Swing trader focused on downside setups. Natural contrarian. Helping clients hedge and capitalize on market corrections.
The Czech Republic
Joined September 2019
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Time for New Year predictions! Happy 2026 everyone.
Q1: Exhausting slow rise in S&P 500, will feel like "there are 9 sellers for every 10 buyers".
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Q2: Correction starts either at the start of Q2 or end of Q1. The correction will be different from 2025's correction in these regards:
- this time, it won't last just few weeks, it will last months to play out
- it will consist at least two 10% down moves
- it will not be 20% like in 2025, it will be not even close to 20%, it will be "only" around 15%
Cryptos will crash hard in Q2, in the Spring. Something is likely to break (CEX, Saylor...) Could even bottom out.
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Q3: Continuation of the correction for stocks, cryptos sideways. Boring period, even if we have Summer rally. Equities bottom around 6300 for S&P 500.
Cryptos will retest the bottom at the end of Q3 or start of Q4. They may also marginally undercut the Q2 bottom to form a definitive bottom.
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Q4: At the start everyone will be bearish. People will be saying: "There is time before we pump". Markets will surge in Q4. Will feel parabolic. Cryptos will make up for a lot of the losses they incure in Q2 and Q3. Stocks back above 7k.
youtu.be/lDxW07mHplo
I have changed the equation by which the fair value is calculated.
Instead of the "classic" equation "10^(A*LN(marketcap)-B)" I now use "10^(A*(-1/LN(marketcap))-B)"
It's a log saturation curve that bends the right side of the curve more.
Now, the fair value stands at 4.2T. Also shows we did reach roughly 160% overvaluation the last cycle.
I believe with this equation it's likely we hit the fair value this cycle as well.
@MarcDeMesel I will be updating this sheet from now on monthly basis as I believe it can help us to get out of crypto in the right time.
For the very moment I compare the current situation in crypto to 2023, where we went sideways for many months and were dropping in valuation vs fair value (which still goes up over time).
If we see below 55% vs fair value on my chart in the upcoming months, I believe we are ready for lift off!
I've decided to cross check the results of log regression chart @MarcDeMesel uses for total crypto market cap.
I did it by updating Marc's own old Google sheets. Today I fed it with 5 years of data, as Marc stopped updating it in 2021, I used the best and most accurate I found from CoinGecko.
I recalculated the fair value the way Marc used to do it pre 2022.
The results are very similar - crypto market cap is 60% undervalued today, with fair value standing at 6.93T.
When looking at greater picture of undervaluation/overvaluation, it's clear that the last cycle we failed to go into overvaluation.
And that with narrative of huge ETFs coming, mr President trading and promoting crypto, building national reserves even.
Very disappointing returns, for sure. Even more concerning is the outlook for current cycle. I see two potentially bigger crypto narratives, both of them might not be "ready" any time soon:
$BTC flipping USD as world reserve currency - nowhere near ready, as USD is firmly a king. It will likely take new crisis, bigger than Covid, to hyperinflate fiat to destroy itself. Until then, world reserve status remains unchanged.
$ETH $SOL $NEAR $AVAX and many others - tokenizing whole World on them, stocks, bonds and most of all aggressive adoption of stablecoins: this might not happen this decade as well. In order for stablecoins to be demanded aggressively more, I believe we need to see dramatic fall in trust vs fiat, which again, happens likely after the next crisis.
There is another narrative, autonomous AI agents using crypto, but based on the articles floating recently, they might not be using crypto as much as expected, at all.
Bottom line, if crypto some of the narratives written above don't arrive soon, I believe crypto might not even reach fair value as calculated by log regression this cycle.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
I've decided to cross check the results of log regression chart @MarcDeMesel uses for total crypto market cap.
I did it by updating Marc's own old Google sheets. Today I fed it with 5 years of data, as Marc stopped updating it in 2021, I used the best and most accurate I found from CoinGecko.
I recalculated the fair value the way Marc used to do it pre 2022.
The results are very similar - crypto market cap is 60% undervalued today, with fair value standing at 6.93T.
When looking at greater picture of undervaluation/overvaluation, it's clear that the last cycle we failed to go into overvaluation.
And that with narrative of huge ETFs coming, mr President trading and promoting crypto, building national reserves even.
Very disappointing returns, for sure. Even more concerning is the outlook for current cycle. I see two potentially bigger crypto narratives, both of them might not be "ready" any time soon:
$BTC flipping USD as world reserve currency - nowhere near ready, as USD is firmly a king. It will likely take new crisis, bigger than Covid, to hyperinflate fiat to destroy itself. Until then, world reserve status remains unchanged.
$ETH $SOL $NEAR $AVAX and many others - tokenizing whole World on them, stocks, bonds and most of all aggressive adoption of stablecoins: this might not happen this decade as well. In order for stablecoins to be demanded aggressively more, I believe we need to see dramatic fall in trust vs fiat, which again, happens likely after the next crisis.
There is another narrative, autonomous AI agents using crypto, but based on the articles floating recently, they might not be using crypto as much as expected, at all.
Bottom line, if crypto some of the narratives written above don't arrive soon, I believe crypto might not even reach fair value as calculated by log regression this cycle.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Also have to give credit to @JurajKarpis for his thesis of upcoming aggressive stablecoin adoption.
Very inspiring.
What is the most likely outcome from the midterm elections?
Democrats are 69% likely to take over house and the senate, per Polymarket.
Historically, this combination is the most bullish for the markets AFTER the midterms. The peak historically occurs 6-9months counting from the midterms (Q2 2027).
There is a 75% chance that next Wednesday FOMC meeting will see a market pivot.
Measured on data of the past 12 months.
If we continue bearish up to Wednesday, we will likely rally nicely out of the FOMC event.
$SPY
If we get public S1 filing tomorrow (or early next week) and market emotionally pumping into it, that is the signal I am waiting for to derisk my portfolio.
First of all I will double down on some shorts like $MAGS
🚨 Anthropic could make its IPO filing public as soon as Friday, according to three people familiar with the plans.
The listing could top SpaceX’s June debut as the biggest IPO ever, making it a big test of how much investors still want AI.
Read more: yhoo.it/4dQLXso
For all those people saying that $BTC bottom is not yet in due to 0.786 fib retrace not being hit, look at BTC/SPX chart. @CRInvestor
That one looks like it bottomed out already. It suggests crypto had the weak bear market in 2026 due to stocks having unusually strong mid term year.
Still, historic weakness for #crypto in November of midterm year.
Studying @ChentoTrades 's work. Quite fascinating, to be fair.
One question though, why does he speak about $BTC in regards with tokenization?
How can BTC be a major player in stablecoin adoption and real world assets tokenization?
Wall Street wants tokenization. The problem is Washington is moving slower.
Tokenization related stocks slipped after the SEC delayed a long awaited decision on its proposed “innovation exemption” for tokenized securities.
This is not a rejection of the idea, it is a delay. But timing matters.
The entire crypto narrative around Wall Street moving assets onchain depends on regulatory clarity. The infrastructure is being built, the institutions are interested, and the market is waiting for the rules to catch up.
When the regulator hits pause, the stocks react. The bigger picture is still intact.
Tokenization is coming. The question is how quickly Wall Street gets the green light to scale it. $BTC
This is a good point, indeed.
I am holding this, considering adding, @Greshamslaw7 u still bullish for SOFI?
I am initiating short on $MAGS
I've been monitoring it since May.
Briefly shorted it around July with a small loss of around 0.25% of total. I decided to reshort once I see MACD divergence on weekly.
Now in effect.
PT 60.
Lower targets possible at a big crash of S&P, which I don't see coming any time soon.
Who remembers the meme clowns yelling "buy memecoins" at the top of 2024 meme season?
Will that top be overtaken this cycle?
I don't think so. Still, from the current levels meme coins offer very good RR.
youtu.be/9cESMNUDBxo
FOMC next week.
Strong chance for a swing.
If we pump this week, good chance for a sharp decline early November.
If we continue dumping this week into the next one, good chance for a low to be in and rally early November.
I have updated my analyst table here.
Red squares highlighting who flipped bullish at the top of 87k.
Still the most pain is UP, however, even longer sideways/consolidation is likely.
Ideally, we need to see those @benjamincowen kind of guys waver again.
"Crypto is going nowhere for months"
"Crypto is going nowhere for months"
Nothing changes on my call. Also sticking to the previous ones from the past month or two. Once we revisit bull market support band, it's an excellent buy opportunity, if you are sidelined.
We will likely have much time, still, as I call for crypto to become boring again.
I know, there are many good sound arguments why 1.5 T for #TOTAL and 48k for $BTC should have been the bottom.
That is the exact wall of worry we need for the whole bull run.
youtu.be/-U9k-DFUEvQ
7.9k-8k still on the track still this month.
The slight drops we had over the past days into the bad news of inflation data were supposed to shake us from our positions.
Sadly I see it the same way.
Not a day goes by without me seeing an ad for a broker and for trading.
Know where the real bubble is? Trading the markets. When I started trading in the early 90's people would ask me what I did for a job. When I told them they would say "is that a real job?" now everyone is a trader. I think the next couple years will be about culling that heard.
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