Since September the $AERO share of spot RWA volume (green) has been inching closer and closer to parity with the $UNI share (blue). ty @Blockworks for graph This is before they deploy on mainnet, RH chain, Arbitrum, Elysium (?👀?) etc... Not extremely hard to see where this trend is heading.

I'm way less concerned about whether we're a little higher or lower in the next few weeks than where all the value will flow in the next few months. I can stomach a dip to $75k on $BTC and 20%+ lower on alts. I can't stomach being sidelined for the on chain finance/tokeknization trend nearly a decade in the making. You're not going to 10x your portfolio selling $BTC at $81k and buying $75k or buying $81k and selling $85k. Nobody has extreme macro edge here; we live in unpredictable, volatile, crazy times. If the vocal bears end up right, they'll have been sidelined since summer anyway and if the overlevered bulls are right, they'll still blow up eventually. My only actionable advice is to shrink your bet sizing a little to take the volatility into account, eliminate the bloat and levered beta from your portfolio where you have no edge, and heavily concentrate into high conviction, idiosyncratic bets with near term catalysts. For me that looks like sizing down $BTC and even $HYPE exposure in favour of kinetiq:native for the upcoming Elysium launch, $AERO for the upcoming Aero multi-chain expansion, and $DRV for on chain options TAM expansion. Maybe for you it's $PRL and $NEAR. Very unpopular take, but $ZEC and $HYPE currently trade more like majors and levered beta than "idiosyncratic bets with near term catalysts that you have edge on". Doesn't make them bad long term investments at all, just don't feel the need to be overweight them at this time when they lack asymmetry. My example here would be if we're risk off, $HYPE could be $60 by EOY, and $100 if we're risk on. Pretty symmetric. kinetiq:native could be $0.15 if we're risk off, but it could be 5-10x higher if Elysium goes well. We want alts that behave like OTM calls, not 1.5x levered perps. TLDR: Figure out where the next $1trn of value will flow on chain, place your bets (sized to survive), and let the macro LARPs chop each other up. The correctness of your allocations will more heavily dictate your 2027 performance than your current exposure level.

$AERO strength looks extremely notable after this micro-dump. Think anything sub $1 will look cheap prior to the update in a few days. Please don't dilute me but the full range $AERO USDC pool is deceptively one of the best sources of yield in the industry right now. 31% full range yield is approximately the same as 300% yield on a $0.75-1.15 concentrated LP pool adjusted for IL. Framed differently, 31% APR full range LP outperforms IL if $AERO ends within $0.75 and $1.15 in 1 week. I think there's a good chance we're north of $1.15 in a week, but still one of very few worthwhile LPs available right now if you're less bullish.

base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 looks primed to rip higher over the next 10 days before the Aero upgrade I had previously weighted base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 slightly lower in my core positions because I worried that the tokenomics were too complicated for institutions and whales to understand and feel comfortable bidding. @citrini not only included base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 in their token basket, they had it at the same weight as $HYPE and nearly twice the weight of ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984. Don't think the market has fully digested how much that stamp of approval means. I also worried that there could be some last minute delay, as the previous Aero launch date delay led to a considerable nuke. With the greenlight for launch on 10/21 and the recognition from Citrini, both of those risks are removed, and I now feel considerably higher conviction on base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631. Previously to the Citrini piece, I expected most people to stay sidelined and wait for the flywheel to fundamentally prove itself post Aero upgrade. @wagmiAlexander expects spot volumes to roughly double by EOY, so that was my timeline where a rerating would organically occur without speculative fervor. I'm now of the opinion that this recent bit of attention will cause price to lead fundamentals, and we might actually get a real pre-upgrade breakout. The early August 2025 price action where base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 doubled from $0.75 to $1.50 in just 10 days is a good example of what I think could happen in the pre-upgrade window. Due to how much supply is locked in LPs and veAERO, base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 is naturally extremely reflexive. It's very difficult to justify why ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 is trading at 5x the market cap of base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631. I don't expect parity until after the upgrade, but I do think there's a world where base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 rerates to 50% of ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 market cap as the sidelined scramble to get exposure prior to the 10/21 upgrade. This coincides nicely with a run at the previous base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 ATH of ~$2.30.