CryptoBTH retweeted
As mentioned this is still very much adhering to range bound pa
And is great for those with the system, skills and initiative to play it as it churns
I personally wouldn't be shocked if we raided the 80s from here
And would be welcome to another stab at the local highs
I am playing both sides
I still favour priortising shorts in range but you do you
Cheers
$BTC
Equities ripped for months. BTC (the "risk asset") sat muted, even sold off while stocks and gold made highs.
Now it's catching up. Two ways to read that:
Bull: lagging beta closing the gap. Spot demand + call-heavy positioning = fuel.
Risk: catch-up trades are late arrivals. If it's leverage chasing (funding hot, IV rising), it's fragile. And midterms in Nov = policy noise + vol event landing right when quarterly expiry strips the gamma cushion.
Catch-up is real. Just know if you're the demand or the exit liquidity.
NFA
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Good start to the year with 9% bump in January
Let's get this bread my guys
Range bound and farming yield at the moment
Starting to plan for next year, after expiries, hopefully some volatility, take advantage of it, plan ahead.
Markets probably bump in January with relief on shutdown. New year, people maybe wanting to revolve issues?
Anyways, hope we all have a great festive period
Happy new year to you all!
Especially to those who have stuck around.
Don’t back your bags up yet.
It’s our year, I’m certain of it, don’t pivot
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Merry Christmas from mine to yours when it comes.
A year of ups and downs but another one in the books.
Legitimacy gains. The best is yet to come
Love, BTH
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My only hope with non trending markets is we irradiate the fake charlatans
Target on their back
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Range bound and farming yield at the moment
Starting to plan for next year, after expiries, hopefully some volatility, take advantage of it, plan ahead.
Markets probably bump in January with relief on shutdown. New year, people maybe wanting to revolve issues?
Anyways, hope we all have a great festive period
Markets look pretty much range bound to me and not anticipating anything dramatic either way now as we close out this year.
We've saw 3-month basis fall on major exchanges meaning traders are no longer paying to be synthetically long. A sign of de-leveraging which we've saw in OI dropping. Deribit leading the way I would say is a positive.
With the vol selling that we've witnessed, and lack of OI, a purposeful short squeeze seems somewhat unlikely, without macro factor (gets easier after end of this week)
That being said, it's somewhat a good position if you're bullish to buy as market's under positioned and likelihood of substantial drawdown sub $80k is lower.
Skews infer that could be plausible trade of build position and buy puts to hedge with steeper IVs witnessed on the left wing.
Whether you like to admit it, $BTC isn’t in Kansas anymore and with the institutional adoption, comes bigger fish
Someone who I recommend following is my guy @ThalexGlobal
Launching products and giving sharp analysis on the daily.
91.3k reached.
The expected move, a day ahead of target.
The collective predictive power of options market makers is available in the straddle price 24/7. You can express this volatility forecast as two simple break-even lines on a chart.
Trading the straddle = Trading the move.
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Markets look pretty much range bound to me and not anticipating anything dramatic either way now as we close out this year.
We've saw 3-month basis fall on major exchanges meaning traders are no longer paying to be synthetically long. A sign of de-leveraging which we've saw in OI dropping. Deribit leading the way I would say is a positive.
With the vol selling that we've witnessed, and lack of OI, a purposeful short squeeze seems somewhat unlikely, without macro factor (gets easier after end of this week)
That being said, it's somewhat a good position if you're bullish to buy as market's under positioned and likelihood of substantial drawdown sub $80k is lower.
Skews infer that could be plausible trade of build position and buy puts to hedge with steeper IVs witnessed on the left wing.
GM!
I can remember far worse conditions than we have currently but currently less active in the books than I’ve been in some time.
Took some time away after the nukes a month or so ago and tried to get long a few times with no avail since
If you get on the wrong train / side of the market, getting off early is always cheaper than staying on until the end
Time to lock in for what’s left of the year. These Christmas presents aren’t going to buy themselves
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So I’ve been thinking of a theory for awhile…
We’ve seen unprecedented vol selling for some time on BTC. Whether you think it drives price or not, I have no doubt players use it to leverage direction
If we’re truly bullish, you want to try accumulate as much as possible whilst you can, right? How do you help suppress price? You sell vol and options.
Past 4/5 months, they sold calls. They are selling puts now.
They’re leveraging it and keeping us where they want.
They are accumulating. Whether it’s December or fy26 the future is here.
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I’ve continued to build a position around the $100k mark.
It’s a risky one, with a lot on the line. But I’m sticking by my thesis and $98k should hold.
When backs against the wall we stick by our conviction and bet more
Past few days have been full of great opportunities.
When we saw the downtick to sub $100ks, large players were leaning in to the higher put prices and selling them.
Q4 is live.
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Flows have been strange too.
Saw some out of the ordinary longing with great resolve.
Maybe someone knows something?
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