure following the Democratic sweep in the midterms. The revised bill would accelerate federal permitting and transmission construction, require new qualifying data centers to cover their incremental electricity and grid costs rather than passing them on to consumers, establish financial guarantees for operators, and expand oversight of data center electricity and water consumption. It also includes four nuclear provisions addressing licensing, uranium enrichment, NRC staffing and DOE transparency. The most significant development may be the emergence of broader political support for energy infrastructure development, including solar and wind projects that previously faced Republican opposition. Faster permitting and transmission expansion could benefit renewable developers, grid equipment suppliers, utilities and data center operators, although new cost-sharing requirements could pressure data center economics. Nuclear developers could also benefit from regulatory reforms. The bill potentially offers a policy catalyst for several recently pressured sectors, but Monday’s 60-vote threshold remains the immediate hurdle.
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Bipartisan Senate Bill Could Fast-Track AI Data Center Construction; Vote Possible as Early as Next Week
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We are hearing from internal sources that a bipartisan Senate bill could fast-track AI data center expansion and the power infrastructure behind it. The bottleneck for AI was never chips alone. It's permits, interconnection and power. If this passes, watch grid equipment, independent power producers and data center developers first. We are not Fox News or CNN but we trust our plug. Fintwit got this wrong (again) as we suggested a few days ago.
Fintwit is getting this all wrong again.
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While Nebius is crashing in the public markets, ClickHouse is at an ATH in private markets. Hiive has ClickHouse at a $56B implied valuation. $NBIS
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If Nebius still retains a 25% stake of clickhouse, does this mean they own $14 billion worth ? Therefore saying that $NBIS is only worth $18 billion at the current market cap?
While Nebius is crashing in the public markets, ClickHouse is at an ATH in private markets. Hiive has ClickHouse at a $56B implied valuation. $NBIS
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*BIPARTISAN SENATE BILL COULD FAST-TRACK AI DATA CENTER EXPANSION AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE, POTENTIALLY EASING MAJOR DEVELOPMENT BOTTLENECKS; VOTE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK — THE VERGE 🇺🇸🇺🇸
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*COREWEAVE ASKS TEXAS GOVERNOR-ELECT FOR DATA CENTER COOPERATION $CRWV
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$NBIS $CRWV $BRUN $IREN $CIFR $APLD $MU $SNDK $SKHY Nomura post mid-term election note: Some pertinent points: 1. With an increase in Democrats' power in the political scene, there will be a slow down in the speed of AI data centres being built but not a complete halt. 2. Because of this delay, it will put upward pressure on cloud GPU rental prices. This would be beneficial for neoclouds and is actually a tailwind for the sector. 3. Even with this delay, Nomura believes that the markets are overpricing fears in the memory sector, and that long-term agreements are in place to mitigate any risks of oversupply in the next 2 yeas.
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Can you imagine what $NBIS earnings will look like? Freedom Capital Markets on $IREN earnings: IREN's shares rebounded 15% after hours on November 5 after the company posted its 1QF27 results and confirmed the anticipated acceleration in its business.
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$NBIS Cantor Fitzgerald following $IREN EARNINGS: The demand environment, however, got stronger. Backlog rose 22% to $20.3bn (two-thirds investment-grade between MSFT and NVDA [OW] contracts). Contracted pricing on new deals is up 11% on three-year and 12% on five-year terms.
$NBIS Cantor Fitzgerald following $IREN EARNINGS: The irony of mid-terms is that the sell-off is based on fewer data centers getting built which, in our mind, increases demand for existing capacity, of which IREN is well-positioned. $NBIS $IREN BROS GET IN HERE
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$NBIS Cantor Fitzgerald following $IREN EARNINGS: The irony of mid-terms is that the sell-off is based on fewer data centers getting built which, in our mind, increases demand for existing capacity, of which IREN is well-positioned. $NBIS $IREN BROS GET IN HERE
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$NBIS Citizens: We believe states that want data centers built on conditions, such as Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Alabama, are likely destinations. This helps neoclouds with GPUs on energized sites, like (CRWV, MO, $180 PT), (NBIS, MO, $270 PT), and (IREN, MO, $80 PT)
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$NBIS Baird: Looking at our coverage, the highest exposure to possible construction delays/ moratoriums is with ORCL, CRWV. Less exposed are NBIS, DOCN.
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$NBIS Rosenblatt Securities: Blue Wave a Relative Non-Event for Nebius !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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$nbis Expect a close between 155 and 165 prior to earning next week. That's right, 30%+ in a week. But you do you. NFA
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DROPPING $NBIS RESEARCH SOON.... TURN NOTIFICATIONS ON
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$NBIS so far 12% bounce from our target zone shared on Oct 14th 🤝 As price develops I'll share more updates. The bottom can be in but I can't be 100% sure yet.
Nebius Group - ( $NBIS ) I will look to add into Nebius once it drops closer to support. Inflation will rule as the main market's narrative until we complete the corrections started in June I believe. Beloved stocks like these being the primed ones to have sharper drops.
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If after $IREN earnings pumped 13% just imagine how much will $NBIS go after earnings. I don’t own enough $NBIS.
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