co-founder & ceo @sproutfi_xyz | making sense of ai, crypto & global markets | livestreams: mon-fri · 10 am et

Manhattan, NY
Joined May 2022
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ai is a race to raise the most money and last the longest. within 1–2 years, mid-sized ai companies will start going out of business. until one fails, the ai debt bubble keeps inflating. which one runs out of cash first? 👇
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btc etf holders bought at ~$81.5k on average. $773m walked out thu-fri when price broke it. now everyone fears a december hike that's ~80% priced in. who's on the other side? someone betting the worst is priced in. tomorrow's fomc is the first test. we go higher from there.
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data says vs timeline says, fed week edition data: etfs +88k btc since july. price back above the 50-week ma. timeline: "putting 50% of my net worth in btc was one of my biggest mistakes" me: not worried. 78k, 79k, 80k, it's all loading zone.
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ai is asking for a lot of money. is anyone still buying? • anthropic s-1: $16.3b h1 revenue, $80.7b net loss • $META wants up to $95b in new stock for ai • tsmc may hike ai chip packaging prices up to 20% • blackrock eyes a yen stablecoin link in japan live 10 am et
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calling it now: within 2–3 years (maybe sooner) someone will get a marriage certificate with a robot. 🤖💍 save this. i'll be pulling this clip back out when it happens. would you?
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i fed anthropic's s-1 to grok. 5 things almost everyone is ignoring: 1. insiders who got in at ~$0.26 to $6 a share are named sellers. anthropic's pre-ipo perp on hyperliquid trades ~$113, so they're up ~20x to 400x+. think about who's on the other side of your day-one buy. 2. the "lockup" leaks. some insiders can sell 10% on the first trading day, with more releases on days 27, 48, 62 and 76. 3. dilution is built in. broadcom's $42b deal converts to stock at 10 to 15% below market. that comes out of your stake. 4. your vote can't win. public shares are capped at 49.9% of votes, and the founders hold a fixed 50.1%. 5. the $80b loss is mostly an accounting markdown. the real risk is $125b+ in compute bills, and 48% of revenue flowing through amazon, google and microsoft, who are also rivals.
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zoom out: taiwan $ewt +67% ytd, korea $ewy +58%, brazil $ewz was +34% ytd going into today and is still +6% after the crash. it's not the market, it's the leverage that's fucking people up
One of the most insane charts we've seen. Even as Brazilian stocks plunge -30% after their Presidential election, Brazil's volatility index is DOWN -40%. Brazil has lost -$200B of market cap today, yet "volatility" is collapsing. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)
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BTC跌破8万,机构却在抄底? 今天和 @alvin0617 聊: • 周末8亿美元爆仓,8万是底部还是新阻力? • Strive一口气再买6182枚BTC,上周BTC ETF重回净流入 • 比特币和黄金今年双双垫底,油价和加息预期是元凶吗? 🔴 美东时间10点直播|守护者回声 ep.102
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$GRASS is running today on oct 21, i said: "grass will be ripping face." the thesis? ai needs fresh data - and GRASS already has relationships with companies buying training data. here’s why I was more bullish on GRASS than PEARL
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AI's $140B Cash Crunch, Oil Near $115, Bitcoin ETFs Just Lost $636M | Beyond the Charts with Meina (October 23rd) xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1vJpPNbXl…
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AI 泡沫还是融资危机?网络安全警报频发。油价重回112,BTC能扛住吗?w/ @alvin0617【守护者回声 ep.101】 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1RKZzBdPB…
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is the ai bubble bursting? you can be bullish on ai and still worry about who survives the buildout. from today’s livestream: $CRWV, $INTC, and why I’m watching financing risk as closely as ai demand.
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was rewatching my youtube channel intro video from 3 years ago. i can barely recognize myself lol. so much has changed since then. looking back at the journey: 8 years in data science 6 years in media (instagram -> youtube -> twitter) 4 years in crypto & entrepreneurship time flies. i'm glad i'm still learning and growing. youtube.com/watch?v=Bj-u7yoD…
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the next 10 days could be extremely volatile for stocks, with two major events approaching: - oct 28: fomc decision - nov 3: midterm elections both could have major implications for market liquidity and risk appetite. still think this is a good window to accumulate $INTC. would actually appreciate it if the market gave me a lower entry price.
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The AI Debt Crisis Spreads: Korea's IPO −30%, $110 Oil, What Is Wall Street Missing? | Beyond the Charts with Meina (Oct 20th) xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yKAPwWZe…
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黑色星期一还是黄金买点?AI暴跌后,美股和BTC接下来怎么走? w/ @alvin0617 【守护者回声 ep.100】 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1wGWjlYOn…
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what a depressing timeline: - endless videos of riots in france - fears of the stock market "black monday" tomorrow everyone's bracing for the worst.
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