Моћна нирдала је у нераскидивим суштинским контекстима савремених збивања
Joined December 2018
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Petar Blagojević retweeted
Student List convincingly won yesterday's parliamentary elections in Serbia. A few day before elections they published their manifesto, which also sets out its main foreign policy objectives and defines the country’s national interests. The key points are:
SL confirms that it will continue to advocate military neutrality (proclaimed in 2007, before the Serbian Progressive Party came to power).
On Kosovo (and Metohija), the SL maintains that the territory is an integral part of Serbia and will oppose both Kosovo’s independence and its membership of international organisations.
The Students’ List approaches the European Union from the standpoint that it is Serbia’s most important economic partner. It advocates deepening and expanding the strategic partnerships with EU member states. The programme does not explicitly state that Serbia intends to join the European Union, nor does it elaborate further on the EU enlargement process.
What does the programme say on sanctions against Russia, relations with Republika Srpska, status of Serbs in Montenegro and Croatia, on Israel and Palestine?
Short summary of this section of manifesto is available here (via Foreign Policy Forum website):
fpf.hr/analysis/serbias-fore…
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Germany’s power grid has suffered a second, major physical attack
⚡️Saboteurs in North Rhine-Westphalia knocked 4,200 MW of RWE baseload capacity offline, sending intraday power prices surging to €4,500/MWh.
Here is what happened and why it matters
🧵🇩🇪👇
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.
Petar Blagojević retweeted
In 2022 a team of Czech and Montenegrin anthropologists published the most comprehensive height survey ever conducted in the Western Balkans. They measured 47,158 people across Bosnia, Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, and Kosovo.
The result overturned an assumption that had stood for fifty years. The tallest 18-year-olds in the world are not Dutch.
They are from Montenegro. The average 18-year-old male in Montenegro is 182.9 cm. In Dalmatia, 183.7 cm. There is a continuous belt running from the Adriatic coast through Herzegovina into central Montenegro where average male height exceeds 184 cm. In some towns it is over 187 cm.
This is the highest mean stature ever documented in any human population.
The strange part is that the Balkans are not rich. GDP per capita in Montenegro is roughly a fifth of the Netherlands. Protein intake is well below Western European levels. By every conventional metric, the Western Balkans should be producing average heights similar to Bulgaria or Romania.
Instead they are producing the tallest men on earth.
The explanation is genetic. Y-chromosome haplogroup I-M170, present in over 70% of men in Herzegovina, correlates with male height across all 55 European and Near Eastern populations the researchers tested. Wherever the haplogroup is common, the men are tall.
The haplogroup is descended from the Gravettian culture of the Upper Palaeolithic. The Gravettians were big-game hunters. They specialised, for roughly 15,000 years, in killing mammoth, bison, reindeer, and aurochs across Europe. They ate, in caloric terms, almost exclusively animal products. The most meat-heavy diet documented in the European archaeological record. Hundreds of generations of selection pressure for converting animal protein into skeletal stature.
When the megafauna disappeared, most Gravettian populations dispersed and intermarried with incoming farmers from the Near East, who carried different haplogroups associated with shorter stature. The Western Balkans, isolated by the Dinaric Alps, retained an unusually high proportion of the original hunter genetics.
The men of Herzegovina are the genetic descendants of mammoth hunters who spent the Ice Age eating fat and meat in quantities no modern population approaches.
They are still tall, on a sub-optimal modern diet, because the genes were selected for height by 15,000 years of animal-based eating.
If their nutrition reaches Northern European levels, the prediction is that average male height in central Herzegovina will reach 190 cm within two generations. Six foot three. As an average.
The Dutch built their height in 150 years on dairy.
The men of the Dinaric Alps built theirs over 15,000 years on mammoth.
And the variable, in both cases, was the animal.
Petar Blagojević retweeted
March 24, 1999: A date that lives in infamy.
27 years ago, NATO launched an illegal, 78-day aggression against Serbia, violating international law without any UNSC mandate. The bombing deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, and led to the massacre of many innocent civilians and children.
Today, history is tragically repeating itself through the unlawful and criminal aggression of the US and Israel against Iran. From Belgrade to Tehran, the same pattern of bullying and disregard for international law and human life is visible.
But Serbia and Iran have firmly stood as unwavering symbols of resilience and defiance in the face of unlawful external pressure. Our two nations, bound by a shared history and a profound sense of dignity, will remain powerful, united, and continue to stand strong.
#NATO #Serbia #Yugoslavia #UNSC #InternationalLaw #Iran #Resilience #NoToWar
Petar Blagojević retweeted
A small factory in China is producing civilian products requested by a client. The client was in such a hurry that they paid the full amount upfront.
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Service members: If you agree Trump’s war on Iran is wrong, you don’t have to participate. We can help you explore your options. Call 1-800-379-2679
Petar Blagojević retweeted
QatarEnergy declares Force Majeure
Further to the announcement by QatarEnergy to stop production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products, QatarEnergy has declared Force Majeure to its affected buyers.
QatarEnergy values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information.
#QatarEnergy #Qatar
Petar Blagojević retweeted
The Americans constantly say that they’ve sent a warship toward Iran. Of course, a warship is a dangerous piece of military hardware. However, more dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send that warship to the bottom of the sea.
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Some awesome Putin-Bush stuff here by @NSArchive: nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b…
Petar Blagojević retweeted
The threat to German auto producers isn't from Chinese cars flooding Germany. It's from Chinese cars flooding to emerging markets (red), where they're killing the market for German cars. That's not something EU tariffs on China are going to be able to fix.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Listen carefully to George Yeo, former foreign minister of Singapore.
He displays a far deeper understanding of European history and its conflicts than most Western politicians ever have.
It’s rare to see a high-ranking official speak with this level of depth, clarity, and insight in an interview.
This is a must-read interview of George Yeo, one of the wisest statesmen in Asia (he was cabinet minister in Singapore during 21 years, including Minister for Foreign Affairs during 7 years).
His take on the US's change of strategy: "[Trump] recognises that the US cannot dominate the world the way it used to in the past. The US hasn’t got the financial power or the manufacturing capability. So it has to retreat some and consolidate around its own core and concentrate on healing itself. [...] Trump recognises the reality of a multipolar world. The US is primus inter pares in such a world. By moving closer to all other poles, as Kissinger recommended, it will remain influential for a long time."
He also says that "sooner or later, the number of US military bases around the world will be reduced." And "as Pax Americana recedes, regional equilibriums will be affected."
All in all he says "the US is in decline now" which "is something to worry about" and "no one knows" if it can recover.
On Taiwan he says "I don’t see Taiwanese dying for an independent Taiwan" and that "there is growing realisation [in Taiwan] that the road to independence is a dead end." He thinks that "Taiwan is separate only because the US is there" and that "whether or not there is trouble over Taiwan depends on the US" because "China’s overwhelming preference is peaceful reunification."
He urges the Taiwanese to negotiate reunification sooner rather than later: "negotiating earlier with Beijing is better than negotiating later, which was [Singapore’s first prime minister] Lee Kuan Yew’s point many years ago. Taiwan can enjoy more autonomy by negotiating now rather than waiting another 10 years."
On the current Japan-China row he said this might be due either "to Sanae Takaichi’s newness to her position as prime minister... she might not have realised the gravity of her remarks" or she did it deliberately "in order to provoke a strong reaction from China and use that to win popularity and justify higher defence spending."
In either case, he thinks it was "not wise for Takaichi" to do so because "the Chinese will now reopen the Ryukyu issue – not officially, but through social media and other unofficial channels. Ryukyu as part of Japan was never part of the deal among the victorious powers at the end of the second world war. There was only agreement for Japan to retain the four main islands." He believes that "raising Ryukyu as an issue will deter Japanese politicians from being adventurous on Taiwan."
There you go. His discourse definitely departs from the typical orthodoxies you hear around these questions. But when you're a small state that has survived and thrived for 60 years by reading power dynamics correctly, you tend to develop a clear-eyed view of how the world actually works.
Link to the whole interview which is very much worth reading in full: scmp.com/news/china/diplomac…
Petar Blagojević retweeted
My new population map of Serbia makes one thing obvious: the north is a dense human network, while the mountains in the south thin the map into scattered lights. Belgrade is the brightest gravity well, but the real story is the web of towns stitched along rivers and roads.
Where do you see the sharpest divide, and what do you think causes it?
#GIS #Mapping #Cartography #DataViz #Serbia #Population #Demography #Urbanization #Balkans #RStats #milosmakesmaps
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Financial Times has published the entire Russo-American 28-point peace plan proposal:
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive & comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine & Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It’s expected that Russia won’t invade neighbouring countries & NATO won’t expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia & NATO, mediated by the USA, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. US guarantee:
The US will receive compensation for the guarantee.
If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.
If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory & all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.
If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership & will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
a. The creation of an Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres & artificial intelligence.
b. The USA will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas.
d. Infrastructure development.
e. Extraction of minerals & natural resources.
f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe & Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
2nd part of the plan can be found in the comments below
Petar Blagojević retweeted
Understanding Why China Abstained on the UN Security Council’s Gaza Resolution 🧵
Petar Blagojević retweeted
In a normal world, this should be an immense scandal in Europe.
Le Monde has a long article (lemonde.fr/international/art…) describing the hellish life of Nicolas Guillou, a French judge at the ICC in The Hague, due to U.S. sanctions punishing him for authorizing arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant for war crimes in Gaza.
Guillou's daily existence has been transformed into a Kafkaesque nightmare. He cannot: open or maintain accounts with Google, Amazon, Apple, or any US company; make hotel reservations (Expedia canceled his booking in France hours after he made it); conduct online commerce, since he can't know if the packaging is American; use any major credit card (Visa, Mastercard, Amex are all American); access normal banking services, even with non-American banks, as banks worldwide close sanctioned accounts; conduct virtually any financial transaction.
He describes it as being "economically banned across most of the planet," including in his own country, France, and where he works, the Netherlands.
That's the real shocking aspect of this: the Americans are:
- punishing a European citizen
- for doing his job in Europe
- applying laws Europe officially supports
- at an institution based in Europe
- that Europe helped create and fund
and Europe is not only doing essentially nothing to protect him, they're actively enforcing America's sanctions against their own citizen - European banks closing his accounts, European companies refusing him service, European institutions standing by while Washington destroys a European judge's life on European soil.
Again, in a normal world, European leaders and citizens should be absolutely outraged about this. But we've so normalized the hollowing out of European sovereignty that the sight of a European citizen being economically executed on European soil for upholding European law is treated, at best, as an unfortunate technical complication in transatlantic relations.
Petar Blagojević retweeted
After years of cumulative effort, the Alshaa League on the western edge of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region treated its 100 millionth mu (6.67 million hectares) of desertified land earlier this month.
The milestone comes on the back of the sustained hard work of many across China's northern reaches to hold back the spread of the desert. #GreenChina #ChinaData
chinadaily.com.cn/a/202510/2…
