Florian Chevallier

I was frustrated trying to compare GLP-1s... Every comparison looks only at weight loss, but the real question is what you pay in side effects to get there.... So I made an GLP1 index and quickly vibe coded a website. So how it works: I took each drug’s main Phase 3 trial, averaged the rates of nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation, and added the share of people who quit because of side effects. That gives a side effect burden. Then I divided weight loss by that burden. One number per drug, higher is better. No surprise here. Tirzepatide is at the top with 8.8, and Foundayo (orforglipron) is at the bottom with 3.4.... Full ranking and data: glp1compare.io/glp1-drug-ind… $VKTX, $NVO

Since $NVO is getting closer to launching CagriSema, I added the drug to the index. No real surprises here: the results aren't particularly impressive. Tirzepatide remains at the top for now, waiting VK2735 this summer. $VKTX peptideanalysis.ai/glp1-perf…

A lot of money will be made in the coming weeks with the VIX hovering around 30. A sharp market rebound is just around the corner.

$NVDA trades at a forward P/E below 13x, while $AAPL commands a multiple above 35x. Let that sink in...

Judging by how the market is pricing AI stocks, we’re heading back to the Stone Age under the Democrats. That's the market's verdict. $AAOI $IREN

It's naive to think regulation and rules alone can contain AI. AI will simply move on prem, directly into companies, once token prices become too high. Every available electron will eventually be put to work… This is the way. $AAOI

Nimble data center operators with established compute capacity like $IREN will be the primary beneficiaries if building new facilities becomes increasingly difficult. Rental pricing will inevitably rise as supply tightens. This market really has room temperature IQ...

Not trying to ruin the mood for $NVO holders, but Viking just started Phase 3 for its oral VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP pill. Novo already lost share once to a superior dual agonist when tirzepatide arrived for shots. The same drama would likely replay in pills, with oral Wegovy as the mono GLP-1 left behind. $VKTX

Looks like regime change happened after all, just not in Iran…

TRUMP SAYS BLAMED GOP LOSSES ON HIM NOT BEING ON BALLOT: NYT Seriously? He must live in the matrix, that’s not possible.

$ALAB annualized Q/Q growth of 196%. A blockbuster quarter.

Wow, just took a look at the comments, the annual shareholder meeting is going to be quite something for these two… I feel the one who really destroys shareholder value is more $LITE CEO to be fair.

As a $VKTX investor, my question is how VK2735 will compete against Reta. Right now Reta feels more like a drug for gym rats. It’s quite popular among men, but luckily GLP 1s are used much more by women (two thirds of users), and with a much better profile, Viking has a real chance here. I feel Reta is good at low dose, but glucagon is the weakest leg relative to what’s needed for a strong effect. It contributes relatively little at low exposure and only becomes meaningful as the dose rises and receptor occupancy climbs. In practice, the glucagon effects (higher energy expenditure, more liver fat burning, a bit more heart rate increase) show up much more clearly at 9 and 12 mg, and one can suspect that tolerability degrades so fast because of the glucagon component. My opinion is that Reta increases heart rate. Glucagon is known to raise it, and the Phase 2 is pretty clear on that. Why not the Phase 3? Because it reports heart rate at week 80, long after the early peak, when the body has had time to adapt. On top of that, patients lose about 6 points more of their body weight than on tirzepatide, and lower weight obviously means a lower resting heart rate.

Yes, it's right there, trading in the basement.... $VKTX

I hope the market will be able to make the difference between $LITE, not anymore a real pure optic player but more a Marvell proxy now, and other optics names like $AAOI ... Because seeing the last weeks, I’m not totally convinced on how efficient the market is lately, to say the least....

$LITE : the shareholder vote on the Marvell merger looks likely around March. that's my best guess. For example, it took nearly four months for Core Scientific shareholders to reject the merger with CoreWeave. Lumentum now trades as a proxy for Marvell, since Lumentum holders would own only about 32% of the combined company. Marvell is richly valued after a great run so upside is limited and, contrary to what its CEO seems to believe, is not the leader in its field...The margins say more than any speech. I expect the deal to be rejected but it's hard to say at the moment.

Americans must be really unhappy with the current administration when you consider that Democrats are now within reach of Senate seats in both Texas and Kansas, states that haven’t elected a Democratic senator in decades. But looking at the past two years of tariffs, trade chaos and war, it’s not exactly surprising…. $SPY $QQQ

The Iranians were never going to make peace before the elections. This is all about making Trump and the Republicans pay the political price and re-establishing deterrence. They will obviously have every incentive to reach a peace agreement afterwards. There is no reason for them to want this deadlock to drag on indefinitely. Oil prices will fall, inflation will come down, the Fed will cut rates, and equity valuations will rerate higher. This is the base case scenario. $SPY

At the current valuation, honestly, I think even not so great Phase 3 results leading to a FDA approval could be enough to generate a significant return on investment since we will be pharma number 3 for both shots and pills. Expectations are literally in the basement at this valuation… $VKTX