Cycle Forecaster 🔄 | Chartist 📈 | Macroeconomic observer 📊 - Analyzing economic cycles and trends - NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, ALWAYS CONDUCT YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
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Joined February 2017
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The Everything Melt Up Is Still ON - This is another opportunity - We will party more like its the late 1990s (A "comeback" Thread)
The market has been nothing short of brutal in H2, so I feel obligated to share some data I’m looking at in regards to the “everything melt up”
1) Firstly, if anyone has ever traded or studied historical melt ups you will know that during these you will see inter cyclical parabolic moves followed by brutal and aggressive pullbacks. This is what we're seeing right now in markets based on the data below (Yes its still the 1990s all over again)
Analog match below is fairly on point and indicates that the pullback we have seen ends fairly soon!
NFA
$SPY $QQQ $BTC $ETH
10) Lastly, The Nasdaq is now -12% ish from the October high, and since 1971 it has closed 10% below a record high 32 times.
23 of the 30 with a full year of data were higher 12 months later, with a median gain of +21%. The misses were real bear markets like 1973, 2000 and 2022, and as the stress gauges show, that’s not what this looks like (See financial stress chart in the thread)
BACH retweeted
$IREN $CIFR $WULF $HUT
Always returns to a ≈3σ std dev, which historically has meant new ATH - They like to bottom between -1.5 to -2.0σ
On a relative basis the argument from bears regarding IREN's $6bn offering "Recently" is incredible low quality. On a "ATM as % of Market Cap" the offering were not outrageous.
New ATH for WGMI top holdings looks very reasonable in 2026 - NFA
BACH retweeted
IREN's 2GW Sweetwater Hub (Sweetwater 1 and Sweetwater 2) has been included in ERCOT's Batch Zero process as Base Load. Sweetwater 1 (1,400MW) and Sweetwater 2 (600MW) form part of our >5GW global data center development portfolio.
At Sweetwater 1, construction of 300MW of data center capacity continues, with delivery targeted for Q4 2027.
Read more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-file…
$IREN $CIFR $WULF $HUT
Always returns to a ≈3σ std dev, which historically has meant new ATH - They like to bottom between -1.5 to -2.0σ
On a relative basis the argument from bears regarding IREN's $6bn offering "Recently" is incredible low quality. On a "ATM as % of Market Cap" the offering were not outrageous.
New ATH for WGMI top holdings looks very reasonable in 2026 - NFA
$IREN
No change for $IREN
Last week we notified members that the Z score had reached +2 STD DEV. That means adding stops or trimming begins depending on your strategy
We have now reset on a Z score basis given today’s news on convertibles and we are back down at 1.0 STD DEV!
The target remain +3 STD DEV and thereby ATH ✅
Context in the post above🚀
Opportunity today✅