
CPA | NFL DFS | Data-driven value analyst | Updated models each slate | Analytics only, not gambling advice | #NFLDFS Discord 猬囷笍 https://xitter.cf/t.co/kkZUHrQbIn
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Week 7 DFS games to target and stacks to consider 馃
GB at DET, 53.5
Three points clear of the slate, split 28.25 to 25.25. Green Bay draws the best matchup on my board at quarterback, receiver and tight end. Love at $6,000, Golden at the same price and Kraft at $4,700 all grade near the top. Favorite stack of the weekend is Love with Golden and Kraft. Gibbs carries the highest ceiling on the board, LaPorta at $4,800 is the cheap way into the other side.
SF at ATL, 49.5
Split 26.0 to 23.5. Purdy carries the highest quarterback ceiling on the slate and San Francisco has no healthy receiver worth rostering, so the stack is Purdy with Kittle and McCaffrey and nothing else. London is the bring back at $7,500 and under 12 percent owned. Penix at $5,300 is the cheapest real quarterback on the board at under 3 percent.
LAR at LV, 48.5
Split 25.75 to 22.75. Cousins at $5,800 is my best value quarterback on the slate and Tre Tucker at $5,200 owns the second best ceiling in his price tier, both under 5 percent. That is the cheapest stack on this list. Nacua did not practice Friday, a Sunday morning call at 27 percent. Kyren and Higbee at $3,500 are where that work goes if he sits, with no receiver behind him to take it.
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
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Week 7 DFS tournament board 馃幆
Brock Purdy $6,600
Jahmyr Gibbs $9,800
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800
Malik Nabers $6,800
Trey McBride $7,400
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
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Week 7 DFS value board 馃挼
QB Kirk Cousins $5,800
RB Blake Corum $5,000
WR Malik Washington $4,900
TE Dalton Schultz $3,600
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
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Week 7 DFS cash board 馃挵
QB
Joe Burrow $6,900
Jordan Love $6,000
Brock Purdy $6,600
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs $9,800
Christian McCaffrey $7,600
Kyren Williams $7,000
WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800
Matthew Golden $6,000
Malik Nabers $6,800
TE
Trey McBride $7,400
Isaiah Likely $5,300
Tucker Kraft $4,700
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
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Week 6 Ledger results.
Cash 7 of 12
Value 3 of 4
Leverage 1 of 4
Tournament 0 of 5
Carnell Tate 19.0 at $5,000, 6.9 percent owned.
Blake Corum 14.0 at $4,800, 3.9 percent owned.
Season to date on cash: 23 of 36.
Week 6 DFS leverage plays 馃搱
QB Jacoby Brissett, $5,800, 3.1 percent owned
Highest ceiling of any quarterback under $6,000 on my board. Arizona is a double digit underdog and he has produced volume in every loss this year.
RB Bucky Irving, $6,200, 7.0 percent owned
The only back on my board with a ceiling above 12 at under 10 percent owned. Mayfield is out, Tampa is running it with a backup at quarterback, and Irving is at 5.3 a carry with 10 broken tackles.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson, $4,500, 1.6 percent owned
Top third ceiling for the position at under two percent owned. He cleared my bar last week at 11.3 and nobody noticed.
TE Dallas Goedert, $3,900, 1.6 percent owned
Less than a quarter the ownership of any tight end above him on my board. Both Philadelphia backup tight ends are questionable, Barkley and Shipley are out so there is no receiving back either, and a backup quarterback throws short.
Full Week 6 Ledger Scores
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Week 6 DFS tournament plays 馃弳
QB Josh Allen, $7,500
RB Bijan Robinson, $8,700
WR Puka Nacua, $8,100
WR Drake London, $7,000
TE Brock Bowers, $7,500
Highest ceiling at every position I have. Allen tops the board at a ceiling score of 36.5, nine clear of anyone else at any position, and Nacua is next at 33.3.
Full Week 6 Ledger Scores
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Week 6 DFS value plays 馃幈
QB Kirk Cousins, $5,400
My QB3 on the slate and the best value score at the position. Cheapest way into the highest total on the board.
RB Blake Corum, $4,800
This game has the largest difference implied point totals on the slate. Rams should get a commanding lead and Corum should see more work.
WR Carnell Tate, $5,000
My top rated receiver under $5,500 and he sits at 3 percent owned. Looking for a bounce back from last weeks disaster.
TE Tyler Higbee, $3,400
Higbee has been a consistent double digit scorer since Ferguson has left the lineup. WIth the Rams having the highest implied total of the week, Higbee is a target for me.
Full Week 6 Ledger Scores
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Week 6 DFS cash board 馃挵
QB
Josh Allen $7,500
Caleb Williams $6,200
Kirk Cousins $5,400
RB
Kyren Williams $6,800
Bijan Robinson $8,700
D'Andre Swift $6,700
WR
Puka Nacua $8,100
Drake London $7,000
Chris Olave $7,600
TE
Isaiah Likely $4,800
Trey McBride $7,200
Brock Bowers $7,500
Full Week 6 Ledger Scores
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Week 6 DFS games to target and stacks to consider 馃
BUF at LV, 53.5
Two points clear of the slate, split 29.5 to 24.0. Allen and Cousins both grade near the top of my board, and Cousins at $5,400 is $2,100 cheaper in the same game. Favorite stack of the weekend is Cousins and Bowers. Second is Allen and Coleman if Moore sits again, with Coleman at $4,900 as a high upside dart. Cook and Jeanty are both live. Everyone will be in this game, so get in cheap.
NO at NYG, 45.5
Split 23.5 to 22.0, tightest on the slate. Winston is my QB5 at $5,100 and Likely my TE2 at $4,800. Winston with Nabers and Likely is the most appealing stack here. Olave is live on the other side but I want the Giants half. Both backfields should be avoided, neither team has run the ball well this year.
ARI at LAR, 51.5
Split 32.0 to 19.5, the Rams have the highest implied team total on the board by five. Nacua and Kyren are my top rated receiver and back. The Rams defense is the reason I want this stack one sided, with Michael Wilson as the bring back rather than McBride, who draws the worst tight end matchup on my entire board. My favorite sleeper of the weekend is Blake Corum at $4,800. LA should blow ARI out and Corum should see the work late.
Full Week 6 Ledger Scores
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Week 5 leverage board results. Low owned plays, same top 33% bar.
HIT
鈥╓an'Dale Robinson 11.3, needed 10.9
MISS
鈥‥lijah Higgins 8.7, needed 9.7
鈥–arnell Tate 1.6
鈥≧J Harvey 0.7
Season 1 of 4.
Week 5 DFS Leverage Plays 馃搱
Carnell Tate, WR, TEN, $5,300, ~ 2.5%
RJ Harvey, RB, DEN, $5,200, ~ 7.9%
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, TEN, $4,500, ~ 1.4%
Elijah Higgins, TE, ARI, $2,700, ~ 1.3%
Every one of these is the highest rated player at his price in my model and projected under 10 percent owned.
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Week 5 value board results. One play per position under a salary cap.
HIT
鈥↗acoby Brissett 26.3
MISS
鈥↘enyon Sadiq 0.3
鈥≧J Harvey 0.7
鈥–arnell Tate 1.6
1 of 4. Random is 33%.
Harvey and Tate were both top rated at their price and they combined for 2.3 points. Both were massive misses.
Season: 4 of 8.
Week 5 DFS Value Plays 馃幈
Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI, $5,500
RJ Harvey, RB, DEN, $5,200
Carnell Tate, WR, TEN, $5,300
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, NYJ, $3,800
Cheap enough to fund the top of your lineup. Brissett is the single best value on the board by my model.
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Week 5 tournament board results. 5 plays, bar was the top 10% at each position.
HIT
鈥↗ahmyr Gibbs 37.7, needed 18.6
鈥↗axon Smith-Njigba 22.8, needed 22.5
鈥═rey McBride 21.6, needed 21.5
MISS
鈥˙rock Purdy 17.2, needed 32.3
鈥ˋmon-Ra St. Brown 12.9, needed 22.5
3 of 5. Chalk went 2 of 5.
Best tournament week of the season.
Week 5 DFS Tournament Plays 馃弳
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET, $9,800
Brock Purdy, QB, SF, $6,500
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET, $7,900
Trey McBride, TE, ARI, $6,700
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA, $8,800
Five names, any position. These are the highest ceilings on the slate, not the safest plays.
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Week 5 cash board results. 12 plays, bar was the top 33% at each position.
HIT
鈥↗ahmyr Gibbs 37.7
鈥↗acoby Brissett 26.3
鈥↗ordan Love 25.3
鈥↗axon Smith-Njigba 22.8
鈥═rey McBride 21.6
鈥⊿am LaPorta 19.8
鈥―'Andre Swift 17.3
鈥ˋmon-Ra St. Brown 12.9
MISS
鈥ˋaron Rodgers 22.0
鈥℅eorge Kittle 7.4
鈥∕ichael Wilson 7.3
鈥≧J Harvey 0.7
8 of 12. Chalk went 9 of 12.
Season: 16 of 24. Chalk 18 of 24
Week 5 DFS Cash Board 馃挵
QB
Jacoby Brissett, ARI, $5,500
Jordan Love, GB, $5,700
Aaron Rodgers, PIT, $5,300
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,800
D鈥橝ndre Swift, CHI, $6,200
RJ Harvey, DEN, $5,200
WR
Michael Wilson, ARI, $6,200
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $7,900
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, $8,800
TE
Trey McBride, ARI, $6,700
Sam LaPorta, DET, $4,900
George Kittle, SF, $5,200
These are the names with the top ledger scores on the week and the players I鈥檓 targeting as safe picks.
dfsledger.netlify.app
MNF DFS Showdown 馃弳
My two favorite flex plays for tonight鈥檚 high profile game are Keon Coleman and Blake Corum.
Coleman is the obvious play considering how banged up the Bills WR room is.
Corum has been trending down since the start of the season and as a result will have a low ownership. His average salary has taken a hit as well which now provides much more flexibility to lineups. Corum has a good matchup and can fall into the end zone in a game that is expected to be a shootout.
Allen or Puka have to be in the CPT slot for any lineup built.
Week 5 DFS Leverage Plays 馃搱
Carnell Tate, WR, TEN, $5,300, ~ 2.5%
RJ Harvey, RB, DEN, $5,200, ~ 7.9%
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, TEN, $4,500, ~ 1.4%
Elijah Higgins, TE, ARI, $2,700, ~ 1.3%
Every one of these is the highest rated player at his price in my model and projected under 10 percent owned.
dfsledger.netlify.app
Week 5 DFS Tournament Plays 馃弳
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET, $9,800
Brock Purdy, QB, SF, $6,500
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET, $7,900
Trey McBride, TE, ARI, $6,700
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA, $8,800
Five names, any position. These are the highest ceilings on the slate, not the safest plays.
dfsledger.netlify.app
Week 5 DFS Value Plays 馃幈
Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI, $5,500
RJ Harvey, RB, DEN, $5,200
Carnell Tate, WR, TEN, $5,300
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, NYJ, $3,800
Cheap enough to fund the top of your lineup. Brissett is the single best value on the board by my model.
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