X Space: The Bitcoin Pharaoh x @ColeMacro, Thursday 22 October, 11am ET. xitter.cf/i/spaces/1aKbdEgWQbQJX… Strive is the best-engineered bitcoin treasury company of this cycle. Give Matt Cole all the preferred demand he wants, and on my numbers the stock only modestly beats bitcoin from here. Beating it by a lot needs the market to keep paying well over 1.35x what the common actually owns, bitcoin and cash after the preferred, which is where my math says the multiple settles. Matt read my 12,000-word piece on Strive, Darling of the Bear, quicker than most people get to the subtitles, and offered to discuss it live, with no question off limits, Party A included. He'll get to tell us where he thinks I got it wrong, and my plan is to make HARDtalk look like a walk in the park, armed with nothing more dangerous than his filings, a calculator and my natural wit. SATA and SATS holders will be about a fifth of a cent per share richer by the time we're done, which is more than I can promise anyone else listening. Topics, ranked by how likely they are to end our friendship before it's begun: • SATS, sold at $90 two days after Strive bound itself never to sell SATA below $100. The first 7 million shares cost 17.3% a year for life, and the buyers got the call • Who buys 13% SATA with Strategy coming in hot with daily payouts on its preferreds? And was SATS a direct response to that? • If more preferred always looks better on paper, why stop at 70%? At 100%, a 15% dip in bitcoin leaves the common holding nothing but hope • In mid-September the market paid about 2.3x what the common owns; today it pays about 1.7x, which is what the shares would be worth if bitcoin compounded at 50% a year indefinitely, the rate Strive uses as its base case through 2030. My math says it settles near 1.35x in the long run, and while euphoria can push it well above that temporarily, what counts is how much of the spike he turns into BTC per share before the music stops • Your questions, for the last 20 minutes, by which point we may need a third man in the ring I'd recommend reading the Brief before Thursday, since we'll go straight into its ideas: thepharaohbrief.substack.com… Disclosure: I hold no current position in $ASST, $SATA or $SATS, which Matt has about 75 minutes to change.