Swing Trader. Market Cycles. I don't give financial advice. All I share on X is educational content.
Joined May 2020
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$BTC
The rule says that when a bullish breaker block fails to produce a reversal and price slices right through it, forming a new FVG and leaving the BB hidden beneath three FVGs, it flips roles and becomes a bearish BB.
So, if we get a bounce toward the $71K–$72K zone, that area is expected to act as strong resistance
$BTC liquidity + cycles
Some of you have asked me how to combine cycle analysis with liquidity analysis using breaker blocks. Well, we're witnessing a great example in real time.
Today is Day 29 of BTC's current daily cycle, right in the timing window for a half-cycle low (HCL). And BTC just plunged hard. So, timing-wise, check.
Now switch to the 3D timeframe and look back at April 10. You'll notice a beautiful breaker block hidden beneath two FVGs formed around May 31 and August 20.
A double-hidden BB is a powerful potential reversal zone. And when cycle theory tells you an HCL is due around the same time, the confluence between these two frameworks gives you a higher confidence setup with potentially better R/R.
But always wait for confirmation. BBs can fail, and stop loss hunts sometimes happen before the real reversal begins. Risk management is key.
Scaling in is a good alternative. For example, you could wait for a confirmed 4H cycle low within the key zone, enter with a partial position, and add the rest once the broader reversal is confirmed. Another alternative is to place your stop loss beyond the entire FVG, but that's only advisable when the FVG isn't too wide. That's not the case here.
That's how I combine cycle analysis with liquidity analysis: timing tells me when to look, liquidity tells me where and price action tells me when to pull the trigger.
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ConvexEdge retweeted
It's striking how many people are calling the $BTC bottom right now.
You don't even need to share the cycle framework to question it - just look at the morphology of the monthly candles at every previous bottom. 2015, 2019, 2022: in each one, the floor formed after two or three small-bodied candles. Volatility had to stall first, compress, build a base. The low came from exhaustion, not from a violent drop.
What's closing today is the opposite: a massive red monthly candle, momentum pointing hard down.
Historically, bottoms don't print straight off that kind of move - they print after the selling burns out and the range tightens. It's visible on the chart at a glance.
And the fact that so many are calling the bottom is itself a reason to doubt it. Real bottoms form in despair, when nobody wants it - not when the timeline is busy buying the dip. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying the structure and the sentiment both argue the base hasn't been built yet. That's why you wait for it to form, not call it on a single candle.
A bull market is the inhale.
Breathing in takes effort. Your diaphragm has to work to pull air into your lungs, just as a rally needs buyers to keep showing up. And once your lungs are full, you can hold your breath for quite a while.
A bear market is the exhale.
At rest, breathing out takes no effort. You simply stop pulling air in, and it flows out naturally. Similarly, once buyers step aside, prices can fall under their own weight.
Try holding your breath with empty lungs and see how long you last.
Since 1928, the average S&P 500 bull market has lasted about 2.7 years, compared with just 9.6 months for the average bear market.
$BTC liquidity + cycles
Some of you have asked me how to combine cycle analysis with liquidity analysis using breaker blocks. Well, we're witnessing a great example in real time.
Today is Day 29 of BTC's current daily cycle, right in the timing window for a half-cycle low (HCL). And BTC just plunged hard. So, timing-wise, check.
Now switch to the 3D timeframe and look back at April 10. You'll notice a beautiful breaker block hidden beneath two FVGs formed around May 31 and August 20.
A double-hidden BB is a powerful potential reversal zone. And when cycle theory tells you an HCL is due around the same time, the confluence between these two frameworks gives you a higher confidence setup with potentially better R/R.
But always wait for confirmation. BBs can fail, and stop loss hunts sometimes happen before the real reversal begins. Risk management is key.
Scaling in is a good alternative. For example, you could wait for a confirmed 4H cycle low within the key zone, enter with a partial position, and add the rest once the broader reversal is confirmed. Another alternative is to place your stop loss beyond the entire FVG, but that's only advisable when the FVG isn't too wide. That's not the case here.
That's how I combine cycle analysis with liquidity analysis: timing tells me when to look, liquidity tells me where and price action tells me when to pull the trigger.
Update: $SPX Short
The 12H and 18H BBs worked beautifully.
We saw some stop loss hunting before the real move kicked in. That's why, when trading BBs, it's important to place your SL beyond the entire FVG.
Update: $SPX Short
The 12H BB is struggling to deliver the bearish reaction it's supposed to. That's a sign of underlying bullish momentum.
Bearish BBs tend to work well in bearish environments and fail in bullish ones. The opposite is true for bullish BBs.
That's why so many people dismiss breaker blocks as bullshit. But if you ignore market context, you'll never be able to exploit the edge they offer.
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$AMD
I'm short.
I'll load the boat at $230 when price hits the 1M BB. The path could be different, but the target is the same.
In June 2021 I got liquidated on the exact day Bitcoin bottomed.
I knew nothing about cycles back then and my plan felt genius: borrow dollars on Ledn against my bitcoin and use them to buy more bitcoin.
Then BTC fell from almost $65,000 in April, and on May 21 they emailed me a margin call. I didn't add collateral
On June 22, Ledn market sold 1.90 BTC to close my two loans, $56,687 in total. I had 2.36 BTC as collateral and got 0.46 back.
That same day BTC printed $28,800 and it never traded that low again in 2021. Five months later it was at $69,000, about where it trades today, which puts the 1.90 BTC they sold at roughly $131,000.
I kept those emails for five years without opening them until today. That liquidation is what pushed me to learn trading properly, starting with how to control risk, until I found my edge in cycles.
Big thanks to @Albert_618 for organizing this "worst trade" competition. Transparency and accountability are the scarcest assets in this space.
"My Worst Trade" Competition
Pain is temporary but the Screenshot stays forever.
Most people - including me - mostly show their wins. This creates a wrong impression and is misleading.
To get into reality - and have some fun - a special competition:
7 Traders will show their worst Trade. The one they would Love to forget but that stays in memory forever.
Lineup:
@blackwidowbtc
@Market_Emotions
@MikeRosko
@ConvexEdgeX
@lucas67261771
@minduckchan
@CryptoChaseCase
Every mentioned Trader will quote this post and flex their worst Trade. Time to shine!
How to vote and enter:
Follow me @Albert_618
Follow the Trader you're voting for
Repost this Post
Comment their @ below
You must follow both @Albert_618 and the trader you vote for to win. One comment per account. Duplicates and alt accounts don't count.
Prizes are sponsored by @breakoutprop
The winning Trader: $25K Turbo account + 1 free week in the 618ers paid Discord
Random voter 1: $25K Turbo account + 1 free week
Random voter 2: 1 free week in the paid Discord
Voting closes Mon 16 Nov, 10:00 UTC.
Winners announced the same day. I guess the RR here is fine!
Good Luck!
Update: $MRNA
I'm taking profits on this long. It's been a hell of a ride since the DCL on August 10 at $60.
We now have three consecutive candles closing below the ascending trendline, which, according to my rules, is a signal to exit.
I'm not looking to short just yet.
Update: $MRNA
If a swing high forms tomorrow, I'll consider the bearish retest complete and look to short the resumption of the downtrend.
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Update: $SPX Short
The 12H BB is struggling to deliver the bearish reaction it's supposed to. That's a sign of underlying bullish momentum.
Bearish BBs tend to work well in bearish environments and fail in bullish ones. The opposite is true for bullish BBs.
That's why so many people dismiss breaker blocks as bullshit. But if you ignore market context, you'll never be able to exploit the edge they offer.
Update: $NDX
The 4th daily cycle left translated and failed as expected. Now in Week 31, right in the WCL timing window, we're seeing a bounce, and the WCL appears to be taking shape.
The strength of this bounce will tell us whether a blowoff top is still on the table or we're heading lower into the 4YCL.
If the bullish scenario plays out, my hedge shorts from yesterday will get stopped out, my $RUT long should pay off, and I'll consider going long $NDX if we get a close above the second trendline.
Update: $NDX
The 4th daily cycle of the weekly cycle played out as expected: left-translation and failure into the WCL timing window.
We're now in Week 31, so I expect the WCL to form in the coming days.
From there, I'll be watching the bounce closely. It should tell us whether there's still enough fuel in the tank for a blowoff top or we're heading lower into the 4YCL.
Update: $BTC
Day 28 of the failed daily cycle. Price continues to move lower as expected, heading into the next DCL timing window around December 14.
The market's mixed signals haven't cleared up yet.
Yesterday, I shorted $SPX as bearish setups emerged.
Meanwhile, the Russell has given all the confirmations of a new weekly cycle, and my long remains open.
Last week, it made a hard retest, briefly wicking below the previous low before recovering quickly. It's now back above the trendline and the 10 SMA, with a bullish Bressert crossover.
Patience and strict risk management are key here. I expect the indices to sync up sooner rather than later.
Update: $RUT
The DCL delivered. From here, we take what the market gives us.
Two scenarios on the table:
1. The macro top is in. This is just a dead cat bounce. If the trendline breaks down, we take profits and look to go short.
2. The macro top is not in. We ride this move into new ATHs and take profits much higher.
Both scenarios have predefined setups. No need to predict. Just react.
Update: $NDX
Shorting as we speak.
