EU Democracy Reform Observatory

🧵 A few reactions on the EU elections results: 1. The EU election - being 27 parallel elections - failed to provide 1 clear message, thus failing on its raison d'être: to elicit EU voters’ political preference for the Union (not their countries, as it caricaturally happened in France) 2. Contrary to most storylines, these EU elections DIDN’T give the EU away to the far-right (albeit these parties gets a record-high number of seats). 3. Pro-EU majority holds, but weakened: if it had 405 out of 720, now it will have approx. 401 out of 705. Given the 361 majority, this appears a comfortable majority but definitely not enough to secure von der Leyen’s 2nd term. 4. The French snap elections set to affect post-EU elections, notably the: - formation of parliamentary groups (Le Pen/Bardella focusing on France not the EU) and - top appointments (EPP not RENEW calling the shots) 5. EU turn out appears stable matching the record-high of 2024 despite the 27 national electoral votes, limited campaigning and Qatargate 6. Major surge of unaffiliated MEPs (e.g. Fidesz, M5S, etc.) who may play a role in reshuffling existing groups and shape new political cycle. 7. Overall, EU politics appears not only more fragmented, but also less intelligible than ever before. 8. The post-elections period will be uniquely convoluted and driven by both endogenous (e.g. French elections, Dutch gov't formation, etc) and exogenous (e.g. Ukraine, US presidential elections, etc). More tomorrow! #Européennes2024 #EuropeanElections2024 #elezionieuropee📷📷 #EuropeanElections #Europawahl2024📷 #EP2024