I forecast significant weather in DC & the Mid-Atlantic. GMU and PSU alumnus, Cat dad and Photographer. Instagram: dc_storms
Washington, DC
Joined May 2021
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🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
As an El Niño-fueled subtropical jet stream roars to life, a surge of Pacific moisture up to 3x normal levels is poised to reach the U.S. in early November.
This could bring more flood threats to the West, severe weather to the central states and warmth to the East.
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
El Niño snowfall patterns 1950-2026.
I anticipate a lot of “winter cancel” opinions after Christmas, but the party will just be getting started!
History says interior Northeast first, then the coast follows late season.
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
The European Model is locked in.
It is not wavering on this historicly early Polar Vortex disruption.
Exciting times ahead!
#Winteriscoming #PolarVortex #wxtwitter #wxX
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
My late hit hurricane/Thanksgiving-Christmas cold idea rests on believing the pattern that is most conducive to hurricanes hits around the gulf in the late hurricane season, repeated 40-60 days later during that time. Left Decembers with the hits, right Decembers without them
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
Much of the U.S. is leaning toward a wet end to October into the beginning of November! Above-normal precipitation is broadly favored, with the strongest probabilities focused over parts of coastal southern California and the Southwest, and lower chances elsewhere.
ALT The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued October 22, 2026 valid October 30 to November 5, 2026 depicts broad chances of above-normal precipitation over much of the U.S. 60 to 70 percent chances of above-normal precipitation are indicated over coastal southern California, southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. 50 to 60 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of California, stretching through the southern half of Nevada and Utah, into Oklahoma and most of Texas. Broader 40 to 50 percent chances and 33 to 40 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of the U.S., with the exception of Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and New England, where near-normal precipitation is favored.
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
There are also signals that point to a rather wintery winter with several visits from the snow train! ❄️ 🚂
1) Snow Advance Index in Eurasia is extremely robust. (Plot by @Recretos )
The second image illustrates why this is important.
2) Long range models suggest an increasingly +PNA and -NAO coupling… if correct, that does not spell mild weather. (Plots from Euro Seasonal)
3) This is the first time in history we have a Strong El Niño COMBINED WITH a +QBO and -PDO. That means all past strong El Niño events had a different set-up than we have this winter. So, looking to historical analogues will lead you astray.
I don’t claim to know exactly what will happen this winter, but I have grown increasingly skeptical on the old “canned ham” mild winter forecasts due to El Niño.
One thing is for sure though; El Niño will provide the moisture. If the other teleconnections work together to even provide average winter temperatures, that means snow opportunities… and specifically I see many opportunities for Miller Type Nor’Easters given what I just laid out above ☝️
#winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX
There are a lot of signals that point to a 'mild' winter for Maryland, but the long-range Euro Weeklies have been consistent on forecasting Baltimore's first snow chance to come in the next 30 days. Before Thanksgiving. 👇 The pattern of coastal storms we have set up so far this Autumn 'might' be an indication the model is onto something. Stay tuned...❄️🚂
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
El Niño will be the dominant driver of weather patterns across the planet into November, with a huge cell of rising air anchored over the east-central Pacific.
That will help fuel a burgeoning storm train across the U.S., potentially extending across the Atlantic into Europe.
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
Watch an impressive plume of tropical moisture surge into California and the West, shown with ECMWF's new higher-resolution open data.
Precipitable water could locally reach 3x normal for this time of year, fueling flooding and rare tornadoes in the Southwest starting Wednesday.
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
What does a strong El Nino mean for winter in the Mid Atlantic? Look to the past. Strong El Ninos tend to weaken the Polar Vortex in the second half of winter. What does that mean? Cold air gets to spill into the United States. El Nino also tends to produce an active southern branch of the jet (more coastal storms). So while it might not be a cold winter here in MD, there could be times in mid to late winter when the cold air hooks up with one or two of the coastal storms. That's why I'm saying a mild winter does NOT mean there won't be any snowstorms. All Aboard! ❄️🚂 🙂 Stay tuned...
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
Woah now... Don't threaten me with a good time! 🤩
Both the latest GFS and European Ensembles are suggesting the Polar Vortex is going to be doing exactly what a winter lover would want to see from it in early November! Big stretch towards North America!
Will that pattern lock in??
If we can get these stretches to continue, Winter is going to be very exciting in the Eastern US.
#winteriscoming #PolarVortex #wxtwitter #wxX
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
Here's a four-minute timeline of yesterday's shelf cloud at the Marine Corps War Memorial. It moved fast! @capitalweather
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
El Niño's massive standing wave of rising air is forecast to shift and expand eastward from late October into November.
This will probably help fire up the subtropical jet stream, increasing storm frequency across the southern and eastern U.S. next month.
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
The Polar Vortex is preparing to do a big stretch towards North America just before Halloween.
I'm sure Dr @judah47 will have much to say about this in his blog this week.
#PV #PolarVortex #wxtwitter #wxX
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
Will need to keep a close eye on another potential strong coastal system which is expected to develop this weekend & slowly drift northwest through the upcoming week. Strong onshore flow will lead to additional beach erosion & coastal flooding. Rain amounts will depend on exact track of storm. Euro AIFS continues to bump NW on rainfall for late week. #EcWx
🇺🇸DC⚡️Storms retweeted
12z euro Ai says mid Atlantic mauler gets the rains from it up to Southern New England by Wednesday night…and it rains off and on through next weekend. A 4-5 day nor’easter. Outer banks north to Boston.
Just one model. One model run.
Not a forecast.
Let’s see what kind of crazy solution euro shows us.
He’s running now.
