TA Hobbyist 📈 #Crypto Investor since 2016. Founder & CEO 👨🏻💻 Tweets Not Financial Advice ✌️
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An idea 💡
The extended 5th-wave thesis for The extended 5th-wave thesis for $BTC is still alive.
The structure from September 2024 has not been invalidated, and the correction from the December 2024 high can still be counted as an expanded-flat A-B-C correction.
What interests me most is the duration.
If the C-wave low is now in, this correction lasted roughly 259 days, very similar to the 2019–20 mid-cycle correction.
And that raises the real question:
What if we are not starting a new cycle here at all?
What if the last 259 days were simply a mid-cycle correction within the existing bull cycle?
Because if that is the case, then this isn't the beginning of a fresh multi-year move.
We could instead be entering sub-wave 3 of the extended macro 5th wave.
And that is where things could get violent.
There is another piece that fits this thesis:
We never really had a proper broad 'altseason' during the 2023/24 cycle. Bitcoin Dominance still stayed sky high.
We have seen individual narratives and some meme coins run hard, but not the kind of market-wide speculative mania you would normally associate with the final stages of a crypto cycle. $ETH never truly broke to impressive ATH's.
So perhaps the cycle simply hasn't finished.
Perhaps the last 259 days were the reset.
And now we get:
Mid-cycle correction → BTC expansion → liquidity rotation → altseason → final blow-off.
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$FLR steep negative price action, yet bullish RSI divergences over the last few months looks familiar to how it has set up before previous reversal & major breakouts.
Price needs to break the 20MA with conviction to confirm, but it's looking good.
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The Bitcoin Bear market seems to be coming to an end, marked with a strong break above the 20 Week Moving Average & a confirmed bullish divergence on the weekly time frame.
If accurate, it's been shorter than the last bear market by around 2-3 months & less brutal than years before with a 55% draw down from the previous ATH's compared to 77% in 2022.
No doubt alts and memes have been absolutely crushed however, with many 95-99% down from ATH's 😅
Are you still holding? Have you been buying?
If you weren't stacking quietly during the bear market whilst many coins were extremely oversold, it could be a good time to begin to buy again over the coming weeks & months as we retrace & settle, before a new bull run begins.
The price and RSI looks cooked on lower time frames, so a retrace is on the cards.
The best we can now hope for is something similar to Jan to March 2023, where we range up here for some months, building a new base until the next leg up.
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After another crypto winter, it might be time to start whipping some crypto charts out again 👀
Bitcoin bottom looks in, and then the fun can begin
Did you buy in the bear market? If so what did you grab?
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We have spent almost as much time now as in the 2022 bear market for $ETH in a downtrend.
Weekly MACD is about to turn green.
RSI very oversold and the downtrend broken.
We are building a base, and I think we will be rallying again soon.
$ETH $PEPE $WOLF $ANDY $BTC
$ETH
My gut instinct back in November was right with the market as we saw a nice B wave bounce recently, but now we seem to be completing or have already completed the C wave of this correction, which started in August 2025.
The 'bear market' is coming to an end.
$PEPE $WOLF $ANDY
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I’ll say it how I see it. Honest. No filter.
90% of the Crypto Twitter (CT) are retarted apes with less than half a brain.
$OTHERSBTC - absolute bottom
$TOTAL3ES - bottom
$OTHERS.D - bottom of the bottoms
$ETHBTC - bottom
$OTHERS - freaking bottom
RSIs on all of them - BOTTOM
Fear and greed index - 5
$BTC.D - TOP
$USDT.D - ceiling
$USBCOI - 52+
And one camp of the retards is saying “bear market is starting, $BTC to $40k”, and the other camp “ALTs are going to zero”
You’d be better of at McDonald’s packing burgers and serving fries, or even better, go climb trees.
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The monthly candle for $XRP just flipped green and is currently looking like a dragonfly doji, which is a bullish reversal candle.
On the monthly time frame, this weighs quite heavily for the macro.
2 weeks to go, but if February can close like this, it's looking really positive IMO
$FLR $HBAR $BTC
$XRP pumping and other major alts are pushing TOTAL3ESBTC (Total excluding Bitcoin & Ethereum) towards the price breakout trendline.
Altcoins showing real strength here
$BTC $ETH $HBAR $FLR
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$OTHERS / $BTC continues it's journey. Q2 - Q3 2026 should be fireworks 🔥
"A relief rally, followed by another dip, before setting up to break the price trend line is to come.
This follows the B wave bounce & the C wave dip for ETH before we ramp up for that monster wave 3 Q2-Q3 2026."
$PEPE $WOLF $HBAR $FLR $CRV
This chart ( $OTHERS / $BTC ) clearly shows a delayed by definition 'alt-season' throughout this entire Bitcoin cycle.
Bitcoin has dominated since January 2022.
However, after years, the monthly MACD is finally showing signs of potential macro reversal and momentum building for the altcoins outside of the top 10.
I don't think this blasts straight up right away (whilst we could always be surprised by the market), but more so this is showing the change of momentum & trend direction is very close.
A relief rally, followed by another dip, before setting up to break the price trend line is to come.
RSI looks like it's breaking the downtrend, but we have some room to attack and break the price downtrend.
This follows the B wave bounce & the C wave dip for ETH before we ramp up for that monster wave 3 Q2-Q3 2026.
Many memes & low cap alts are 70-98% down from ATH's, so it makes sense to me that the start of this next cycle, or 'super cycle' - whatever you want to call it, is looking to be when we have our delayed aggressive alt-coin outperformance after all.
The macro economic environment likely favours this theory too, with QT ending in December and another rate cut now looks more likely with boosted odds.
Bitcoin has led for 4 years. Soon, the altcoins will take over again
$FLR $PEPE $WOLF $CRV $ANDY $HBAR
$PEPE forming a bottom here
An idea for both $ETH & $PEPE
From an Elliot Wave perspective on $ETH, we could be in a drawn out wave 2 correction here which lasts until March / April '26.
The calls for bear market are here, but the if that is the case, then most alts and memes, such as $PEPE have been in a bear market for a year already -82% down from the highs, since the November / December 2024, and many alts have actually been correcting since March 2024. So a bottom is likely not too far away from here.
Good news would be now we could see a market wide bounce for some relief into the New Year, which would be the B wave for ETH, before a nasty final C wave taking it to somewhere between $2.1k and $2.7k, which would of course take alts and memes, and the sentiment with it.
Patience would be key however as recovery would be close, and that would be the opportunity to buy bottoms for maximum gains in the months to come.
$WOLF $ANDY $CRV $BRETT
$ETH
My gut instinct back in November was right with the market as we saw a nice B wave bounce recently, but now we seem to be completing or have already completed the C wave of this correction, which started in August 2025.
The 'bear market' is coming to an end.
$PEPE $WOLF $ANDY
My thoughts on the market direction right now are embedded in this Elliot wave chart for $ETH.
Since being in the crypto markets since 2016, this has been an incredibly challenging cycle to navigate and predict.
Overall it has been a highly Bitcoin dominant cycle, which has thrown off many who have rotated into altcoins and held onto their bags waiting for altcoin dominance to take over to begin selling.
It has been very different to previous cycles and many Bitcoin pairing charts ( $OTHERS & #TOTAL3 / $BTC ) are showing that right now.
We are now at a point where Bitcoin is showing potential signs of having topped, and yet we have not had a rotational dominance to Ethereum and all the mid to low cap altcoins like we have had in previous cycles.
At the same time we have not had a true Bitcoin expansion or blow off top, as shown by the lack of Bollinger Band expansion on the monthly time frame.
Technically, as $BTC.D is still sky high we haven't had a typical alt season, and $ETH / $BTC crumbled before it even had time to begin.
But, it's not like there was NO opportunity in altcoins.
We saw an explosive meme season like never before. Many memes did 10-50x in the summer of 2024 when the rest of the market was correcting and it felt like the only opportunity was in memes. More recently $BNB rocketed to new highs and we also saw new tokens like $SUI earlier in the cycle & $ASTER later in the cycle come in and print multiples. As well as dino coins which woke up all of a sudden like $ZCASH do the same thing.
So where next? And are we in a bear market?
Well the sentiment very much reminds me of entering the bear of 2022, but at this point many altcoin charts outside of Bitcoin are certainly in a different position, with most altcoins already 80-95% down from ATH's already. Many look like they are bottoming, bottomed or dead already.
In my opinion not every cycle needs to be the same, as that's how the winners and losers happen, which makes the market. There needs to be twists and turns and the unexpected. And maybe this cycle we simply have a lagged true 'altcoin' season which is now delayed until mid - later 2026 / early 2027.
As this $ETH chart shows, this looks like a prolonged coiled up set up towards $20k in the long term, which is just taking it's sweet time to play out. This cycle we had wave 1 of $ETH
It's bullish in the long term, with wave 3 & 5 to come, but medium term bearish at this point as wave 2 needs to play out whilst Bitcoin looks slightly exhausted and now the bears are seemingly taking over.
In the very near term, we lost key weekly & monthly support levels and are now correcting, and there is no denying that. We are absolutely due a relief bounce, but for $ETH, I don't think we go much higher than $3.7k, if we can get there.
Bottoming structures will take some time to play out, and whilst I think $ETH is about to get a nice B wave bounce, I think we still see a deeper C wave overall to complete the wave 2 correction to the 0.786 around $2.1k.
Could we go lower than that? Yes, we could end up capitulation should the market want to puke, all the way to $1.5k. So long as we stay above $1.38k where the impulsive wave began then the bullish Elliott wave structure drawn here stays in tact.
The fact is, zooming out, we are overall playing part of a bullish structure still, where our wave 2 is now in a cyclic timing of that which will feel like a 'bear market', and it will feel like that.
Poor sentiment with chop, few pumps and plenty dumps. It will drag out, be painful, feel like forever, but at some point next year, begin to recover.
Even the subwave 1 & 2 of the wave 3 will feel like a bear market as we print a higher low and we should see a change of direction as we start the next rally which will feel like 'disbelief' as it begins, before it turns back into hope & optimism as wave 3 begins.
Patience is always key with crypto, and there will be plenty of opportunity as we reach lower levels.
$PEPE $WOLF $CRV $ANDY $XRP $FLR
$OTHERS / $BTC still has work to do to break the trend, but on the monthly time frame is still showing signs of a move of epic proportions for 2026/27.
$FLR $HBAR $CRV $PEPE $WOLF
( $OTHERS / $BTC ) It's early in the month, but we are showing a bullish cross on the monthly MACD for shitcoins vs Bitcoin
$DOGE up 11%, but $PEPE is up even more 25%!
Memes are not dead!
$WOLF $ANDY
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