NRE Commercial | eXp | DRE 01946829 Husband & Father of Four - USC Graduate & Football Alum
Los Angeles, CA
Joined June 2010
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Pro tip:
Call back.
Early in my career I was cold calling. Got hung up on 3 times in a row. I just hit redial each time and kept calling back.
Guy finally said sure let’s meet and gave me my first listing.
Rents in SoCal have been very SOFT for two years.
Hopefully this means the upswing is to come.
Here are the top markets for apartment demand right now. It's a diverse mix of markets from all regions.
1) DFW still leads the way, with a big 25.4k units absorbed in the past 12 months. Phoenix next at 18.6k.
2) Coastal markets are representing. New York City and Northern New Jersey rank #3-4. Strong demand there, too.
3) Austin, Atlanta, Houston, Denver, Charlotte, Orlando, Tampa, San Antonio and Miami all Sun Belt / Mountain markets on the list. Nashville and Raleigh just missed the Top 15, but solid. In most of these spots, demand is tracking above supply for first time in several years.
4) SoCal cracks into the Top 15, as well, with nice numbers in long-beleaguered L.A. plus San Diego. Still haven't seen much rent momentum in SoCal (especially compared to NorCal) but good to see solid demand numbers.
How does one factor this scenario into the offering price?
Long term tenant (Non Rent Controlled), but protected under CA state law (just cause eviction)
Meaning eviction would take place post closing by the buyer.
6 months late on rent
Current rent $1500 - market is $2200.
Unit needs to be renovated.
How much of a discount are you asking for?
Underwriting a deal where I'd come in as an LP.
11 units, 1964 construction, California.
Rents 12.2% below market on base rent.
$2,250,000. 6.89% going-in cap.
70% LTV at 6.45%, one year IO.
LP terms - 8% pref, pari passu with the GP, 100% return of capital, then 70/30 to the LP.
No acquisition, asset management or disposition fees.
5 year hold.
Exit underwritten at a 7.00% cap. 11 bps ABOVE what we're buying at - no cap compression in the model.
Pencils to 16.8% IRR and 2.05x.
Candidly, the catch - the pref eats every dollar of cash flow years 1 through 4.
66% of the profit is the exit.
Would you write the check?
This company is leap frogging competition right now.
Instinct in group chats
Starting today, early access users can add Instinct to group chats. A new Instinct joins and works for the whole group.
Making plans with friends usually turns into a frustrating back-and-forth over times and places. With Instinct in the group, you can explore options together, agree on a plan and get it done, all in one thread. Your friends don't even need Instinct to join in.
A few things it’s good at:
- Planning a weekend trip with friends, including dates and arrival times
- Coordinating logistics with a roommate
- Getting tickets as soon as they go on sale, then splitting the cost and sending one to everyone
- Running a fantasy league, keeping standings, settling rules disputes, and reminding everyone to set their lineups
- Sorting out carpool schedules - works out who’s driving each day from everyone’s schedules
- Organizing Thanksgiving, keeping track of who’s bringing what and ordering the shopping list
Group chats are new territory for Instinct, and we put a lot of care into getting the permissions right. Here’s how it works:
- Your personal Instinct asks before connecting with the group’s Instinct. You choose which groups to trust and can remove trust at any time.
- The group’s Instinct has no direct access to your personal accounts. Your Instinct checks your permissions before sharing information or taking action.
- If someone new joins the group, all pending replies from your Instinct are held until you grant it permission to share with the expanded group.
Group chats are available to all of our early access users, and will be rolling out to everyone soon. To join early access for this release, ask your Instinct to put you on the list.
Great work with @GajanNagaraj @anuda_w and @saagarwashere
Love this school. But what in the hell is this?
I would never be caught dead tackling someone like this.
Hearing chatter they may cancel all kids flag football games tonight.
Would’ve never been a thought when I was a kid.
Have we gotten smarter or are we raising kids to be soft?
I've been running my CRE business with an AI agent for the past week. Not a chatbot. An actual agent in my inbox and calendar.
What it's done in 8 days:
- Caught counteroffers the moment they landed and texted me who + price before I opened the email
- Built my Monday owner follow-up list so nothing slips through the cracks
- Tracked best-and-final across buyers and broke down price, net and terms for my sellers
- Writes the prompts I paste into Claude for SMCOs and offer analysis, so my tools feed each other
- Drafted my escrow opening emails, buyer side and seller side
- Turned 13 screenshots from my contacts into a protected list for a cancelled listing, then dug 11 more names out of 6 months of email
- Flagged that a Monday closing target conflicted with an SBA funding deadline before it cost us
- Drafted thank-you notes to every runner-up buyers' agent after we picked a winner - keeps those relationships warm without burning an hour
- Reads lease redlines and tells me what matters from the landlord's side
- Nudged me on a lease execution deadline at month-end before it slipped
Highest since July, 2002 is still a long time…24 years since we’ve seen these levels.
The 30-year Treasury yield ended the day at 5.64%.
That seems really high until you zoom out and learn that the yield was actually higher than this every single day in the 1980s and 92% of days in the 1990s.
Recency bias is a powerful force.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=GFl2yDa_…
Started using instinct this week.
Game changer.
I’m Noah, the founder of Instinct.
Instinct is a personal agent that we’ve been building for the past few months. The interface is simple: there are no new interfaces. You can text or call it. It's trained to use a phone and a computer in the same way that humans do. Instinct combines simplicity with extreme capability.
I’m thrilled with everything our early users are doing with Instinct. They’ve told us they’ve planned cross-country road trips, bought weekly groceries and concert tickets, and cancelled hundreds of dollars of subscriptions. Someone’s even planning their wedding with Instinct.
We want to make Instinct the best personal agent for all of you. It’s available in an invite-only beta program while we’re actively bringing up more compute. I’m excited to see what you all do with it.
instinct.co
Just finished a best-and-final on this listing with an AI assistant wired into my workflow.
Every counteroffer that hit my inbox, I got an instant text: who, price, net to seller. It read the signed PDFs.
Ran the net math across three different commission structures. Drafted the escrow kickoff emails and the runner-up thank-yous in my voice.
I review everything. Nothing sends without my OK.
Game changer.
