Collectnft.wallet

Software developers are in the front wave of labor disruption from AI. We are seeing incredible improvements in developer productivity with AI tools but still running into daily challenges incorporating ai smoothly in everything we do. We simultaneously are able to get more done faster than ever before and yet have more to do in the backlog than ever before. Maybe the ai models will continue to get better at work automation and 100% of all work will be automated. But so far this isn't what we are seeing in software. It's really spiky across the org. So I guess the jury is still out. Let's see where we are in 12 months. Everything is moving so fast.

The majority of the benefits of ai will accrue to workers and consumers. Why? Competition and timing. A fast takeoff scenario where one or two big companies “own the ai tech” would result in mass unemployment and strong pricing power for the companies with the AI. And this is the doomer scenario a lot of people have been afraid of the past couple years. But it’s now been 3 years since the release of ChatGPT. The frontier is more competitive than ever, there are hundreds (thousands) more ai companies with competitive pricing and low pricing power, and we are witnessing a diffusion of ai tech while maintaining a strong economy. It’s looking more like a slow takeoff future where it takes time to integrate the ai into society. And where there’s lots of companies competing to provide ai tools and integrate them into their companies. Not just one winner. Ultimately this is great for consumers bc lots of companies will be competing for their business, lowering prices, and offering better products. It’s also good for workers because ai is being used across a bunch of companies. So the ai spend is spread out and these companies will still compete for workers. And it’s likely the number of jobs created to enhance and integrate ai will outweigh displacement for a long time. If no one company “owns ai” competition will work to bring prices down for consumers. And if the takeoff is slow, then companies will work to incorporate productivity improving ai over the next decades and we’ll see a normal economic innovation cycle, maybe closer to what we saw in the 1990s. Here’s hoping 🤞